Ashley House Share Discussion Threads

[palwing13] 14/11/2017 11:14

Good long term prospects, but the wide spread is muting any short term trading. Shame....

[yump] 13/11/2017 11:28

Re: fundraising - that might be received very well because the rating would still be very low anywhere around this level and the business would be then be a bit less dependent on more complex forms of funding (which would obviously still be needed).

[microscope] 12/11/2017 14:07

Good to see you here junior, you're welcome and glad to know you agree, hi to nextlink another familiar name, and other new/old investors.

Hopefully now that (I think) the traders have been and gone, we can see a nice period of consolidation. The autumn statement is on 22nd, and a government in need of good news will probably be keen to mention this! Also there is the prospect of more meat on the bones from the company, and as you mention yump, possibility of press coverage, shares mag etc etc.

[yump] 12/11/2017 11:34

I wonder if there'll be some press coverage this weekend. If there is, I'm sure we'll find out in the morning.

[junior21] 12/11/2017 10:33

I became a shareholder last week after realising a decent pullback may not occur.

I wouldn't be surprised if a lid is kept on share price until the funding is sorted by way of an equity raise. This would give institutions chance to get on board in a meaningful way, without the price getting away from them.

Thanks to microscope for bringing this to my attention on the SPSY thread (I hope it'll turn out to be a thank you!)

[first_things] 10/11/2017 10:59

The brokers forecast (WH Ireland) for 2019 are £35.4 million turnover, £2 million profit and EPS of 3.5. These were issued in early October before the change in government policy. I would imagine the business is now more confident of exceeding these numbers and any update from the business will increase the coverage. A PE of 12 would mean a share price of 42p so it shows the upside from the current valuation.

[cockerhoop] 10/11/2017 09:38

Microscope,

I did message you yesterday via the advfn message service. I've a pdf copy of the note so can't post a link but could forward a copy.

[yump] 10/11/2017 09:06

This has probably been posted before as its from Sept '16, but there is a reference to WH Ireland making the forecasts available on the AH website, when there is more clarity.

Similarly, AH themselves said they will more actively engage with shareholders once things become clearer with the cap, which of course they have.

[microscope] 09/11/2017 14:32

If anyone has a link to the WHI note, I'll add it to the header. Thanks

[rocket fuel] 09/11/2017 14:15

5 bagger in the making here

[first_things] 09/11/2017 12:10

The pipeline is £197.9 million for 23 schemes within the housing business so an average of £8.5 million per project. The government policy change means these schemes can now be unlocked so we are set for rapid growth. If Ashley House confirms they will exceed market expectations the share price could easily gap up big time.

[yump] 09/11/2017 11:47

The indications from ASH were that the projects would get unlocked reasonably soon, but as we know that could be reasonably soon, or 'in the fullness of time', depending on gov. !

So I guess the forecasts could have been a year or more out, whereas now they now look fairly imminent.

'Fairly imminent' being better than 'reasonably soon', which is better than 'the fullness of time'

;-)

Looks like fairly orderly share movement at the moment.

[microscope] 09/11/2017 10:31

Looks like a few of us are in the same boat! My only caveat is that the WHI note (which I haven't seen) might assume earlier unlocking of projects. But not sure that matters, the year end will be bullish with an all systems go statement and projections well ahead of the last 2-3 years of frustration, waiting for the green light that they now have.

[yump] 09/11/2017 10:05

Well I don't like cliches much and hardly ever 'fill my boots' but this time I have. Just have to explain to the wife if it doesn't work out...

[first_things] 09/11/2017 09:37

Looks like this is breaking out and should see 15p short term.

Given the growth potential for both the housing and modular build business a PE of 12 looks reasonable (this is the only listed modular build business). It will be interesting to see when WH Ireland update their forecasts and how growth could look over the long term.


WH Ireland forecasts year end April 2018:

3p EPS on a PE of 8 = 24p
3p EPS on a PE of 12 = 36p

New short term trading range 24p - 36p?

[dave4545] 09/11/2017 08:23

Full offer to buy online 10.75p so it would not take much to see it back over 11p again

[yump] 08/11/2017 17:02

Not that much volume in money terms - got a few more. Will be interesting to see if stale bulls sell out and the price rises in quite an orderly manner. Although its not just a technical recovery, so perhaps a stale bull would think again about getting out, even if they were buying in the 6-8p region.

[yump] 08/11/2017 15:32

That seems a fair aim, would have thought its justified to break away from the 10p level as it came down from there in steps, in what looked like boredom, with nothing much changing and nothing much to look forward to in the near future.

[dave4545] 08/11/2017 12:39

No logic in selling now when a potential forward PER of just 3.

For me while the jury is out a sensible target should be PER of 5-6, 3 too low
and 8 too high until they are sure they can meet them so 15-18p target is fair.

[yump] 08/11/2017 12:33

I wonder where the first full commentary on ASH's changing situation will come from - there's plenty of tipsheets - would have thought one of the decent ones might pick it up soon.

[first_things] 08/11/2017 12:18

WH Ireland forecasts year end April 2018:

3p EPS on a PE of 8 = 24p
3p EPS on a PE of 12 = 36p

New short term trading range 24p - 36p?

Ashley House looks like they will gap short term to 15p+

[yump] 08/11/2017 10:04

I'd be surprised if any major shareholders wanted to sell out now or any time if revenue builds quickly, having put up with the stalled policy for so long...

[first_things] 08/11/2017 08:31

I think there are a couple of scenarios from here for Ashley House.

1. Big re-rating in share price to reflect change in fundamentals
2. Takeover from bigger company (large pipeline and experienced management team)

Watching with interest.........