Ashley House Share Discussion Threads

[first_things] 03/11/2017 10:39

I don't think any investors will sell at these levels based on the forecasts.

I still think it could end the week 15p+ and top 20p next week.

[yump] 03/11/2017 10:38

Am I imagining it, or has the rise forced the scale on the charts to change from 1p axis intervals to 2p ?

[dave4545] 03/11/2017 10:35

Just looks so strong now. I took some profits this week at 11.25p bid having paid just over 6p but it just does not look like falling back and more likely to trade in a new higher range. I have to remind myself of what happened to Zoo when sentiment changed to very positive it just going up and up from 9p to a 68p high in just a few months.
I have a free ride now so happy to leave them alone and enjoy any re-rating that comes their way. Hopefully to 15-20p this month or before xmas

[nextlink] 03/11/2017 10:31

Dropping the Ask didn't work.

[first_things] 03/11/2017 09:25

No sellers left at these levels so should start ticking up on new buys.

The next catalyst for a re-rating will be an rns from the business which is likely in the coming weeks.

[first_things] 03/11/2017 07:47

I can see this brewing and expecting the price to catch up with fundamentals soon.

3p EPS on a PE of 8 = 24p
3p EPS on a PE of 12 = 36p

New short term trading range 24p - 36p?

[hitsha1] 02/11/2017 20:19

Can we see 20p by next week

[microscope] 02/11/2017 17:02

Either way, another 1.4 million shares traded, the third time in the last week and a bit, over 1 million. That is incredibly healthy as stale bulls can get out without hurting the share price, and new blood introduced.

Doubtless there will be some traders too but rises on strong volume almost always have a better lasting impact, than rises on thin trading. The change of government policy means there is also substance behind the gains. All good :)

[dave4545] 02/11/2017 16:14

I'd say that was a buy too filled with profit takers in size.

[first_things] 02/11/2017 15:59

400,000 buy just gone through

[qs99] 02/11/2017 14:58

agreed and enjoying the ride....GLA

[first_things] 02/11/2017 11:36

If Ashley House issue an RNS saying they will exceed market expectations then the shares could gap up to 20p+. I think there is some "smart money" on the sideline that is looking to build a position. The government policy over the last two years means there is pent up demand for supported housing. Ashley House are in a great place having built up a pipeline of £200 million which can now progress.

[yump] 02/11/2017 11:25

So is my cash going to sit on the sidelines permanently with no pullback... ?!

[first_things] 02/11/2017 11:00

I think we could see 20p+ on positive announcements from the company.
3p EPS on a PE of 8 would mean a short term price target of 24p.
Looks like the value has been spotted in the market and demand is strong for the shares.

[cockerhoop] 01/11/2017 23:37

KCR,They also pick up the debt tab for any forward funding of the projects during the construction phase so the interest does appear inconsistent with the underlying debt (which accrues interest of approx 10%).

[topvest] 01/11/2017 20:46

Looks really good here now. I'm into a paper profit at 14.5p which would be nice as this has been one of my dog stocks for a few years. Not tempted to buy any more despite the good news, but also not tempted to sell until the 20-30p level. There are probably a few like me who will be inclined to sell at some point given the long and frustrating wait.

[paleje] 01/11/2017 20:39

Well found cottoner, I sincerely hope they qualify for them:)

[cottoner] 01/11/2017 20:29

Paleje

- the share option incentives you mentioned were issued via an RNS in Nov 2015.




Under the scheme, and with effect from 2 November 2015, the Company has granted share options to current Executive Directors and members of senior management in respect of 5,800,000 ordinary shares, representing 9.95% of the current issued share capital of the Company.


The options, which have an exercise price of 9.75p (which was approved at the AGM) will not be exercisable unless and until the Company's share price equals or exceeds 37p for a period of at least 90 consecutive days and upon exercise is at or above the 37p threshold.

[dave4545] 01/11/2017 16:22

Cannot buy online at 10.75p now

No stopping this one now. Any selling is quickly pounced on by fresh buyers.

[microscope] 01/11/2017 16:21

Don't say i've actually timed a buy well for once! Over 1 million shares traded today, doubt that has happened too often for this one. (Third time in 10 years, second in a week!)

Not a trader (unless they go stupid ballistic lol) and very happy with prospects and forecasts here. Time for a proper re-rating, and i love when it's backed by two way volume.

Edit: Volume 1,309,489 Just before close

[paleje] 01/11/2017 16:02

Thanks First_things.

I just found the WHI note, it actually suggests that even at 15p, as it was on 03 Oct without the current news, it would still have been incredibly cheap ~50% less than its peer group. Extract below:-

"..Whilst risks remain, the valuation multiples currently ascribed are significantly undemanding With the shares trading on a FY 2018E PER of just 1.9x and EV/EBITDA of 2.2x, the multiples are highly attractive, should management deliver as planned. We reiterate our 15p share price target and Speculative Buy recommendation, which would still imply a significant 50% discount to the wider peer group..."

One to tuck away. From memory I think management have attractive share option incentives granted some years back which kick in above 30p, which must have looked a bit sick the last couple of years.

[irenekent] 01/11/2017 15:39

I'm hoping for 20p by Christmas.

[first_things] 01/11/2017 15:20

WHIreland has a target price of 15p on their research note on the 3rd October. This was before the "transformation news" this week. "This change should therefore enable the Company to unlock many schemes in its large Housing pipeline, predominantly in extra care." I would therefore expect WHIreland to increase their price target significantly on the news. I personally think we will see 15p+ by the end of the week.