Ashley House Share Discussion Threads

[qs99] 01/11/2017 15:14

Wow that is some move. Any target prices anyone? Gla

[dave4545] 01/11/2017 14:20

Limits were so hot because somebody a hour ago bought 100k and paid 10.25p next to 9.75p offer

[irenekent] 01/11/2017 14:05

Been in this for years and greatly relieved to see the potential turnaround. This company should be a market leader in this sector as directors and associates have huge knowledge and experience to draw on. I will not be selling!

[first_things] 01/11/2017 14:00

dave4545

There are no sellers coming through at this price and I don't see why long term investors would sell if they view the stock as fundamentally undervalued. The market makers tried to "shake the tree" by walking the price down but still no sellers. It's still a very unknown stock that will eventually get picked up by a wider investor base.

[first_things] 01/11/2017 13:41

This could end the week 15p+ in the short term.

WHIreland have forecast 3p EPS for the year ended April 2018 with growth forecast the year after. This was before the "transformation news" which will allow Ashley House to move forward with its large supported housing pipeline which is currently around £200 million. The market has not yet caught up with the news and any positive statements from the company will mean a significant re-rating. It will be interesting to see if there is any institutional buying over the coming months.

[dave4545] 01/11/2017 13:37

yump

You cannot even buy 5000 shares online. The mm's are desperate for sellers only.

Mid price is 9.375p but online it's 9.5p bid not often you see a stock where the mm's are bidding way over mid price to get stock.

Back over 10p soon

[yump] 01/11/2017 12:15

I imagine there'll be a period of traders in and out before the takeover of investors looking at the rating for longer term appear.

[dave4545] 01/11/2017 11:31

Here comes the shake.

Do not get flushed out too low you will regret it.

[knicol46] 01/11/2017 10:56

sp +16%, awaiting update.. hxxps://www.localgov.co.uk/Whitehall-announces-flexible-funding-for-supported-housing--/44118

[dave4545] 01/11/2017 10:46

3 people not watching intraday must have left limit sell orders if the price hit 9p bid because 3 sales went through instantly when the price hit 9p bid just seconds apart.

There is still not online quote to buy now at 9.5p. I think 10k is NMS for fill or kills, just a matter of time before it trades in double figures.

[dave4545] 01/11/2017 10:11

Fill or kill at 9.25p currently

[cockerhoop] 01/11/2017 10:02

I think you have to understand that over the last 7 years ASH has pretty much had constant bad luck in terms of Government Policy. Due to the demise of PCT work caused by NHS restructuring they transitioned themselves into Extra Care only for the LHA benefit cap to be imposed in an ill thought out manner.

Whilst there are still challenges ahead ASH certainly looks in a better place than it has been at pretty much anytime since 2010.

[microscope] 01/11/2017 09:46

Hi FT, agree with your assessment of the announcement. These were trading above 20p in early 2014 before the uncertainty and I could see them return to at least these levels now things have turned in their favour again. Next year could see these old highs taken out. Of course in the 'glory days' they were not far off £2 if memory serves!

Not suggesting anything like that but 20p+ as the news filters through seems perfectly achieveable, and next year should be exciting

[first_things] 01/11/2017 09:04

Hi Microscope, I think your timing looks spot on. The news is transformation and will have an immediate impact as Ashley House will be able to unlock their large pipeline which is mainly in supported housing. The government proposed using Local Housing Allowance rate to cap supported housing two years ago which caused 85% of schemes to be put on hold. The government announcement means that housing associations can start to develop schemes as they have the certainty of funding.

hxxp://www.public-sector.co.uk/news/article-5606

[dave4545] 01/11/2017 08:22

Rapid re-rating on the cards here.

Look at Mrs and Zoo when market gets a whiff of a turnaround.

[microscope] 01/11/2017 08:04

Just joined the party at 8.69p. Been off my radar for years after holding during Ofex days, but clear that yesterday's news from government is potentially transformational. Obviously needs to be enshrined in law i imagine, but investors should see this as a great entry point

[cottoner] 01/11/2017 07:52

Looks like I'm wrong - no RNS! :-(

[cottoner] 31/10/2017 20:49

Expect ASH to issue an RNS tomorrow morning enlarging on their comments from last week.

Those comments included:

'This change should therefore enable the Company to unlock many schemes in its large Housing pipeline, predominantly in extra care.'

From the Preliminary results released earlier this month:

'Our housing (largely extra care) pipeline now stands at £197.9m across 23 schemes'


Note:

ASH MCAP currently stands at a smidgen over £5m. (SP = 8.5p)

Total number of shares in issue = 59,766,196

Director's hold 13,279,121 = 22.25%

Major Shareholders hold 48.72% (inc Directors)

[topvest] 31/10/2017 18:32

Well this is it at long last. No more excuses. Management now need to deliver!

[first_things] 31/10/2017 17:14

David Orr, Chief Executive of the National Housing Federation

"So, after a monumental false start and a two-year hiatus, we are now where we need to be."

"From today, we can begin again to plan the homes and support that so many of us need now or will rely on in the future. Thanks goodness for that."

hxxp://www.housing.org.uk/blog/supported-housing-funding-announcement-what-can-we-achieve-now/

[yump] 31/10/2017 16:55

Stunning really.

[first_things] 31/10/2017 16:53

Forecasts published on the 3rd October by WHIreland (given the news today I am expecting an upgrade soon (The eps figure is 'clean))

2018 (year end April):
Turnover: £31.7 million
EBITDA: £2.6 million
PBT: £1.8 million
EPS: 3p

[yump] 31/10/2017 15:58

On the forecasts that people have seen is the eps 'clean' or adjusted, or isn't it clear ? Only I hadn't seem them until recently and the rating on those forecasts seems daft - keep thinking I've missed something, as even half the forecasts would still leave it below a p/e of 10...

[dave4545] 31/10/2017 15:47

Somebody has went on a buying spree 25k and 50k blocks again and took out all the size.

10k left 8.5p. Going to double figures for certain. Just a case of when