Ashley House Share Discussion Threads

[topvest] 24/10/2019 18:58

The Modular construction business foray is likely to be their undoing in my view. They should buy the modular construction in the market, rather than dabbling at this sort of nonsense. I'd be amazed if it ever makes a profit. The market doesn't think it will!

[microscope] 24/10/2019 18:55

From the interims 'F1M is making good progress and the diversification of the business continues'. The Doncaster project, for example, should add real substance to their numbers going forward imho.

That said, I think we will only have something worthwhile to make a full analysis when the results are published and we can get a clearer picture of what damage the MS situation has inflicted on the overall company - and until then I expect to stay on the sidelines because imho uncertainty is likely to continue.

Thanks Norbert for your analysis, it's good to have someone who understands the sector. Someone else still describing F1M as a start up betrays a lack of understanding of the business imho! ;)

[topvest] 24/10/2019 18:55

I don't need any help with this one. If it looks like a dog, then it probably is. Its just a low margin contractor and I mean very low margin indeed! Its accounts don't even comply with the Companies Act.

[yump] 24/10/2019 18:38

F1 Modular is a startup. Some startups turn out to be dogs, some don't.

Basic Venn diagram might help you.

[topvest] 24/10/2019 18:35

Look at the F1 Modular statutory accounts - lost £1.2m in 2018 and break-even the year before. Not difficult to see that its a dog!

[dave4545] 23/10/2019 15:55

Is that a market maker position via Peel Hunt ?

[norbert colon] 22/10/2019 16:30

My latest thoughts:https://cube.investments/ashley-house-reflection-on-a-painful-lesson-ash/

[scburbs] 22/10/2019 07:43

Presumably the next phoenix is set to be affordable housing using modular construction.

Sounds like a good idea to me and I am convinced they could build an excellent pipeline(!) of new business in this area.

[yump] 21/10/2019 21:47

You could try supporting your statement about modular

[topvest] 21/10/2019 20:19

The end appears to be drawing in here unfortunately. They won't make any money on modular in my view, and they haven't got a partner like the old days on health centres.

[dave4545] 21/10/2019 19:17

Surprised the market makers took on so many lumpy sales today.

Almost every decent trade was a sale, it's done well to close above 4p considering

[yump] 21/10/2019 11:48

Well they're still involved with MS via the health sector, but the comment about that contains no details.

In the end the deal didn't unlock anything at all much and if that bit of the market is still subject to unpredictable funding delays, then ASH were not and are not large enough to cope with it.

The question arises as to whether the JV was actually not an unlocking move, but mainly a rescue move.

ASH generally seem to have been quite honest in what has been a difficult market for some time, but I'm not sure whether to give them the benefit of the doubt when it comes to the positive noises made about the JV. Was entry to the whole extra care sector just a big error in judgement in the first place ?

This is now a bit of a play on the future of modular, plus whatever appears that is not in the extra care sector.

12 employees off the payroll - that's at least £600k ?

[microscope] 21/10/2019 10:46

I'm very disappointed. The Morgan Ashley deal unlocked a 200+ million pipeline. Now that's mostly gon,e together with the expertise and co-operation with an important player in the sector.

And this cash plugs in the company's own words a 'short-term' funding gap. It doesn't do any more. now it's a case of valuing what's left and figuring out a fair market cap for the rump. I haven't got round to trying to do that yet, but the guts have been taken away from the company in my view.

[dibs61] 21/10/2019 09:54

No mention of the net debt in today’s announcement. As of the previous interim report in January net debt ratio was running at just over 50% of the current valuation. Net debt was £1.49m. No mention of whether any of the monies raised will be used to repay some of that debt. How serviceable is it when revenue is so lumpy?

I’m sure the market has held a long term concern about the debt and that is also reflected in the share price

[yump] 21/10/2019 09:12

Think I'll leave my bit in and see what comes out in a few years. Not going to sell at the point of worst news - although of course it might not be the worst.

Wait to see what the stuff about working with MS in the health space actually means, because MS were already working in the health space. Is that a dressing up comment or are MS just being kind ?

Looking back, although being presented as an opportunity (which it would have been if the delays had cleared), the JV may well have been 50% a rescue package.

So its not easy to decide whether ASH dressed it up deliberately to look better than it was, or whether they simply deceived themselves.

One thing is for certain, something needs to change at gov and local gov level. I'm surprised any businesses want to do any work in this space.

[dave4545] 21/10/2019 08:57

Think the mm's did me a favour earlier not letting me buy.

[dibs61] 21/10/2019 08:54

I’m out I’m afraid. No way is this positive news. What have they got left? It will take time to rebuild the business and I can’t see that happening anytime soon. It will keep them afloat sure, but little else imho.

[yump] 21/10/2019 08:01

dave4545

As you implied i think the share price was pricing in something dire as comments about cash problems usually get people thinking about losing their investment or having a drastic dilution. In effect ash have sold a big chunk of a pipeline that was causing them big problems for £6mln. (4mln from jv share). That seems much better than the alternatives, but a big come down from apparent previous prospects. I guess a case of waiting for deatails on cost base and what their pipeline prospects are now

[yump] 21/10/2019 07:52

Its still not clear exactly what the delays are and by the look of it they just cause cash to be used up with no firm end dates in sight. That is only really sustainable for a much bigger business. Looks like they’ve taken a pragmatic decision, although not clear what they have got left to work on, or on what scale. All those employees have gone to ms, so thats a big drop in costs.

Have to wait for some more details i guess.

[dave4545] 21/10/2019 07:44

Not sure, I mean since the deal especially the last 12 months the price has went lower and lower. If all the time there's problems and it affects the share price then maybe for the best if they did break up the partnership.

They get a load of cash so no placing worries now and they can move on and go back to what they were doing before.

The price has been smashed up because of all this so the market sees the news as relief hence the bounce.

I tried to buy for a while but go no quote at 4.8p

[cockerhoop] 21/10/2019 07:32

Dave,

To be honest on initial reading I see it as awful news forced on them by cashflow issues. It was potentially the most profitable part of the business and I think MS have managed to secure a bargain.

I've always been concerned about the long term profitability of F1M and I imagine it will take time for the new Ashley business to pivot into new areas.

Extra Care has sadly stitched by government policy causing project delays. Looks as though MS rather than ASH will eventually benefit.

Market seems to disagree and are seeing the cash as a lifeline.

[dave4545] 21/10/2019 06:48

Any views on today's news ?

[swiss paul] 18/10/2019 15:44

still nothing of any consequence

[yump] 02/9/2019 07:04

Bit of good news Romsey closed. So there are other schemes that they hope to close over coming months as well as the three...

[microscope] 21/8/2019 18:41

Cheers, fair enough, yump, no problem:).

At least it was nice for holders to see some two way trading today. The market makers probably have a surfeit of stock following the Admenta clearout and the recent 100K+ batches sold.

We know someone is selling, but the key I think is we don't know why. Could be the obvious that they're unhappy with the prospects, but I wonder if it's a 'friendly' seller, raising money to loan them the proceeds, as happened when Mrs Moy was selling a while back.

If they sold a million it wouldn't exactly be big money raised at the current price, but might help to fill the funding gap. At least that would be a 'positive' reason for selling.

One other thing, the management here have over twenty years of experience and will have dealt with situations like this before. Hoping that holds them in good stead!