Ashley House Share Discussion Threads

[yump] 01/8/2019 19:36

‘Draining̵7; - that is exactly the word I’d use as well. All the mor frustrating when could have sold for a very nice profit at 12p or close - but when things are looking up I’ve sold out before on shares only to see them get traction. Suppose might as well stick with it but it’s very difficult to know whether it’s going to get any regular profits or whether it’s just going to be good in current year and then have a continual ‘will it won’t it thing going on for ever.

It’s back where it was before all the good vibes when I bought a chunk. In theory it must be in a better position but no evidence of that.

[topvest] 01/8/2019 12:45

Presumably, the delays are due to the fact that third party funding and government subsidy is needed to close every deal. Public sector funding must be mightily frustrating. Looks to me like the 3 schemes won’t get closed until way into the Autumn.

[microscope] 01/8/2019 11:26

I guess re the first contract someone has found something they weren't happy with. Anyone who has ever bought or sold houses will know that signing off can be the worst part. I don't blame management for that. But it is clear they have to find a way to speed things up. Hopefully that's a key in the new guy's remit! Similarly apologies from me if you followed me in. I sincerely believed in the business. I still do and expect to be back. They could easily make a million plus in the year '19-'20.However for now the risk level has unexpectedly, to me anyway, been raised just too high.

[norbert colon] 01/8/2019 11:07

I've sold out during the course of today after 6 years (on and off) - it's just too draining and too much hard work. Hard to admit I'm wrong but there are better places for my money.Apologies to anyone else who has followed me into this.

[jaf111] 01/8/2019 10:13

Fully accept complexity etc makes timing difficult BUT how long does signing take????

5 July update "the first of the three extra care schemes is all agreed, awaiting signature from the parties........"

Need some better explanation.....certainly concerned over management competency here.....

[yump] 01/8/2019 08:49

The idea that MS might do the delaying is bonkers as is the idea that short term funding would suddenly remove profitability.

However i think it’s about time the nature of the delays was described in more detail, given the previous optimistic statements. At the moment you can’t really assess the risks of an investment, because the nature of the delays is not known

[microscope] 01/8/2019 07:56

Unless you are tarring Morgan Sindall with the same brush, then that criticism becomes invalid, though I would agree they needed to be more conservative with their timing estimates. Also the appointment of a new MD indicates a willingness to improve procedures as far as it is in their powers to do so.That said this is a pretty grim announcement. I'm going to sit on the sidelines until the risk element is reduced. Final confirmation of these schemes would certainly be a major step in that direction

[goliard] 01/8/2019 07:06

Always the same story here. For years and years they have been issuing updates saying that schemes have been delayed. It is quite clear that the management team does not have the ability to accurately forecast and they have learnt nothing from years of experience. I have also seen some cosy loan agreements with loans to the company from connected persons secured against specific assets of the Company which the person loaning the money obviously knows the real value of. The only way this company will ever come good is with good luck as the management do not seem to have the ability to deliver.

[verulamium] 01/8/2019 07:01

Of course MS could lend a hand. Equally they could delay schemes as much as possible in the hope of driving ASH under and getting the whole benefit for themselves. I'm sure that thought's never entered their head though...

[topvest] 01/8/2019 06:51

Yes, all very grim. They continue to show an inability to be able to close schemes on a timely basis. It’s who they are working with no doubt and the complex funding model required. I suspect that they will find some funding, but the interest cost will probably obliterate any profitability as it did last time. Still one to avoid unfortunately.

[dibs61] 01/8/2019 06:49

Yes you would’ve thought MS could lend a hand. We’ll see.

[dave4545] 01/8/2019 06:44

Yeah that changes things.

But surely Morgan Sindall could give them a short term loan.

They do not need to go down the discounted dilutive placing route ?

[dibs61] 01/8/2019 06:11

Further trading update - the bad news continues - company now talking of requiring funding - what price today??

[dave4545] 24/7/2019 12:07

Well now would be a good time to get Ash stock, overhang, any sale is dropping it so you can pick up size well below offer quoted which is 8p

[cockerhoop] 24/7/2019 09:28

Potentially ;-)

[norbert colon] 24/7/2019 09:07

Very positive news:https://www.building.co.uk/news/dfe-outlines-offsite-building-boom/5100790.articleDfE plans to double (year-on-year) the number of schools built using offsite / MMC.

[junior21] 23/7/2019 16:13

Thanks Microscope.

Topped up with another 10,000 today. Interestingly I could buy below mid at 7.74p

[microscope] 23/7/2019 15:29

New MD at Morgan Ashley

[corrientes] 17/7/2019 11:57

I can't remember who it was, but a few years ago now,someone said he'd died and someone else confirmed it.

Hector p - has the active gold thread disappeared on purpose, or is it my computer ?

[hector_p] 10/7/2019 12:29

Looks like he did actually pass away.

[someuwin] 10/7/2019 12:18

WHIreland

08 July 2019

"Ashley House (ASH) – Corporate – Trading update Market Cap £4.9m Share Price 8.25p

Ashley House provides property services, including modular construction capabilities, to the health, community care, housing and educational sectors, among these through its JV with Morgan Sindall (Morgan Ashley). This morning’s update from the group highlights that due to delays in the final legal processes the three schemes highlighted in the update last week did not complete and are now expected to reach financial close in FY 2020E.

As a result, Ashely House points to the fact that, whilst it is likely to be profitable in H2 2019E, a loss for the FY 2019E year is expected to be reported, with the profit from the schemes expected to be delivered in FY 2020E.

Following this morning’s update, we lower our FY 2019E PBT estimate by £0.6m to a pre-tax loss of £1.6m, whilst we leave our FY 2020E PBT expectation unchanged at £1.5m (WHI est. FY 2019E PBT -£1.6m/EPS -2.8p, FY 2020E PBT £1.5m/EPS 2.5p). Although there remains clear pent up demand in the market for the types of schemes undertaken by Ashley House, as this morning’s update illustrates, the process of achieving financial close in a timely manner is not without challenge. Based on our FY 2020E expectations, the shares are trading on a PER of just 3.4x, which should have scope to expand in time if forecasts are achieved and clear progress demonstrated."

[dave4545] 05/7/2019 15:31

5% up

Got to be happy with that, glad no pi's fell for the shake at the open

[dave4545] 05/7/2019 14:26

As soon as they printed that 250k sale at 8p they online offer moved up from 8.33p
to 8.42p

8.1-8.42p

100k still available at 8.49p but overhang should clear this month

[yump] 05/7/2019 08:41

Delays don't matter if the value of schemes closed each year has risen compared to the past.

The delays have always been present, so its any changes that matter in terms of the value of the business, not the fact that its a drawn out process. Two obstacles have been removed, so that is better than the past.

What hasn't been present is the current level of schemes in the pipeline.

You can look back over ASH's accounts and see what sort of profits were arising from what value of schemes and then have a jab at what might happen if a consistently higher level of scheme value is closed each year.

The unknown as yet, is how much contribution appears in ASH's accounts from the JV, as we won't see how costs and overheads are attributed to the JV.

o/t
Similar situation with SRT where the number of contracts needs to rise permanently and consistently to give decent annual profitiability.