Ashley House Share Discussion Threads

[dave4545] 31/1/2019 08:51

They'll book a load of projects in and next time round on the interims they will announce a £2 mil profit and the price will go nuts

People have over-reacted indeed.

[dave4545] 31/1/2019 08:48

All that selling, must have been 300-400k+ at 11p or lower levels and all I can get a quote for online to buy is 15,000 at 11.47p

[truffle] 31/1/2019 08:44

I agree with Norbert Colon, its not all bad news.
I was also very encouraged to see debt reduced substantially and still going down during the second half, and there are good projects in the pipeline alongside a very strong partner.
The company will no doubt learn lessons about managing expectations in future.

[yump] 31/1/2019 08:25

Lets hope that the flow of schemes closing becomes a bit more regular over the next year or so. If enough are in motion, then the lumpiness should reduce.

Investors have to manage their own expectations a bit I guess ! There never has been a quick route to any scheme anywhere when it comes to housing. "Not as slow as it has been" is probably the most positive thing that can be said, which is relatively good compared to the doldrums of the last few years.

[norbert colon] 31/1/2019 08:18

Despite the H1 loss personally I am encouraged by progress with debt down considerably, 6 new schemes added to the already chunky pipeline, a new large hotel project for F1 modular pretty much in the bag (which will help raise their profile as well), improved cash flow over H1 last year etc.Getting schemes to financial close is the ongoing challenge for ASH and the narrative implies that MSIL will use their clout to try and improve this protracted process. The forecasts were always a little bit dubious as the business is so project led that any delays blow the forecasts out of the water.We have a superb JV partner in MSIL and I am hopeful F1 can build on their successes with Aderdare and leverage the Schools Framework.Its still disappointing to see a loss in H1 and let's hope Burnholme closes as anticipated with firm news of the modular hotel to follow.Sent from my iPhone

[dave4545] 31/1/2019 08:15

All those trades in the buy column are sales

10.933p

Been no quote to buy for 5 mins. I think people have panicked here but then the update was not brilliant but the mm's are mopping all the stock up at this sub 11p level

[yump] 31/1/2019 08:12

In case anyone doesn't know, last year's results were flattered by the payment from Morgan Sindall for the joint venture share (basically paying for 50% of ASH's pipeline).

The odd thing is that if ASH deliver say 2p of earnings, they're still very cheap and at 1p of earnings, they're now just above a p/e of 10, with a load of pipeline schemes.

Just goes to show how managing expectations is often as important as the actual results, although ASH haven't really promised anything previously and the broker's forecast is likely to have been as much finger in the air as any investors.

So still waiting for an actual speeding up of scheme closures.

[dave4545] 31/1/2019 08:11

Bidding 10.925p on 10.75p mid

mm's naturally want to buy size at some 3p lower than yesterday

[dave4545] 31/1/2019 08:04

mm's cleaning up selling at 14p yesterday buying back at 11.3p now

[dave4545] 31/1/2019 08:02

Cannot buy on the drop, 12.2p is a lot lower than 14p close to mm's looking for panic first thing sellers only

[yump] 31/1/2019 07:34

Looks like the reference to partnership delays by MS also meant or affected the MA joint venture. Mind you if they end up with half the 3p earnings in the forecast that still leaves the rating below 10.

I'm finding it quite difficult to track which schemes are closed or will be closed in which periods from the statement.

I guess its early days for schemes to reach financial close. So Grimsby is the only closure (November), but there's £60mln of contracts waiting to be closed (Hampshire, Yorkshire) - or are they already closed as it mentions they are won contracts ?

Having re-read, it looks like there's £60mln so far which will contribute to the year's results. I guess will have to wait and see what sort of profit drops out of the joint venture from that £60mln. In theory should be able to look back over previous years revenues and see the profit from those. Then apply it to the £60mln and take 50% as that is ASH's share of the joint venture profits.

Obviously nowhere near as simple as that though.

[podgyted] 31/1/2019 06:17

Its either that or suspension.

[dibs61] 30/1/2019 16:06

Tomorrow it is then....

[dave4545] 28/1/2019 11:20

edit 150k rollover

[norbert colon] 25/1/2019 13:40

https://www.irishbuildingmagazine.ie/2019/01/25/bam-acquires-stake-in-irish-modular-homes-specialist-modern-homes-ireland-mhi/

[norbert colon] 25/1/2019 13:38

duplicate post in error

[dave4545] 24/1/2019 15:07

Some online spread now to kill it off

13.13-13.99p

[norbert colon] 24/1/2019 13:46

24th Jan piece on extra care from JV partners MSIL:https://www.msinvestments.co.uk/news/blog-older-people%E2%80%99s-housing-force-good

[yump] 24/1/2019 12:51

Yes 10% profit on a couple of grand would be very exciting ;-)

[dibs61] 24/1/2019 12:39

Looks like one such trader exited early today yump?!

[yump] 23/1/2019 12:55

What, you mean you hope there is insider trading ?

No, it might be a few longer termers in before results, although would have thought they would already have assessed the business and if so, then obviously buying lower would have been the action.

More likely a few minor traders having a punt based on the chart and ready to get out on stop-losses regardless - 16p an easy profit - except for any serious amount of investment, which you wouldn't be able to sell in volume.

[dave4545] 23/1/2019 10:29

Off again.

I hope some people have been given the nod here.

[dave4545] 22/1/2019 21:28

Yeah I saw that news and got some stock I think it was 6.1p, banked the free ride and then sold some more but vowed to always hold a small amount until or unless the company did something wrong. So far they have not done anything wrong. Results hopefully will surprise. Have to in this market. Anything poor or dull seems to get a bad reaction share price wise.

[yump] 22/1/2019 21:17

Well of course you're free to post whatever, including my 'talking down' posts, wherever they are, if they ever existed. Perhaps I changed my mind, which would be a dreadful weakness.

Presumably if you've been following this closely you would have topped up around 6p, when the initial news of the government blockages to progress changed the prospects here ?

I'm afraid there is an up some pence, down some pence poster on the QUIZ thread, so that is a bit of a trigger, as are the accompanying posts of the blindingly obvious.

Anyway, obviously not my problem how people want to appear.

[dave4545] 22/1/2019 09:58

Just for you and my thumbs down stalker who I know :-))

Online is 12.78-13.29p

So almost full offer to buy so they are shaking it down but any buying and it will rally back up fast.

How's that yump