Ashley House Share Discussion Threads

[topvest] 05/7/2019 08:11

Trouble is with Ashley House is that most of their revenue is associated with getting difficult to fund assets to financial close and through the planning system. Never ending delays in prospect unfortunately.

[dave4545] 05/7/2019 07:24

Probably a delayed buy or 2 to show. The market makers did not arf jump back quickly on on trade, they would have least sat there to see if they could flush anybody out.

Not be surprised now if it actually went blue, traders are long gone from the stock.

I'm not the longest term investor but will stubbornly hold a stock if I feel the price is wrong.

[yump] 05/7/2019 07:13

The mm's know that pi's are often like sheep though and might panic. Hoping for a miracle 3 closures before year end, despite being told that its unlikely and that fact that its the total value of closes that matters not whether they fall into last year or this year.

[dave4545] 05/7/2019 07:06

The price is almost back to where it was yesterday and so it should be. I thought the market looked forward not back so a company saying next years results will be excellent should not be marked down 15%

7.71-8.33p currently

[yump] 05/7/2019 06:57

Just a bit of insurance against a sell off even though it’s not new news. They key thing imo is to see what second half looks like when full year results are out - then there might be some clues on this years likely outcome ie they said second half profitable

[dave4545] 05/7/2019 06:51

I think the mark down is a bit extreme on the update?

[microscope] 28/6/2019 14:57

No surprise that it's Admenta, and as they crossed the threshold to 2.34% on Monday, not unreasonable to think they've sold more since (no further RNS would be needed as below 3%).I was suspicious for a while there was an overhang.

Yesterday's 500k looked like one sell, a phone call and a few minutes later a new home for the shares so possibly just one sell? A £1,250 profit for the market maker in under 8 minutes if my maths is right - how do you become a mm again? :)

But agreed, probably they haven't many (or any) left!

[dave4545] 28/6/2019 14:55

Took another 50k

[dave4545] 28/6/2019 14:35

60 mil shares in issue

Seller gone under 3% and under 2.5% on the 24th

3% is 1.8 mil, so lets 2.5% is 1.5 mil approx

3 x 500k blocks have showed since the the 24th. I'd say the seller is out or at worst
has a small block.

[topvest] 26/6/2019 19:42

Same old story here I see. Their pipeline is forever log jammed!

[microscope] 26/6/2019 15:56

I make it from last Wednesday over 6 million shares (10%+) of the company has traded, if my wonky maths is correct. It would be surprising to me if there weren't any holding RNSs fairly imminently.

[microscope] 26/6/2019 08:00

I've checked back. Infact Admenta reduced to just under 5% in February, less than I had recalled. That left them about 3 million shares. If they are the seller then I don't think they can have many left and there should be an RNS soon

[yump] 25/6/2019 12:40

I think there will be some key figures that will give evidence of what to expect in the future, whether there are closures before year end or not. Should be some way of relating the income from the JV to the number of closures within the JV as both the number and value of those is known - although it will take some separating. Be nice if they did that for us in simple terms. eg. "4 closures in Morgan Ashley, value £50mln, income £x mln", rather than the descriptive versions, where I think the information is there, but it takes a bit of effort to dig it out and some assumptions.

[microscope] 25/6/2019 10:56

This is precisely a comment i made some time ago, (will try to dig out if i get time, think it was on here) about the main perceived 'risk' being lumpy profits, because of timing. The results will look bad if no closures this week, but then we might have three next week and as has been said a spectacular start to the next financial year.

The market will always see the bleak side though of course, and when the results eventually appear and are picked apart it will be easy to be negative, but we are possibly taking days. With less than a week to go it seems they are still hopeful that something might close this week, it's that close.

Long term investors should have no problem seeing the wood and the trees imho!

Meantime there clearly has been an overhang, judging by trading data in recent days anyway, which is probably also weighing on the share price. Hopefully yesterday took care of a lot of it and we will get an RNS accordingly. i made it over 3% of the shares traded yesterday.

Here's the post I was thinking of. Looks like the company is almost in that precise situation!

.
'microscope22 Aug '18 - 20:12 - 466 of 655 Edit
0 2 0
The business will always be subject to timing issues re-closure of schemes, on annual numbers. Always has been, always will be.
The numbers are merely a snapshot on a particular date. If a scheme closes the day after year end, in the grand scheme of running the business, it actually matters not a jot. Simply means the following 12 months are off to a flier. All imho'

[cheshire man] 25/6/2019 07:43

Only short term disappointment here IMV

[yump] 25/6/2019 07:39

Actually missed the bit about being profitable in the second half even if the 3 schemes don’t close... that sounds promising

[yump] 25/6/2019 06:57

If schemes close erratically, then its going to be difficult to value the business as profits will be very variable, so I guess regardless of the dreaded year end a reasonable approach would be to average out. Perhaps if/when a more even spread of schemes is in progress, profits will stabilise a bit.

Mind you, if they just reliably make something over 1p in earnings each year, that will make them undervalued regardless of variations.

No surprise that Morgan Ashley is profitable - presumably its not carrying the admin. overheads of the two businesses - unless they've somehow apportioned part.

No point in short term price-watching either - its not that sort of investment.

[rp19] 25/6/2019 06:48

Pretty sure it will be going down today but, as battlebus2 says, they will be recognised next year.

[battlebus2] 25/6/2019 06:43

Yes but either way the profit will still be there so next year will be a better one 🤞

[dave4545] 25/6/2019 06:32

Agree, 50-50 coin flip to what the price does today

[palwing32] 25/6/2019 06:30

Pick the bones out of that RNS, if you will. Today's share price movement might be a clue hopefully.

[dave4545] 24/6/2019 16:32

500K at 9p 500k at 9.15p and 250k at 9.75p

Nice work if your a mm, they sold 200k late on at 10.2p and still dropped the offer afterwards.

Very profitable flipping for them

[dave4545] 24/6/2019 15:24

Looks like the seller has more left.

Least a RNS will show to confirm it soon enough

[yump] 24/6/2019 15:23

There's a fair few shares available - but not in money terms.