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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Stock Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arrow Exploration Corp. | AXL | London | Ordinary Share |
| Price Change | Price Change % | Share Price | Last Trade
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.30 | 1.88% | 16.30 | 16:35:18 |
| Open Price | Low Price | High Price | Close Price | Previous Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15.75 | 15.75 | 16.00 | 16.30 | 16.00 |
| Industry Sector |
|---|
| AEROSPACE & DEFENCE |
| Top Posts |
|---|
Posted at 20/5/2025 23:18 by mount teide D40 - 'optimism on licences adds to the upside' Tapir Block has been operated under this licensing arrangement with Ecopetrol for circa 30 years. Ecopetrol is currently disposing of smaller assets to raise the funds to develop a new offshore gas find - the largest in Colombia's history at 5 trillion cubic feet. And according to industry sources will require taking on at least $2bn of new debt. Opportunity to buy Ecopetrol out of the Tapir Block?Value Investors Look for Bargains in Oil and Gas Sector - ZeroHedge today 'Looking at Berkshire's mindblowing $350 billion cash stash.......one would think that there is nothing in the market that a value investor would find attractive. One would be wrong: almost half of all mid- and small-cap oil and gas stocks in the US are now trading below their book values. That’s the highest level since the pandemic. And according to Bloomberg, it’s a gift for value investors worshiping the gospel of Warren Buffett and his mentor Ben Graham, who referred to these kinds of opportunities as “cigar butts.” “We’re going to take advantage of a lot of suckers,” said Cole Smead, CEO of Smead Capital Management, who has been buying additional oil and gas stocks that are trading well below book. Energy has been the second-worst performing sector in the S&P 500 in Q2, losing roughly 10% since President Donald Trump’s April 2 tariff announcement, as oil prices tumble due to fears of global trade wars sparking economic slowdowns and OPEC member countries boosting production to increase supply. Two weeks ago, West Texas Intermediate crude fell to around $55 a barrel, a level it touched in April and before that February 2021. It has rebounded only modestly since then and remains down about 15% for the year. Today, shares of oil and gas companies such as Murphy Oil, Crescent Energy and Noble Corp., are trading for less than what the assets on their books are worth. That’s the classic definition of value investing, where the stock is priced at less than what the business would be worth if it was stripped and sold for parts. At this point, 33% of Russell 3000 energy stocks are trading below their book values. The figure rose as high as 40% late last week, before the US and China agreed to a 90-day trade truce, which gave a slight boost to oil prices and energy stocks. The last time this happened, it preceded off a two-year run in 2021 and 2022 when energy trounced the market and was the top-performing sector. A similar proportion of large- and small- Canadian oil and gas stocks have also fallen into the same range, Bloomberg calcualtes. Smead, who is invested on both sides of the border, thinks the stocks are undervalued and poised to at least return to book value, and likely more. “I don’t need to have a rosy picture” for the energy outlook to make money trading energy stocks, Smead said. Smead isn’t alone in buying energy names cheap. A handful of cash rich oil and gas companies have indicated they’ll repurchase their stock if it has sold off sharply. Cenovus Energy bought back C$62 million ($44 million) of its own shares in the first quarter and has nearly tripled that to C$178 million in the second quarter so far. “The smartest capital allocation today is to repurchase shares” rather than paying down debt, Diamondback Energy CEO Travis Stice said on a May 6 conference call. “Buybacks are the right thing at these levels” as crude prices have slipped, Stice said, adding that he expects the Texas-based oil producer to increase its stock repurchase program. Not everyone will be able to take advantage of their cheaper stock price as they don’t have the available cash. Chevron , for instance, said it will cut buybacks in the second quarter following the drop in crude. It's bigger, and higher quality peer, Exxon, however, continues to repurchase its stock with clockwork regularity as it print money quarter after quarter. Then there is also a debate about how best to value oil and gas producers. BMO Capital Markets analyst Jeremy McCrea says book value isn’t a useful measurement for the energy sector since it can change quickly and dramatically with commodity prices. He prefers cash flow, Ebitda and reserve values, but says the stocks still are cheap based on those metrics. “Typically, the best times to invest in the energy sector are when it feels the most uncomfortable,” |
Posted at 06/5/2025 15:32 by mount teide AIM O&G Small Cap Valuations - as an observation, valuations have recently followed the oil price down from $75m/bbl, largely IRRESPECTIVE of the netback/BBl each company is achieving.This has created a huge market anomaly offering low risk investment opportunities: * Investors are able to pick up stock in companies like cash rich Arrow Exp which has high netbacks, at a valuation broadly similar to those with netbacks at/close to being underwater at $50 Brent. * Acquisitive companies can buy cash rich O&G small caps with high netbacks at near decade low valuations. AIMHO/DYOR |
Posted at 18/4/2025 19:39 by pastybap No problem Nigel. All I would suggest is have another look at the metrics here, the history of the management and the potential. You'll also see there's some smart money investors on this board too. Uncommon for ADVFN! |
Posted at 10/4/2025 17:58 by bittorrent “Drill, baby, drill.”It was the slogan that powered Donald Trump’s return to the White House and promised the revival of America’s fossil fuel industry. However, that pledge is already at risk of falling apart after the president’s tariff blitz triggered the biggest oil crisis since the pandemic. While Trump has hit pause on higher tariffs on most countries for 90 days – excluding China – escalating fears of a global recession have led to oil prices plunging since the start of the month, as Trump’s “liberation day” announcement stunned investors. The fear is such that some leading oilmen have sounded the alarm, with Formentera Partners managing partner Bryan Sheffield warning of a “bloodbath ... The industry needs to cut immediately and hunker down to let the tariff war play out”. Oil prices, which hovered at about $80 a barrel when Trump took office, fell below the crucial $60 threshold for both West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude yesterday. Despite enjoying a short reprieve last night, with Brent reaching $65 and WTI reaching $61, they could dip again with tariffs on China now 125pc. US oil producers are likely to shut down at least 25 drilling rigs, according to the investment bank Citigroup, which warned that this number will surge if prices fall again. Scott Gruber, a Citi analyst, says: “A drop into the upper $50s likely results in a bigger psychological impact with the rig count potentially falling by about 75 and production down more than 300,000 barrels a day.” No assessment has been made on how Trump’s latest move will play out, but, in the worst-case scenario, Goldman Sachs has predicted that WTI could fall as low as $51 by December next year. Such forecasts have sent shares in the biggest oil producers in America such as BP and Chevron tumbling over the past month. According to Simon Johnson, the former chief economist of the IMF, oil producers “are screaming that the price is too low”. All of which is a far cry from what Trump had promised voters, including those in the oil and gas industry, which donated tens of millions of dollars to his re-election campaign. The consequences of this latest crisis are huge. America is one of the world’s biggest energy exporters, producing 93m tonnes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) each year and an average of 13.2m barrels of oil a day. Following Trump’s election win, oil and gas companies pledged billions of dollars to ramp up production further. However, the oil crisis sparked by the president’s tariffs is now raising questions about whether these investments are still feasible. Before the tariff climbdown on Wednesday, Harold Hamm, an oil magnate and Trump donor, suggested that the numbers no longer add up. “When you get down to that $50 oil that you talked about, then you’re below the point where you’re going to ‘drill, baby, drill’,” the Continental Resources chairman told Bloomberg recently. All of which could help explain one of Trump’s boldest demands to date, as he called for the EU to buy $350bn (£275bn) of American oil and gas to lift tariffs. “We have a deficit with the European Union of $350bn and it’s going to disappear fast,” Trump told a press briefing earlier this week. “One of the ways that that can disappear easily and quickly is they’re going to have to buy our energy from us ... They can buy it, we can knock off $350bn in one week. They have to buy and commit to buy a similar amount of energy.” It was a remark, insiders say, that created both confusion and clarity for the EU’s negotiators. Confusion because Trump’s demands were so irrational that the EU could never agree to them and clarity because it showed how unlikely it was that Brussels would ever win a trade deal. The European Union has already lined up tariffs on €21bn (£18bn) worth of US goods in response to Trump’s metal tariffs announced last month. Current data highlights that the EU exported €532bn of goods to the US in 2024 and imported €333bn, creating a €199bn trade deficit. |
Posted at 10/4/2025 16:20 by mount teide "On April 1, 2025, the Company had a cash balance of US$25.1 million and held no debt. Further, the Company has no long-term rig contracts or obligations to drill wells. Corporate operating netbacks at a US$65/bbl Brent oil price are US$39/bbl."$25.1m net cash - $6m (32%) added to the cash position in Q1/2025, while production remained stable at 4,500 bopd. 5,000 bopd production at a corporate operating netback of $40/bbl has the potential to generate the same return as US Shale Oil production of 20,000 bopd at a corporate operating netback of $10/bbl. This highlights well that oil production globally is not worth the same and can vary enormously in its value to investors - very low Opex costs and a globally competitive fiscal regime is having a hugely positive impact on Arrow's returns at an oil price now close to the US Shale industry's break even point. AIMHO/DYOR |
Posted at 10/4/2025 12:00 by mount teide $25.1m net cash - $6m (32%) added to the cash position in Q1/2025.This morning looks like a story of a seller seemingly determined to raise cash even at a multi year low price - margin call/s to fund? Coupled with modest buying volume from value/growth investors and short term traders. |
Posted at 03/4/2025 14:52 by chessman2 MT, thanks for that reminder!IMO a price under 20p deserves investors to take advantage so I have dipped in again for a 5 figure purchase to increase my SIPP holding. I'm extremely confident that the next RNS will provide both a reassurance and happiness for investors. |
Posted at 13/3/2025 11:10 by the_gold_mine With the reserves report now out is Marshall going to get back on the interview and presentation trail, radio silence isn't a good look for these junior AIM oilers, effort needs to be made to bring in new investors ( or at the very least to stop existing investors from leaving) which needs effort on the part of management |
Posted at 28/2/2025 08:56 by dunns_river_falls che7win - I agree that the market does not yet get it. Maybe the horizontal well results gave some inflated optimism, but any investor taking the time to read the presentation knew the production drop offs were steep.Could the company have been clearer in those RNS's? 'We might expect long term production to stabilise in the x bopd region for this well'. It would have been a bit of an assumption, but I think some investors saw the headline figure and jumped to conclusions. Oil price in the last months hasnt been awful, but closer to $80 is much more supportive. Stock screening tools - it can take a while for good companies to start to show. ie stockopedia currently rate AXL at 56 / 99. It does not have good ratings for quality or momentum. When results are published this year, that will start to change. It is a quality company, but algorithms dont pick up on it yet. Dividends of other oilers - some might think why risk it for 0 dividend. Supply and demand - Investors always want to blame someone else for the poor performance of their shares. Its the MM's etc. Its not. Its supply and demand. If more people sell than buy, the price is going one way. Opposite is true. Momentum - when the ball finally gets rolling and its back above MA's, investors will start to jump back in. In the meantime, we will continue as we are. Any day where there is even a hint of selling and the price will drop, until buyers jump in. If the price is so cheap why dont the directors buy any in the open market and show that they think the market has got it wrong? A fund taking 5% of the issued shares would make the world of difference, if bought in the open market. Free float drops and less reliance on momentum traders. If someone had told me we would be c19p this time last year, I would have thought something had gone wrong. Why would we be on a P/E of <2 with $20m+ in the bank. The market doesnt get it, until one day it does. Hopefully sooner rather than later. Just my candid thoughts. Dont get me wrong, I am in this until the market sees what we see. |
Posted at 20/12/2024 04:52 by oakville BNN Investment TrendsCash-Flowing Colombian Oil Producer has Plans for 2025 Growth By Jason Smith, Market One Media Group December 19, 2024 at 9:43AM EST Arrow Exploration plans to further increase production and cash flow in 2025 through an aggressive CAPEX program. Disseminated on Behalf of: Arrow Exploration Corp. Arrow Exploration has a large acreage position on key onshore basins in Colombia The company has rapidly grown its production profile with a horizontal drilling program on its license in the Llanos Basin Arrow has a US$50 million CAPEX program planned for 2025 to further grow production and cash flow The oil and gas sector plays a significant role in Colombia’s economy, contributing around 10% of GDP and 20% of exports. Colombia produced 777,016 barrels of oil per day and 1,546 million cubic feet of natural gas per day in 2023, according to the International Energy Agency. Oil and gas junior Arrow Exploration Corp. (TSXV: AXL | AIM: AXL) has found the stable government and rule of law in Colombia make it an excellent place to do business, enabling the company to benefit from the many opportunities in-country, with a hydrocarbon industry on the verge of tremendous growth. Indeed, Arrow has successfully grown its production in-country to 5,000 barrels a day net (the company holds a 50% working interest in the Tapir block which is a block in the Llanos basin in Colombia, and holds interests in other blocks in Colombia.) That production has generated significant cash flow and the company is looking forward to a big work program in 2025 that should expand production still further. We have a US$50 million CAPEX program that’s board approved, and we intend to drill 23 wells that occupy the full spectrum of risk. — Marshall Abbott, CEO, Arrow Exploration Arrow Exploration: A Wealth of Technical and Management Experience Investors assessing a publicly traded oil and gas company like Arrow would be well advised to take a close look at management. In Arrow’s case, the company has a team with a wealth of experience both exploring for oil and gas and producing a return for investors. It’s management team has experience turning explorers into producers, including Canadian company Cougar Hydrocarbons, which exited with 3,000 BOE/D, Indonesian company Equatorial Energy, which exited with production of 13,000 BOE/D, and Canadian company Sabretooth Energy, which exited with 1,700 BOE/D in production. The company has an in-country technical team with a firm understanding of the country’s key basins. Arrow CEO Marshall Abbott comments, “We’ve got an excellent technical team in Colombia. We’re proud of those guys, and we pride ourselves on also being likely the lowest cost operator in the Llanos Basin.” The company’s team has over 100 years’ experience operating in the international arena. Growth in 2024 through Horizontal Drilling Arrow Exploration has used horizontal drilling on the company’s Tapir Block licenses in the Llanos Basin to rapidly expand production there in 2024. To date, the company has drilled six horizontal wells into the Ubaque Sandstone on the Carrizales Norte B pad on the Tapir Block. The wells have been coming on at rates between 1,000 and 3,000 BOE/D gross and with the company’s 50% working interest in the concessions, its share of production is half that. According to Abbott, “Those wells have the capacity to pay out in one to four months, so the IRRs are exceeding 500% and we have more to drill.” These horizontal wells are based on an exploitation program that’s based on a discovery made 14 months ago. An Aggressive Exploration Program Planned for 2025 With these newer wells coming online, Arrow is producing 5,000 BOE/D net and is seeing US$4-5 million a month from production. That cash flow has Arrow sitting on a cash position of approximately US$19 million. The company has no debt and an aggressive plan to exploit its Llanos Basin licenses in 2025. Says Abbott, “We have a US$50 million CAPEX program that’s board approved, and we intend to drill 23 wells that occupy the full spectrum of risk. The CAPEX program will be funded by the company’s cash reserves and cash flow from operations.” That includes infill, development, outpost and exploration wells. The goal is to spend around 30% of the 2025 budget to keep production flat and then focus the rest of it on drilling that can grow production and cash flow. Arrow will also shoot a 3D seismic survey on the southern end of its Tapir Block holdings. Abbott notes, “We did the same thing two years ago and that has really been the difference in us getting production from 100–200 barrels a day to 5,000 barrels a day.” Abbott and team are targeting an increase in production to 10,000 barrels a day in the next two or three years. They believe they have that capacity, just with its current asset base. Undervalued…Fo Despite appreciating on the good news from this year’s horizontal drilling at Carrizales Norte B, Arrow Exploration continues to trade at less than three times 2024 estimated cash flow. Abbott says the company, which trades primarily on the London-based AIM exchange, has been impacted by recent capital gains tax changes in the UK. And, in the face of political headwinds in Colombia, he notes, “We were able to get our wells drilled in record time.” The company has been aggressive on the marketing side, travelling consistently to tell its story in the UK, Europe, and Canada. Arrow can self-fund its entire 2025 capital expenditure program, and its production is based on the Brent benchmark for crude, which typically trades at higher prices than West Texas Intermediate. Charlie Sharp, E&P Analyst for UK Research at Canaccord Genuity, comments, “If Arrow can continue to deliver step change cash flow generation next year, we would expect to see that reflected in strong market performance.” In short, Arrow Exploration looks like a junior oil producer with the projects and the plan to deliver results for investors in 2025. |
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