Arria Nlg Ords Share Discussion Threads

[montynz] 11/9/2022 23:53

Several times Arria executive have expressed confidence in meeting / exceeding their revenue targets. These targets are detailed in the convertible growth bond investment overview. The projections were made and all the advisors that are attached to that document must have signed off. I do look forward to updates from Arria on the 2021-22 financials and a general update on the plans that have been announced. But then sadly the communications from Arria are pathetic and they prefer to keep the long suffering shareholders in the dark.

[windhill] 10/9/2022 21:11

Wonder how their Growth Bond raise is going? Those cashflows had c$50M coming in from them in October. Otherwise they are out of cash again...

[windhill] 16/8/2022 21:48

Audited accounts post Sep 21, and a detailed view of forward cash flows one would hope. Not just slide ware and estimates...

[legal alien] 13/8/2022 01:44

What details would be in the prospectus that are not in the convertible bond offering ?

I don’t follow ?

[windhill] 13/8/2022 00:20

Good analysis Monty. Agree with last point made - shareholders should not have to await a prospectus to see the truth beneath the slideshow projections. Arria has a director approved and audited prospectus from March of this year relating to the aborted ASX listing zz they should share it with shareholders. No reason not to. They will need a whole new one for the NYSE if that ever happens. Plenty of long term shareholders would like to sell now via OTC, even part of their holding, but without filed accounts or last prospectus/annual report they cannot price. By not sharing data Arria's board is effectively locking shareholders in. Unfair!

[montynz] 11/8/2022 01:34

Some client information is there if you dig enough (and add together the scant information available) - Dominos for example are in 54% of USA stores and 110 x more added each week. Internationally Arria is in 25% of their stores. We know that each store on average generates $12k to $17k revenue per month (so say $15000 ARR per store) - so that client is maybe worth circa $100m per annum (current based on 54% of USA stores = 3500 stores) and 25% of international stores = 3000 stores). so if arria is in 6500 stores now then the ARR is maybe toward $100m now. Arria advised that the target roll out is 100 stores per week (ARR x $15,000 x 20 weeks left is additional $30m ARR by end of year - ) - I know these figures dont line up with the announcements and information provided recently - but the future is looking especially good. plus all the other revenue from clients - none as big a Dominoes sadly. I have therefore strong confidence in the longer term revenue projected being achieved and even exceeded,

The semi regular client announcements seem to be on major clients only - but I suggest that a lot of minor clients are constantly being added. I have for years kept a schedule of clients - and it numbers about 90 clients (based on announcements over the years). It would be great for Arria to advise us shareholder of how many clients Arria actually has, but the client schedule is spectacular. Then add in the Partner schedule which I have at about 44 partners. So to me, it is no surprise that after years of struggling finally some exponential growth is happening. 142% 2021 to 2022. and projected to continue at high rates for the next couple of years. To do this the Ping product is going to be the driver maybe.

Maybe all will be revealed when Arria finally issue a prospectus for the stock exchange listing.

[windhill] 11/8/2022 00:09

Good question. ARPC critical metrics for a SaaS platform. Sharehders get no insight. No reason they shouldn't. It's a private company.

[montynz] 09/8/2022 23:54

Like many arria clients getting the company on the book is only ever the first step - the land part- more important is the expand and what is the plan to expand Apple as a client - I do take heart that Arria are still giving every indication they will meet revenue targets for the end of the 2022 financial year and beyond - I just hope arria continue to publicise their new clients - but what has happened with the older clients they announced several years back

[windhill] 09/8/2022 22:33

Anyone know how much this Apple 'deal of the de cade' is worth? Any actual useful data points released or is it more jibber. I guess they are in the 'words' business, but numbers can be handy. Anyone?

[montynz] 03/8/2022 01:27

Interesting releases on Both apple and dominos - apple especially - this statement is of particular interest - "Apple as an Arria client is considered the deal of the decade" - of course we are not privy to the details - but most important for me as an investor is the credibility when Apple uses Arria and where this may lead in time - afterall there are 1.8b Apple devices out there - so i hope this will lead to massive opportunity. time will tell.

[sonos69] 02/8/2022 20:23

Apple and a new contract with Domino’s in the same week…………… Happy Days 🤑

[drew lonmenob] 02/8/2022 17:11

Any chance of a set of accounts this decade ?

[kidknocked] 02/8/2022 16:58

Hi Montyz. Suggest you drop an email to [e-mail] and get on the mailing list for any significant updates. Cheers.

[montynz] 02/8/2022 10:51

Is apple actually a client of Arria t, or just speculation? I have not seen any announcement. Any other clients confirmed that were hinted at during the Arria townhall meeting a couple of months back? Hints were given about the big companies with $1t plus under management

[legal alien] 01/8/2022 22:32

Even if it’s small to start its clearly Apple choosing Arria to provide NLG

Anyone would take this as a positive but of course you try and spin the negative as per usual

Windhill you are chronically boring

[windhill] 01/8/2022 21:51

Wonder how much Apple is paying as a customer each year? Wonder if this is meaningful or just another brand using the platform for some of their management reports? Guess it will be in the quarterly management reports Arria sends to shareholders. Oh wait. They don't.

[sonos2] 29/7/2022 22:24

APPLE……😁

[psychochopper] 21/7/2022 16:26

Sorry, been away for a while.

And the ticker for Arria is …?

[windhill] 19/7/2022 23:53

Agree. Current listing plan is bonkers. Arria needs to drive hard to break even. Ditch anyone not directly related to core development or dominoes sales. All the lawyers and consultants, strategy folk and hangers on should go. Halve the salaries of the SLT until 2023. Get to profitability. Weather the storm. Wonder how the growth bond is going? I imagine shareholders will be the last to know.

[aja5] 18/7/2022 17:09

They can’t raise $60 million FFS!!

[aja5] 18/7/2022 07:22

With all these magnificent multiples and valuations it really does make you wonder why this delisted what 4.5 years ago with a market cap of less than £20 million!
And with all this world beating technology you would think the6 could file a simple set of accounts on time too!

§2.5 billion….FFS😂😂8514;😂ԅ14;😂😂;😂

[windhill] 02/7/2022 20:38

Blah blah blah. Smoke and chaff. Do the math Legal. Using your valuation method what are Arria shares worth at 10× revenues today? What are they worth at $75M ARR on 10x? Proves my point doesnt it - good technology stack but a leadership team and bunch of shadow directors who are inept and waste capital. Any investor in Arria across the last ten years would have been markedly better off with their cash in an index fund. Fact. That trend set to continue. They still haven't distributed their ASX prospectus to shareholders. There have not been quarterly management accounts provided to shareholders. Smoke and chaff and tall stories is all that's put out. And comedy. Your posts brighten my day with giggles Legal and I thank you for them.

[luckyjack] 02/7/2022 09:51

Windhill, it appears you are in need of the Arria Investment Analyst product more than anyone. You should look into it more as it offers an unbiased representation of the data on display, rather than one blinkered by bitterness and alleged “short-man syndrome”. If you applied it to the data in the articles you read, perhaps the output would generate too much cognitive dissonance for your wee self to handle.

I enjoyed that article, particularly the chart on ARR vs market cap, with the historical and current ratios we’ve seen. It also displays a clear relationship both historically and now between P/Forward sales revenues and YoY revenue grow. Albeit from a low base the Arria growth we see materialising and which is projected blows every single name on that chart out of the water. It is confirmatory in that we should see a valuation in the region of 20x or higher. The historical comparison is also confirmatory of valuations at $1.25 a year or so back when these companies were valued by the market (rightly or wrongly) at much higher multiples.

You mention that Arria comes from a low base, which simple logic implies has far more room to run before it reaches any kind of saturation in the sectors it operates in, which can be seen already happening in many of the SaaS companies mentioned. It is the market leader (in product) in one of the fastest growing sectors, with virtually limitless applications for its technology, as we see with the broad-base of client onboard with wildly varying use cases.

I hope you enjoy your cuppa. As always, be sure to take pleasure in the little things…