Arria Nlg Ords Share Discussion Threads

[luckyjack] 01/7/2022 16:12

I’m interested to know how you get $0.50 a share from at $30m ARR, please do tell?

If you’re going use ratios for valuations, you should probably look at peers with similar business models and growth rates.

Crowdstrike, ZScaler, Datadog, Snowflake. All with Price/Sales ratios of 20-30 and all with YoY revenue growth 50-80% and slowing.

Arria has YoY growth well in excess of 100%, with projections to remain that way into 2024. These projections were first set out in January and have thus far been validated 6 months in by at the least matching their anticipated growth.

Given that they will list on NYSE you can reasonably expect them to be valued inline with those other names. Being conservative and pencilling in a 20x price/sales valuation would as of now with $30m ARR (as you mention) would value the firm at $600m, essentially bang on $1.25 a share.

By the time Arria intends to list at year end they will have ARR of $75m, which using the same conservative multiple gives us a $1.5bln valuation. Divide that by 550m shares (given the dilution of 80m additional shares from conversion of the bond) and you have a share price of $2.72.

Again, this is all using a low end multiple of 20x sales. Given by year end we should have seen an end to rate hikes with an outlook towards easing measures in 2023, coupled with the breakneck projected sales growth, I wouldn’t be surprised by a valuation closer to 40x sales and $5 a share upon listing.

[windhill] 24/6/2022 22:10

Ha! You are totally correct. I will change my opion: Ponzi is a form of fraud fostered by the payment of quick returns to the first investors from money invested by later investors. Arria hasn't even given returns to the first investors! No one has got cash out - save for friends of the Henry's who pay themselves handsome salaries and consulting fees from shareholder funds. The truth will set you free. Distribute the prospectus! Share the accounts in detail. What are they afraid of? Bring in the silks!

[psychochopper] 24/6/2022 16:38

Dingo, there was someone on the Purplebricks board who would be a fierce challenger. Bullish all the way from 350p to, now, 17p. Simply could not tolerate dissenting opinions.

That was a lookalike ponzi scheme of sorts as well.

It’s funny how whenever some prat on a board starts wailing about lawyers and all that stuff, it doesn’t last long after the alcohol or other substances appears to wear off.

Mind you, we’re already awaiting the two lawsuits from those two people who turned up the other day - after waiting 6 years. Both of them!! Probably no more than a remarkable coincidence, don’t you reckon?

[kidknocked] 24/6/2022 08:39

Windhill - lets start with the following from one of your posts:'and the more I look the more it seems like a ponzi scheme designed to fleece the uninformed.'Sounds defamatory to me. Lets see what the lawyers think.

[drew lonmenob] 24/6/2022 07:24

exactly windhill

its pathetic. much like everything they have said since it delisted

right , still looking for the jam.... anyone ?

[windhill] 24/6/2022 05:39

Sure. Please point out the false assertion I have made. You two with your threats of legal action sound very insecure. Why not write a stern letter of complaint to your MP about the nasty man on the internet saying challenging things about a company we like? Makes as much sense...

[kidknocked] 23/6/2022 12:39

Defamation is a claim available to both individuals and businesses-and just like individuals, businesses have legal claims and remedies available to them. Businesses can claim defamation when they are the target of false assertions of fact about their business.

[legal alien] 23/6/2022 11:12

Make your mind up

Last week when you was called out Arria was a “great company”

Now it’s back to being a Ponzi scheme ?

[windhill] 23/6/2022 01:55

Why do I care? I'm a sucker for the little guy. The Arria shareholders who have contacted me and told stories of hype and projections that were never delivered, and the more I look the more it seems like a ponzi scheme designed to fleece the uninformed. You even sign off your comments here like Trump. Sad.

[legal alien] 22/6/2022 22:26

Windhill why do you care ?

Shareholders are in touch with the board and I don’t see any complaints on this board

You really can’t help yourself. Sad

[windhill] 22/6/2022 22:02

Thanks for the Forrester report. Arria's subscription to that service clearly paying dividends. When are Arrias owners, the shareholders, going to get copies of that prospectus? Has anyone seen it yet? Or is the extent of their management reporting presentation slides and Forrester rhubarb?

[windhill] 21/6/2022 23:43

Legal- that's my point. Shareholders should not have to ask. They should all just get it. What's the issue? Send the prospectus you created to all of them. Be transparent. They own the company. No need to keep anything private from them. As you note you are not a public company any more. Too much disco not enough disclosure with you guys.

[legal alien] 21/6/2022 23:27

Windhill

If any current shareholder of Arria requests it, I’m sure they’ll receive it from Arria.

As I would have thought you’d understand, private placements are not publicly advertised.

[windhill] 21/6/2022 02:51

Why doesn't Arria release to its shareholders the prospectus it prepared for the ASX listing? Those shareholders paid for that work. Why not let them see the plan, finacials and economics in the already board approved glossy? Just asking...

[windhill] 20/6/2022 10:57

Austrader? Jets? Getting more culty every minute...love it.

[aja5] 20/6/2022 08:31

That’s the one 😂😂😂😂

[drew lonmenob] 20/6/2022 08:30

Austrader

how could we ever forget him - and his dodgy wifi on his jet

[psychochopper] 17/6/2022 22:11

He’s good is James Acaster. Hackney Empire is a good venue for comedy …

… as is this thread.

[windhill] 17/6/2022 21:41

Going to see James Acaster at The Hackney tonight and doubt he'll be funnier than Devotee...God I hope I haven't scared him off. So want him to write more...