Ariana Resources Share Discussion Threads

[plasybryn] 24/5/2021 17:58

I will be out of the office from 17th May until 24th May and will have limited access to my emails.I will respond to your emails as soon as possible upon my return.Many thanks,Henry

[konil] 24/5/2021 17:33

linz, 5507, superb post. my poor brain cell is fatigued having spent years running around the imponderable issues you mention to no avail...well, of course, because they are imponderable...d'oh.

from an aau shareholder perspective it could be (and i have to say 'could' rather than 'will' because in a 'great reset' scenario the good could be swept away with the bad) a win-win scenario i.e. with the potential flight to gold as safe haven to an extent we have not seen in our lifetimes, or with the status quo preserved and corporate development apace in near and mid term.

[plasybryn] 24/5/2021 15:59

I think Henry (Yellow Jersey) has been away, so that may explain the lack of response. Let's hope he picks it up on his return.

[xow98] 24/5/2021 14:58

I think the legal US jurisdiction issue highlighted below indicates a need for a non-USD reserve currency.

U.S. Dollar transactions and U.S. financial System links triggers of U.S. Jurisdiction

U.S. dollar and financial system dominance facilitate the extraterritorial reach of U.S. law—the U.S. dollar is the world’s preeminent transactional and reserve currency and the U.S. financial system is predominant.[i] Thus, for example, foreign transactions that are denominated in U.S. dollars and processed through the U.S. financial system (e.g., through U.S. financial institutions, including U.S. branches of foreign banks) “touch” the United States and create a jurisdictional nexus to foreign parties, property, and events associated with those transactions.

U.S. enforcement actions against European banks in recent years illustrate some of the mechanics and consequences of U.S. dollar and financial system-tied jurisdiction.[ii] Many of the transactions that led to U.S. sanctions liability involved U.S. dollar payments on behalf of foreign parties in relation to foreign business.

[renniks2016] 24/5/2021 14:43

Hoping so! ;)

[jaf1948] 24/5/2021 14:43

News would be fitting tomorrow as it will be exactly one and a half years since the dividend announcement.Sad to say, I have heard nothing back from the company. I will therefore add 'poor manners' to my ever-growing list.

[actonovator] 24/5/2021 14:06

Decent bit of blue on next to no volume - surely not news tomorrow?

[linz22] 24/5/2021 11:40

You're answering your own questions, Konil. And you're right, I believe, as previously with the 'SDR' suggestion.

The US dollar is doomed. Not due to a particular time-scale, as per the other, historic, currencies you mention but ever since it was taken off a gold standard, by President Nixon ("temporarilly", I might add) in 1971. Thus, creating a de facto 'Fiat' currency with no inherent value, somehow gleaning its perceived worth from the govt's willingness to accept it as payment for taxation, plus it being the only currency accepted as payment for oil, in those days, hence the concept of so-called 'petro-dollars'.

Removing the US dollar from its intimate association with gold, via what still remained of the post-war 'Bretton-Woods' agreement, has made over the last 50 years, and particularly recently, a lot of particular individuals stupendously wealthy. But, at the same time, it rendered the US dollar irrevocably moribund, as well as ALL other western currencies which merely glean their own worth from their comparison with it, ie. the exchange rate.

So, if the US dollar (and all other currencies) are doomed to imminent collapse, something very significant, and even more urgently, had better be done abut it. Which brings us to the relevance of the fast approaching 'Basel 3', and the temptation to think that what it's believed to be on the cusp of proposing might actually be implimented. And, whilst measures such as ending present skullduggerous banking practices would be welcomed, and would unleash the gold price and that of other PMs and commodities to discover their true value, the result on the whole banking industry would be catastrophic, and self-destructive, which is why it's most unlikely to pan out that way.

However, something needs to be done, and fast, as the sudden death of the US Dollar would undoubtedly prove as calamitous as the demise of the banks that support and pedal it. That's why I believe you're right about the issuing of SDRs, to provide a temporary solution to the predicament, but which by definition would only be a respite from the pending disaster.

Something big will have to be done, so prepare to believe that anything is possible - like looking for first signs of a "Great Reset". But, I don't see such a cataclysmic event happening before using the last available, SDR, option. After all, they're no good on their own, you can't just steal SDRs, like dollars, etc..

By the way, the demise of the other currencies you mentioned, from their de facto status of world 'reserve currency' was simply due to the shift in those nation's status as superpowers, ie. the sea-faring Portuguese, the Dutch, the British Empire and the pound to the USA and the dollar, post WW2. That is to say, whoever had the biggest guns at the time.

But, if the USD is to die anyway, what's next up a Chinese (gold backed digital) Yuan..???
Hopefully, in such an event, the shooting will be kept to a minimum - though that's the REAL reason to the US, and NATO's Obama-esque "pivot" away from the Mid, East to the 'Asia-Pacific' region. Now THAT would effect a 'great reset' in the world.
God help us..!

[konil] 24/5/2021 09:34

linz, i have not looked at basel3 beyond the nsfr potentially causing the market participants to withdraw or severely reduce their hedging/speculating/manipulation activities around gold, so cannot comment on the nuclear fallout on the whole banking sector as you suggest.

however, as regards the usd, and not with regard to basel3 although it might work as a catalyst, do you think usd is approaching the end of its reign as the defacto world currency somewhat expedited by the size of the fiat debt it carries or is it so entrenched that that cannot happen?

commentators have been suggesting its end (in its current form) for some time based on modern historical precedents with guilder/franc/sterling, each having had a lifespan of around a century in the global role but that may or may not apply to the usd in the more interconnected world as it is today. but surely fiat in general must reset at some point?

[linz22] 24/5/2021 07:08

Thing is, should the measures in question actually be endorsed as the outcome of Basel 3, and end up being sanctioned by the BIS, it would be akin, for the whole banking sector, to cutting off your head becaue your nose wont stop running.

And, whilst decapitating oneself would certainly provide a guaranteed solution to ALL one's ailments, the same could well be said of forcing the shut down of the whole banking industry, and particularly putting an end to the so-called 'central banking system', which could very well be said to be the singular cause of the current demise of the moribund global economy, and the western form of 'Keynesian' capitalism the world over. Such a scenario, however, is highly improbable to be implemented as the 'ultimate solution' by the BIS, not least as most of the world's population actually requires a commercial banking sector, and its associated services, such as; financing, mortgages, debt restructuring, and even wealth deposits, etc..

I believe the most likely outcome, as mentioned previously by Konil, to be the issuing of SDRs, or so-called 'Special Drawing Rights' (which serve as the IMF's own form of currency), not least as it's the only tool left in the box if a semblance of the present financial and economic status quo is to be maintained.

But, SDRs offered en masse would only be a temporary solution, by its very nature, but an obvious alternative to the 'nuclear option' currently under discussion re. Basel 3. But when has anyone at the head of global finance seen beyond the next, guaranteed, short-term profit or even bothered at all about the longevity and welfare of the world economy...?

After all, that's why we're all in gold, here, isn't it..?

[plasybryn] 23/5/2021 07:58

Very bullish outlook over next decade for copper. Copper the new oil.Https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/copper-price-outlook-mining-shortage-oil-metals-goldman-sachs-2021-5-1030447607

[konil] 21/5/2021 19:14

plasybryn, the 2 articles by alasdair macleod (i posted links earlier) about the implications of basel3 for pm markets is fairly clear on direction of travel. his caveat is that if the bis waters down the basel3 requirements as a result of pressure from the market participants lbma/wgc/comex then who knows what will happen but if the watering down is just a token then it will not stop the pm price explosion.

i wonder how much central banks/govts will also interfere in this especially from those countries who do not want to see the demise of the usd because a very strong gold price will destabilise usd at a time when the govts have already laid the groundwork for instability with massive qe.

on a slightly different but related topic, it seems there are discussions to increase the allocation of special drawing rights to member countries by sdr650bn. to put that in context, the imf created sdrs in 1969 to protect global economies against a usd collapse. to date about sdr204bn have been allocated to 5 member countries including a huge sdr182bn increase in allocation in 2009 on the then total of sdr22bn.

if the recent sdr discussions are due to perceived usd weakness, one can only imagine what this could mean for pm pricing.

the impact of all this, if it plays out as expected, on aau's share price could easily overshadow the impact of aau's operational performance, as it would for all pm miners.

[plasybryn] 21/5/2021 17:10

Basel 111 implications?? Is this accurate? Of course the EU goes first at the end of June with the UK delayed again till end of January 2022. But this is my understanding.

The Banks will be audited prior to implementation to check what gold they hold so they are also confirmed (verified) as holding 85% of their gold’s value in real assets.
The run up to implementation may be messy as paper shorts will cease? They won’t want to be short in a rising market basically.
If matters were left to market forces the outcome would likely be a strong rise in the gold price. It is suggested that Governments and Central Banks can’t allow any such rapid rise as this could lead to a loss of confidence in FIAT currencies. As we've seen many times before.
It is suggested that Basil 111/CRR11 will slow the gold trade through London’s gold market, raise costs and force some bullion Banks out of the London market. They may shift to other gold markets such as US, South Africa, China and Russia. As a result the West’s gold monopoly may be over. Over exaggerating??
Derivative control over gold prices is expected to break when the derivative market overhang is removed and this should result in higher, “unmanipulated” gold prices over time. Too good to be true!!!?
We shall see, but not long now. Not much informed comment todate on this. Wonder why?

[kirbs4] 21/5/2021 15:11

Linz, don't misinterpret my statement to mean I am anti crypto, I own crypto, it just bewilders me how narrow the minds of so many commentators and analysts are. Discussing possible risks is sacrilege. Anyone who doesn't see the potential in block chain either hasn't looked or doesn't pay attention.Likewise though anyone who can park regulatory or environmental risks in a bucket of "don't care you don't understand it" is no different.Strong positive don't equate to no negatives, whatever the crypto bulls may think. I think some of it is societal though, we are talking largely about a generation who have grown up being able to block anything they didn't want to see or hear.

[linz22] 21/5/2021 14:47

Great piece, Konil, by the ever indomitable Alisdair Macleod of Goldmoney.

But, I think the following snippet from the Kingsworld prelude serves to summarise the chances of what may, or may not, be about to result from the rapidly approaching 'Basel 3'.:

"The conclusion is that unless the Bank of International Settlements has an ulterior motive to trigger a chaotic financial reset of some sort, it is a case of regulators not understanding the market consequences of their actions."

[royalalbert] 21/5/2021 14:07

But we are treading water, so so frustrating.

[shortarm] 21/5/2021 13:53

Gold is heading up again!

[konil] 21/5/2021 11:56

this link, again from chip's gold thread (post 9019), is part 2 from alasdair macleod on the impact of basel3 on gold and pm markets in general.

if even a fraction of it plays out as suggested then aau's operational performance will be irrelevant by comparison to the uplift we see from pm prices.

don't get me wrong, i think aau's strengths as producer, near term and longer term organic growth, blue sky options and cash strength are immensely important and powerful for providing a low risk high reward play but pm price action could overshadow even this by some way.

remains to be seen if macleod's analysis is allowed to be played out or whether the bis will be forced into a fudge under pressure from lma/wgc/comex and possibly central banks. (in extreme it could catalyse the begining of the end for the usd, so i'm expecting a lot of pressure against it.)


as before, well worth a read imo.

[kirbs4] 21/5/2021 10:08

RE: Crypto, for me I think a lot of the analysts/commentators don't help themselves, it's like they are brainwashed. Any semblance of negative perspective is buried with "you don't understand it", or "you really don't know what you are talking about". I guess that fits its position as the investment of choice for the younger generation who know everything, but whatever the case I think they would do well to listen more and be more cautious of external limiting factors.RE: AAU (That's what this thread is after all!), we are surely at the point where all this overdue/impending news either comes or an explanation is required as to why it isn't coming. Good to see JAF has asked for that on the divi front.

[jaf1948] 21/5/2021 08:52

So eventually on wednesday evening I took Biggles's advice and went onto the Ariana website and enter the following into the 'Investor Enquiries' form:

Next tuesday will be exactly one and a half years since the subject of the special dividend was first announced. I accept there are some factors beyond the company's control but is there any reason why we shareholders are not being kept abreast with the situation ?

I received an acknowledgement at 17:21 which said:

Thank you for contacting us. We will get back to you as soon as possible.

I have not heard anything since but I will keep this board informed of any further replies.

[konil] 20/5/2021 19:34

actually bb mine was straight up. ha ha.

[konil] 20/5/2021 18:18

yeah! let's get back to that! when are we going to get divi news!!!

[jaf1948] 20/5/2021 18:07

Didn't this used to be a board for whinging about Ariana ?

[huncher] 20/5/2021 17:29

Currently use crypto to make money (or lose a fortune) then Gold to protect it.