Ariana Resources Share Discussion Threads

[temujiin] 05/5/2020 12:39

Well it seems the herd intelligence of this forum is that my view of wanting and hoping for more than a generic statement of what AAU will do with the money is, and not for the first time, in a significant minority :)

I still think we deserve more than a bland steer but I may be disappointed. Will revisit once the RNS JV, should there be one, is issued. In the meantime AAU is still a cracking well run company so happy to stay invested.

[charles clore] 05/5/2020 11:45

I am very happy to be invested here in this stock which I think is quite undervalued considering its assets, income and future potential.

On a chart perspective: The trend before the covid19 panic was heading on a steep upward trajectory but this was interrupted by a very sharp v-shaped dip from 21st February to recover by 14th April. I expect the price to catch up and continue the previous trend so I am using in my analysis the resulting inverse head and shoulders formation. Based on this my share price target is 5.2p by June and it should start to move much more decisively once it gets past 3.6p imho.

[soulsauce] 05/5/2020 11:35

Looking forward to the Tavsan mine schedule.

[konil] 05/5/2020 11:32

left field event - strong rise in gp due to market mayhem (more to come) and money printing off the charts. no?

[shortarm] 05/5/2020 11:10

Plans, we should be mining diamonds - because this is a gem!Boom boom lol :-)

[plasybryn] 05/5/2020 10:59

With all the excitement around the Memorandum of Understanding, the imminent Tavsan mine schedule and the deep drill programme at Arzu South, it's easy to forget about the elephant in the room - Salinbas in the Hot Gold Corridor.
The last RNS about Salinbas said this: "the Company is committing to the immediate commencement of an environmental baseline study and associated scoping work required in advance of an Environmental Impact Assessment. We are also going to undertake further drill planning so that the Company will be in a position to undertake dedicated resource drilling of this Project from Q2 2020."
Well we are in Q2, - so could we be due an update on Salinbas. Any progress here is going to be, without a doubt imo, impactful on the Deal negotiations. It's probably 6 months since the negotiations started and Ariana has undoubtedly move forward quite a bit since then on a number of fronts. Plus our underlying asset has increased strongly in value.

Oh and in February the RNS said - ""We look forward to working closely with the proposed JV parties in order to conclude the proposed agreement and advancing our project development plans for Salinbas in particular."

Note - "in particular"

[kaos3] 05/5/2020 10:39

I see the recent zig zag as a strong base or better said a strong spring board for THE news. consolidation at this level is excellent imho

[backmarker] 05/5/2020 10:19

haha.

if you are worried about overexcitement I suggest you watch a few recent interviews with Kerim. actually, one will probably suffice.

[thanksamillion] 05/5/2020 10:09

backmarker

I also doodle with the charts a little, my log chart following your first hypothesis indicates 4p end May.

More importantly, there seems to have been a gear change Nov 2018 as you say but I am now wondering if another in Nov 2019 is in place leading to a May high of 4.5p and year end of ----, I best stop at end May or I will get over-excited.

[backmarker] 05/5/2020 09:58

you all know I like charts, and have fun trying to interpret them (a little knowledge being a dangerous thing!)

so, would anyone care to have a shot at the current chart of AAU ?

my own analysis is necessarily simple: the CV impact during march needs to be stripped out as noise, which leaves an upper tramline connecting the peaks stretching from autumn 2018, and a putative lower parallel tramline through the late 2019 lows. that suggests a current upper bound of around 3.75p and a lower one of around 2.6p.

of course we are all hoping for better than 3.75 shortterm, and it may be that if one uses a log-scale for the price axis then one may get a higher projection.

but overall what the chart is telling me is that the current share price is not that far from the top of the channel.

however, I suspect that most of us here are hoping for fireworks rather than a steady and continued climb. and the only way that is likely to happen is if the JV goes through and is considered to be transformative.

if not, then business as usual, and a continued steady climb. that would still imply an share price in the range of 4.5p-5.0p by Xmas. I don't think I would be disappointed with that.

[thanksamillion] 05/5/2020 09:54

Have AAU been tipped?? Lots of trades.

[soulsauce] 05/5/2020 09:49

Frisky this morning ;-)

[shortarm] 05/5/2020 09:47

Hmmmn, 3.4. Bid and 3.4 ask....?

[8rad] 05/5/2020 09:46

Tem..for once I concur with the masses and just repeat 1candc.

[1candc] 05/5/2020 09:38

I trust in Kerim and the team and patiently await the result of their negotiations

[backmarker] 05/5/2020 09:36

Temujiin,

With respect I think you are quite unrealistic in your wishes.

The two extracts you quote seem clear enough in terms of the strategic intent of AAU. It is not reasonable to expect tactical detail until the company has made actual decisions, or has specific proposals for which it needs to obtain shareholder approval. The Cyprus deal is a good example of the latter.

There is little point the company speculating in advance what targets it might have for the $30m, firstly because it may not happen, and even if/when it does, it is generally poor business practice to alert potential targets before one needs to.

I fully agree with the responses already made by biggles and soul.

[temujiin] 05/5/2020 09:26

Its not about specifics as Ive said, but for example they could say we intend to target producing assets, or under valued near term production companies, or we will allocate $5m in Cyprus for an extensive drilling program, or with the money we and our partners expect to accelerate bringing Tasvan into production end of next year. I'm hoping for more than a generic statement and they can give more without specific details imo.

[shortarm] 05/5/2020 09:17

It's nice to be listened to :-)

[thanksamillion] 05/5/2020 09:10

Well done shortarm, that moved it.

[thanksamillion] 05/5/2020 09:08

The gold price going forward is now supported by the fact that the total USA national debt is now $25tn. This means that every American born from today starts off near $80,000 in debt.

Not that new born UK children will be in a much better a position.

[shortarm] 05/5/2020 09:05

MM's seem a bit reluctant to lift the price today.....?

[thanksamillion] 05/5/2020 08:57

Temijiin

I am afraid you will be disappointed. Sensitive negotiations are probably going on right now, and for the company to reveal details of any of its war chest or strategy now would be very bad business practice.

[kaos3] 05/5/2020 08:56

reading BB I would get the feeling that there is no difference between specific trade secrets vs specific operational plan vs general plan vs strategy vs outlook vs ...