Argo Blockchain Share Discussion Threads

[sideshowbull] 09/1/2021 17:47

My new T1 target BTC is 56657.

Just BTC prediction so don't look into it ,

I do not hold any ARB.


BWTFDIK

[suffersnofools] 09/1/2021 17:42

Mnomis - exactly BTC winding up for a big move in the next 8rs looking at the 1hr chart. Close above 41300 or below 39800 .......

[mnomis] 09/1/2021 17:19

Nico - I have also been here a while (and full disclosure, have already realised some decent profits and playing for free, but with a sizable £ position still) - I just struggle to comprehend how $288k and the resultant speculative mania does not take us past £10/sh. It would be much easier to argue that $288k won't happen, hence £10 won't happen. A simple calculation says $288k is 7.2x on current BTC. ARB is more leveraged to BTC price - 7.2x on ARB share price is ~£8.50. Hence why I struggle to understand your conviction that £10 is pie in the sky.

FWIW - I could see us going way past £10 at the top of the cycle that prints $288k on BTC, but I am being conservative and using a maximum of $100k for BTC in my calculations at the moment (S2F vs S2FX model and all). Either way, if $100k BTC is coming, hold onto some ARB shares.

[sif12] 09/1/2021 16:45

Yep .. but that calc is based on fixing the two big variables... btc price and share of hash.. its a constant f8ght to maintain share of hash.. not saying they cant. Or even increase their share

[king suarez] 09/1/2021 16:31

"Next 10 years about 1.8-1.9 btc very rough...I dont think you accounted for havling block reward. So will get to 120 years."

Suggests ARB would have about 13.5k bitcoins then if they are at 1/150th network hash rate - assuming a $100k price (way conservative?) would have them at $1.35bn in Treasury?

[crypto nugget] 09/1/2021 16:30

I may be way out here, but anyone agree that as the difficulty increases, along with the BTC price, then companies like ARB become sitting ducks for a takeover?

[aidenabettin] 09/1/2021 16:29

Worth a bit more now.[A]s of December 21, 2020, the Company holds an aggregate of approximately 70,470 bitcoins, which were acquired at an aggregate purchase price of approximately $1.125 billion and an average purchase price of approximately $15,964 per bitcoin, inclusive of fees and expenses..That's some investment return in a very short time

[mattybuoy] 09/1/2021 16:24

King Suarez,

"2.4m coins at 900 per day is 7.3 years"

Don't forget that the block reward halves approximately every 4 years, the last instance being on May 11 2020.

The difficulty is set solely by the average block time over the preceding 2,016 blocks, nothing else.

[sif12] 09/1/2021 16:24

Ks i think there are too many variable to really model this out more than 12 months forward

Next 10 years about 1.8-1.9 btc very rough...I dont think you accounted for havling block reward. So will get to 120 years.

[qs99] 09/1/2021 16:15

And thanks for link re morgan Stanley, again just more and more instis coming into the market, IMO that wall of money differentiates this BTC rise to previous one which was probs mainly PI punters....

with any drops in BTC, with this demand, the dips should therefore be well bought and short-lived

[qs99] 09/1/2021 16:13

When Bitmain does go public, it will give another value point for others

[aidenabettin] 09/1/2021 16:12

hTTps://www.microstrategy.com/en/company/company-videos/microstrategy-announces-over-1b-in-total-bitcoin-purchases-in-2020

[yump] 09/1/2021 16:11

Am I right in thinking that if mining capacity doesn't increase much because of mining hardware scarcity, then a rising BTC price will have no effect on difficulty, because mining power will stay the same ?

So perhaps difficulty will not keep rising, until later in the year.

[king suarez] 09/1/2021 16:07

Given the scramble for mining hardware it will be interesting to see what share price Bitmain IPO at:



Could be a good investment potentially?

[aidenabettin] 09/1/2021 16:07

hTTps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-09/morgan-stanley-unit-boosts-stake-in-bitcoin-loving-microstrategy.Money is moving to crypto

[yump] 09/1/2021 15:57

This is probably a bit primitive, but it looks to me as if the average difficulty rate has risen about 25% from the period before BTC's recent rise to now.

BTC has roughly doubled.

ARB coins mined has dropped by 25%.

All ball park figures, but gives an idea ?

[king suarez] 09/1/2021 15:33

Some numbers..

If the 'plan' is for the last bitcoin to be mined in 2140, then that is 120 years away, approximately 63m minutes away. An average of 20k bitcoins mined per year.

The current bitcoin mining rate is supposed to be around 10 minutes per coin.

There are purportedly 2.4m coins left to be mined.

According to this site there are currently 900 coins being mined daily:



2.4m coins at 900 per day is 7.3 years, so the difficulty rate is going to (have to) skyrocket soon?!

Current network hash rate is around 150 EH/s and ARB will be at 1.1 EH/s soon. That is 0.7% of the overall hash rate.

ARB mined a little over 3 bitcoin per day in December, which is about 3% of the current 900 per day rate, so they must presumably be mining a lot less in January?

Does anyone have an accurate model of how many coins worldwide are expected to be mined, say over the next 10 years? Then you can maybe apply ARB's market share of the network hash rate and work out how many ARB may have in Treasury - then multiply by your assumed bitcoin price and that gives you balance sheet value of the business?

[nico115] 09/1/2021 14:25

NoI haven't Sorry mate

[gspanner] 09/1/2021 14:23

bout flipping time too

[crypto nugget] 09/1/2021 14:14

ZCash looking healthy too.

More cash in ARB's coffers.

[mattybuoy] 09/1/2021 13:45

Live (daily) graph of BTC mining revenue per Terahash:



Might help with profit estimation.

Note: Argo partially owns this website, it's part of Luxor Technologies.

[zenja58] 09/1/2021 13:40

3,000 MEMBERS
-

[aidenabettin] 09/1/2021 13:34

Ok we will leave it at that. I will stick to my theory though. More than enough money been made here already. Anything from here is a bonus for me

[suffersnofools] 09/1/2021 13:29

What argument?