Anpario Share Discussion Threads

[battlebus2] 31/3/2016 16:08

Mm's happy to mark the bid up to 250 but technically you could have sold all day for that.

[battlebus2] 31/3/2016 11:32

I think the key to their future growth plans is the recruitment plans for Asia and the Americas like the recent appointment of Richard Chong..


Anpario plc are pleased to announce the appointment of a Regional Commercial Director for Asia Pacific Region (excluding China).

Richard Chong will be joining the company on 16th March and will be based in the Kuala Lumpur office where he will lead the Asian Pacific team.

Richard has significant sales, technical and commercial experience having previously worked for Alltech, Gold Coin and more recently Anitox, where he was Commercial Director for Asia. He has a successful track record in developing geographic markets and also growing the sales of new products.

Richard will bring invaluable leadership and vision in implementing our ambitions to significantly grow our sales in Asia.

[battlebus2] 31/3/2016 10:27

I wasn't concerned as he's been within the co for a while and has overseen significant developments already so up to the task imv.

[truffle] 31/3/2016 10:21

What neither of you has mentioned is the recent change in the company's CEO/leadership. I see this as significant, both negative and positive. Negative in the sense that the change no doubt reflects the fact that the company's progress did slow in the last year or two under Bullen, as reflected by the figures, but positive in that the company has taken action to get the momentum going again under Edwards.
We shall see.

[battlebus2] 30/3/2016 19:38

Yes lol, we don't differ on much but I do find I'm into a share a little earlier than most which doesn't always pay but given I know the track record here I'm at ease with my investment. I do hope you'll not be joining me as today's price is as low as it's going. ;)

[glasshalfull] 30/3/2016 19:25

Thanks Battlebus.

See Note 8 to the accounts ... There are 4 different measures of EPS and I always use,

Diluted earnings per share from continuing operations = 15.97p

This is consistent with Stock - o pedia's normalised earnings and also the 16.2p estimates for the current year both on Stock - o and also quoted by PH.

Irrespective, we're splitting hairs. 1% or 3% growth for the current year isn't enough for me at the current price.

Regards,
GHF

[battlebus2] 30/3/2016 19:14

Hi GHF eps for 2015 are 15.7 verses 16.2 for 2016 which is 3%..

[glasshalfull] 30/3/2016 18:59

Thanks for commenting Battlebus.

We'll agree to disagree on the current valuation of ANP ;-)
Although, think we're on similar page on the quality of the company but I happen to perceive that it's still rated as a growth stock which I fail to currently observe, even after the fall in share price.

I happen to believe that the valuation has fallen in line with lukewarm earnings last year and forecasts for the coming year & while 250p is more realistic valuation IMHO I fail to see any significant upside in the next 12 months irrespective of their cash generation, as only 1% earnings growth is forecast. That of course excludes a bid or use of the cash for an earnings enhancing acquisition.

Note you mention 3% EPS growth in 2016. I only see Peel Hunt covering and indicating 16.0p EPS in FY 2015 increasing to 16.2p EPS in FY 2016 which I make 1% growth. Are there other figures out there?

Also think 1.9% is a low dividend yield for a company exhibiting strong cash generation with only a 2% yield forecast this year. If they were offering c. 5% yield at the current share price of 252.5p , until growth accelerates in 2017 or 2018, then that would have certainly better justified an investment case where one received a decent yield while waiting on the return of growth.

Wish you well with ANP and hope to join you at some point ... if the price is right!

Kind regards,
GHF

[battlebus2] 30/3/2016 18:32

Hi GHF, good to hear your view which i'm going to differ on.

I too held Anpario a few years back and can only say how I admire Richard Rose and what he has done here and at CRAW.

Yes I did see the Peel Hunt downgrade BUT feel the current 250 share price is too cheap. EPS growth of 8% is not pedestrian for this company with a track record of steady increases in Revenue pre tax profits and EPS. Brokers forecasts put the co on a p/e of 15.4 falling to 14 in 2017 with expected eps growth of 3% in 2016 and 12% in the year ending 31st December 17. Consistently increasing the cash pile to nearer 10 million though they do speak of investment in recruitment but surely if your forward thinking this can only be good news for future revenue and profits. Taking the cash pile into the equation the p/e is in single figures and pays a 2% dividend.

We may see this cash put to use with another acquisition to further bolster growth imv

This is a very well run outfit with no chances taken which to me makes 2.50 too cheap and £3 plus is a very realistic target over time. Dyor etc as ever applies.

[glasshalfull] 30/3/2016 17:08

I've been watching ANP for a while now. Especially as the shares have fallen back 30% since the beginning of December 2015.

I originally bought in during 2009 c. 60-70p (I think) & only left when I felt valuation had got too rich. I sold out c. 250 - 270p in 2014 so have very fond memories of the company. Been watching ever since for an opportunity to reinvest, either on share price weakness or earnings accelerating & where I could then feel comfortable with the valuation.

Unfortunately having given these a good look I have decided against investing at the present time.

Reading back through recent commentary on this thread I've failed to note any comments recently concerning the reduction in PBT & EPS forecasts following FY 2015 results (Peel Hunt). They also reduced their price target to 330p from 370p. Perhaps that's having a bearing on the weak share price???

Diluted EPS came in at 15.97p last year (FY 2014 14.76p) for 8.1% earnings growth. Irrespective of the fantastic cash generation & net cash position, that is fairly pedestrian growth IMHO and may partially explain why the shares have fallen back from a fairly steep PER of 23 around Dec 2015.

ANP are investing in the recruitment of key sales appointments as acknowledged in the recent results outlook,

"...The investment in senior commercial staff in our regions will increase overhead costs in the short term in order to support stronger long term performance."

This would appear to have resulted in the brokers forecasts being reduced by c. 10% with PBT reducing from £4.6m to £4.1m in the current year which translates in a reduction in EPS forecasts from 18.3p to 16.2p.

Therefore just 1% earnings growth in 2016 and only 8% growth in 2015.

That would be okay if the business was valued on a PER 12-15 & growth perhaps stalling for 12/24 months as they invest in sales/markets/products , etc. Especially when they are exhibiting strong cash generation. But for a small cap with PER > 20 , it is bound to fall back to a more realistic rating while awaiting indication that earnings are once again accelerating.

Forecasts for 2017 have also been lowered from £5.3m PBT to £4.6m. Again knocking EPS forecasts from 20.7p to 18.1p. That equates to12% earnings growth in 2017.

So I don't think it unrealistic to see the shares fall back to c. 250p. ANP is a quality business & has delivered excellent growth since 2010, but I will sit on the sidelines until either the share price comes back further offering a better risk/reward opportunity to invest IMHO or I see evidence that earnings (growth) supports the valuation of the company.

My tuppenceworth FWIW. Delighted to hear any opposing views.

Kind regards,
GHF

[battlebus2] 30/3/2016 16:10

Yes a bit of PR could work wonders here. Can't buy 1000 shares for under 259.99 now so any buying should move us up if the selling has stopped. I see a delayed sell at 246 for 14k which is a sizeable sale.

[spekky] 30/3/2016 16:06

They are "tight" with absolutely everything.One of my gripes is the PR.......I'm pretty sure they have a significant partner in the USA (Tyson possibly) and they won't say,even if there is no NDA to respect.Anpario never blow the trumpet.

[shauney2] 30/3/2016 15:31

It does look good value now.

17-18% of the market cap in cash.Why are they so tight with their dividend payments?

[battlebus2] 30/3/2016 14:57

In for a few, risk reward looks excellent at 250 imv....dyor etc

[tailgunner2] 30/3/2016 13:09

I'm not selling...... These were meant to be my long term buy an keep for my retiral in 4 years time...... But it's going down a lot quicker than it ever went up...... Gobsmacked ?

[hiddendepths] 30/3/2016 09:55

laserdisc - interesting. Hadn't heard that.

tailgunner - it's just lack of interest and a disenchanted seller or two. There are plenty of investors who get nervy as share prices fall and they sell to add to the downward drift. And buyers avoid the "falling knife."

One of the joys of dealing in relatively illiquid stocks! Still, as long as they don't need to raise equity finance (and they don't) it doesn't really matter.

Two positives - firstly, such mini-collapses provide excellent top-up opportunities. Secondly, a stock like this now has a good yield in real terms and is far lower risk than Treasuries. In other words it is a low risk yield investment. How weird is that?

I'll add more soon. I trust my own analysis rather than others' insubstantial fears of something going wrong beneath the surface. As the French say, earnings have good "visibility."

[nivison] 30/3/2016 09:52

Only thing I can think of is that there is a large and determined seller. Maybe David Bullen is offloading his remaining 160,000 or so in dribs and drabs. Assuming there is about £10 million in the bank we are now valuing the business at about £50 million, p/e less than 7 using the eps from the last report. Scratching my head a bit here. Would have thought there would be a queue of buyers at this price.

[laserdisc] 24/3/2016 21:02

hi hiddendepths on an off topic item mm Macquarie always seem to be making moves on the l2 over on Hur I reckon they may be involved in some sort of finance deal , have a good easter

[hiddendepths] 23/3/2016 10:19

I suspect there's been an institutional seller.

Topped up today - I still believe the story and the shares are substantially undervalued on my criteria.

The US growth potential is enormous - and it's started.

I like the consistent growth, the gently expanding net cash position (unusual for a growth company) and the sensible dividend policy. Yes, it's been a frustrating ride but it was never a stock for the short term. Very well run IMO.

[tailgunner2] 14/3/2016 23:23

Thanks for that Spekky...... Yep, I've been here a good number of years now, that's for sure.... It is frustrating .... Very much so......

[spekky] 14/3/2016 19:23

tg2

Yes it's a bit frustrating at times,I've looked at forecasts (dig look) and will be more than happy if they are achieved.Don't know where Dig Look get their info from though.
In any case,it's important to re-emphasize that Anpario are only at the starting blocks even if you and me seem to have been here for donkeys ages.
Very encouraged that they are operating in USA dairy herds from an original target of just poultry.Long way to go yet....imho.

[rcturner2] 14/3/2016 09:18

See post 877 onwards.

[tailgunner2] 11/3/2016 15:08

Spekky...... What's your take on this over cooked nonsense ???

[tailgunner2] 11/3/2016 15:04

Nivision...... It is demoralizing ..... I thought results were good..... But someone sitting at a wee desk somewhere is sticking it to us big time