Angus Energy Share Discussion Threads

[headinthesand] 09/6/2022 07:59

3Put, I don't claim to be an expert in anything. However, I can understand/run a P&L, put together a "what if?" revenue projection, fisk (look it up) the core meaning out of a carefully worded RNS and grasp/negotiate a contract. I consider that all to be fairly basic stuff.

[jtidsbadly] 09/6/2022 07:55

Liable, Jonny? In what way will they be liable?

[jtidsbadly] 09/6/2022 07:53

Yes, Jonny, but, as we agreed yesterday, the “negative supposition” of today becomes the text of the RNS tomorrow. Strange, but true.

[sincero1] 09/6/2022 07:53

mercuria stated they were looking forward to working with angs on future projects, so all this negative supposition posted regarding mercuria intentions are nonsense .... and remember mercuria have a very large and aggressive legal dept....and we know that they monitor boards for libel.... just saying ......

[3put] 09/6/2022 07:49

It would be very surprising if Mercuria take such an attitude. They’ll either want their Charge enforced, or they’ll require a further adjustment of the loan terms in their favour

Indeed.

[jtidsbadly] 09/6/2022 07:41

HITS: if memory serves, at least the last three months’ delay in getting the £12mm. loan signed in the first place was caused by the requirements of the respective lenders for their own legal representation in wording the loan documents. Why go to all this expense of time and money if a year later, when the terms begin to apply, you’re just going to say “carry on as you were, boys - don’t worry, it’s only money, what?”.

It would be very surprising if Mercuria take such an attitude. They’ll either want their Charge enforced, or they’ll require a further adjustment of the loan terms in their favour. Either way, Anguish shareholders would be unlikely to see a return of more than the £1 that their noble heroes originally invested on their behalf in Poundland. Anguish will be an ex-parrot, 3Put. Bereft of life, it will rest in peace. It will have ceased to be. “Wake up, Anguish. Wake up Anguish Lethargy!” In any case, if the Interim MD had not nailed it to its perch, Anguish would have been pushing up the daisies a year or two ago. Shareholders may wish to register a complaint.

[3put] 09/6/2022 07:32

I'm Mercuria and Aleph and I've lent a business £12 million and invested a further £6 million, I'm going to want to maximise my returns on those outlays.

- If Angs faces more delays, the lender is not going to disrupt to the level you suggest. Nobody here believes that either, not even JT. However you are entitled to your view, if Angs hit its 100 million over 3 year and in your words 'a game changer'.

[1347] 09/6/2022 07:31

JT/HITS I'd expect Mercuria will be content to make a small fortune with little risk on those cashflow swaps. Aleph and their various pop-ups, well I'm not so sure about them. Lucan seems awfully keen on them, even paying their fees to set up that very attractive loan (to Aleph).

"Aleph has been granted a 90 day exclusivity period (extendable if agreed between the parties) beginning on the date of the MOU in which to undertake customary legal and financial due diligence investigation in relation to Saltfleetby, the reasonable costs of which will be met by Angus. Aleph will also need to agree the funding of the Saltfleetby Finance Facility with its funding partners".

Now we still don't know who those funding partners are do we, or who owns Aleph International Holdings Inc. (not the recently popped up UK one - the one in Delaware who seem to be the ultimate PSC). If the UK Gov weren't so completeley clueless under the oaf Johnson you'd think they'd want to know who was the ultimate owner of a signficant UK energy asset, especially at a time like this, wouldn't you?

[3put] 09/6/2022 07:27

HITS

11) Expert in Business relationship management

Excluding trading, is there anything else you are an expert in?

[headinthesand] 09/6/2022 07:01

3Put, you stated earlier "that's not how businesses work." I disagree.

My own not insignificant experience of "business" is that it's quite genuinely red in tooth and claw. So if I'm Mercuria and Aleph and I've lent a business £12 million and invested a further £6 million, I'm going to want to maximise my returns on those outlays. The lenders are due to make c. £2.5 million of interest on their loan, plus the 8% revenue override. And Mercuria is contractually guaranteed c. £70 million on the hedge over the next three years at current future gas pricing - so they're going to want that too.

100% of the field has been put up as surety (initially by ANGS and SEL, but now solely by ANGS). Ti's was totally necessary, because neither company had a pot to pee in when it came to being able to secure a loan of the size needed.

Now, if ANGS fails to meet its loan repayment or hedge obligations because the field is late producing or doesn't produce enough, then that's a clear default, presumably then resulting in Mercuria and Aleph getting the field. Which they could presumably then sell to some more competent party and make considerably more than they were due to get from ANGS. I mean, how much is a nearly ready gas field worth - and one that on a low-ball estimate is set to deliver c. £93 million of revenue just over the next three years?

Why wouldn't they do exactly that? They'd be completely entitled to. And business isn't about being "nice"... it's literally solely about maximising returns within the constraints of what's legally permissible... and it's exactly what I'd do in their shoes.

[jtidsbadly] 08/6/2022 23:00

1347: Anguish need to be able to offer some piece of undeniably good news between now and Monday, in my view, to get the price up. Would you want to take up another £3mm of shares in this if the share price were below or even close to the price at which you’d contracted to buy them? I wouldn’t. It looks as if it’s pretty easy to put one over on these bozos when “negotiating” terms, so surely even the new boys will have protected themselves from the risk of a big loss? Particularly with the chance that Knowe may convert their loan and want to sell their new shares at the same time?

[jtidsbadly] 08/6/2022 22:41

Well yes, possibly!

[1347] 08/6/2022 22:22

"shareholders will get strong returns in their shares"

Nope, the returns have been, and still are being, salami sliced and diluted away, seems you're still on the learning curve JT?

[jtidsbadly] 08/6/2022 18:57

3Put: I’ve said time after time that if Anguish manage to produce gas at their predicted rates and by the hedge contract deadlines, they will do very nicely and shareholders will get strong returns in their shares. I believe the chance that this will happen is much lower than the chance it won't. I shan’t comment on this again - it all seems pretty clear to me.

[3put] 08/6/2022 18:50

If they hit its 100 million over 3 years 'Hits words'. Do you agree JT. Let's at least consider a positive for a change.

[3put] 08/6/2022 18:49

No chance, they will renegotiate terms. You don't jump in bed with a company and then try and bankrupt them at the first chance. That's not how businesses works and you know it.

[jtidsbadly] 08/6/2022 18:35

3Put: insolvency=bust. Not dilution. Finished. Assets, including Poundland, taken over by the Lenders. Nothing left for shareholders. No second chance. Kaput. A dead parrot.

[3put] 08/6/2022 18:27

3Put you think it might just be only and all about...How much gas and by when?

HITS: I think you will find it was you that has said how much gas and by when!

[3put] 08/6/2022 18:26

JT: Disagree, insolvency would not suit the hedge. They would make the terms worse and George would dilute imo. Anyway I'm thinking positive, get the gas going, get a sidetrack done next month and deliver a dividend.

[headinthesand] 08/6/2022 18:24

3Put you think it might just be only and all about...


How much gas and by when?

JTids is right to bring up concerns about ANGS's ongoing solvency and/or continuing rights to the field in the event that it doesn't produce enough gas to cover its substantial and various liabilities directly related to Saltfleetby.

[jtidsbadly] 08/6/2022 18:13

3Put: the risk is not a question of dilution over the next few months. It’s a question of Anguish's continued solvency. Or possibly a change in the loan terms that would leave zero earnings for shareholders.

[3put] 08/6/2022 18:06

HITS: keep it nice. We both agree that Angs need to deliver & if they do in your words , they stand to make a 'game changing amount'. 100 million over 3 years. If they don't it's more dilution and we know George is good at that!