Angus Energy Share Discussion Threads

[headinthesand] 08/6/2022 12:20

They'd better get to full production by July 1st then... and also drill a successful production-doubling sidetrack by Oct 1st, then.

It strangely seems to be literally all about how much gas and by when, eh?

[3put] 08/6/2022 10:45

Hits: that point was not disputed. I was keen to find out if you used the correct values. I do agree that 100m to angs over 3 years is a game changer

[headinthesand] 08/6/2022 10:21

3Put, just view the web page I posted. My calcs are worked out by month, then aggregated.

On that webpage you'll find the official and live gas futures prices, by month, for the next seven years - and ANGS has said they're the figures it uses for its own calcs.

I'll pick a few numbers out for you. As of right now...

Jul 22 is currently £1.30p per therm.
Jan 23 is currently £2.48 per therm.
Jun 23 is currently £1.76 per therm.
Dec 23 is currently £1.97 per therm.
Aug 24 is currently £1.37 per therm.

FFS take a look for yourself - how difficult can that be???

[3put] 08/6/2022 10:05

HITS: 3Put, I've told you. I didn't guess or make up figures - I invariably use real and latest live monthly futures pricing data.

- including the increase in differential for winter or today's price? Thanks

[headinthesand] 08/6/2022 09:42

3Put, I've told you. I didn't guess or make up figures - I invariably use real and latest live monthly futures pricing data.

www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/NF*0/futures-prices

As you may remember, I was inspired by one of His Pinocchio-ship's wilder exaggerations a couple of months back to knock up a spreadsheet including the monthly hedged quantities and the fixed prices thereof.

Having done that, pasting in latest live monthly gas pricing (and if I want, varying monthly production volumes) is now 10 seconds' work - and that then automatically gives me the total gross revenue over the three years, split down by month between Mercuria and ANGS.

[3put] 08/6/2022 09:30

What gas price did you use to work out this ?

[3put] 08/6/2022 09:30

HITS: 'Add a production-doubling sidetrack kicking in from say Oct 1st and the gross revenue generated climbs to around £177 million. Mercuria still gets its £71 million, but this time ANGS is left with c. £106 million of gross revenue over that three year period. That of course would be a total game changer'

[headinthesand] 08/6/2022 09:21

3Put, no, my calcs aren't wrong - well, not from a gross revenue point of view.

The variables are simply, how much gas gets produced for sale per month and the selling price of said production.

The first has to be guessed, but I've gone with George's much-repeated "1.5 million therms a month from existing wells" as an absolute minimum and his "up to 3 million therms a month with a successful sidetrack" as an absolute maximum.

As for the second, I just pop in the individual live monthly gas futures pricing as displayed on ICE (which ANGS has said is the data it itself uses). Those prices now extend way past the end of the hedge in June 2025.

[sincero1] 08/6/2022 09:06

new twitter pics and nurse wakes the stale urine smelling old grey nobodies to post...dear oh dear...so predictable...they are desperate now..1st gas and the sidetrack and nurse can remove the laptop as they will be gone....

angs slaps them in the mutton chops again...happens every single time...

[3put] 08/6/2022 08:57

HITS worked out the size of the prize if we get a successful sidetrack of over 100m in the next 3 years. (I think his calcs are wrong but even if we get that it's a game changer)

[3put] 08/6/2022 08:56

JT: 'should be attracting investors’ attention now' - Unfortunately the share price tells us that George is not credible. Now that doesn't mean there is not an opportunity here.

[jtidsbadly] 08/6/2022 08:50

1347: it’s a purely technical disagreement, then. I really don’t think they’re going to succeed. If they don’t disappear, they could possibly end up as Mercuria’s agent, running Poundland for a fee that enables them to stay in business, with further periodic cash injections from the reliable mug punters who are so well represented on the other site. A depressing prospect, really.

[1347] 08/6/2022 08:37

JT We will have to disagree then. Yes there may well be trader's spikes on the back of good news (real not imaginary) but longer term shareholder value, no I don't see it and my figures don't support that. Too much has been salami sliced away now and there's been too much dilution, with more placings and warrants yet to come. Also that mid June date is just the date they fill in the forms stating what they expect to produce. Until I see all the equipmnent on site and it's all connected up and approved and an updated EA permit is issued then it's all just piffle and wind.

[jtidsbadly] 08/6/2022 08:37

3Put: yes, it should but that’s hardly the issue. It’s looking very unlikely that Poundland will be ready in time. It’s the prospects for Anguish’s continued existence, at least in its present form, that should be attracting investors’ attention now.

[3put] 08/6/2022 08:25

1347: I think that if they get it all going as they say they will, there will still be sufficient cash flow left over, after all the debt service charges, royalty, hedges etc., to give the shareholders a much higher share price, even after the recent huge dilutions

-- It could and should have been a lot more, a half decent ceo would have given us all a few bags given what's happening with gas.

[3put] 08/6/2022 08:22

CTL with good news today

hxxps://www.voxmarkets.co.uk/rns/announcement/f3249d0e-67f9-4503-80f0-6724c05860e3/

[jtidsbadly] 08/6/2022 08:21

Some new snaps on Twitter. They haven’t finished the plant yet. That mid-June date is looking vulnerable, isn’t it? Has the HSE looked at their detailed staff training data and duty rosters, their operational manual, safety procedures manual and disaster recovery manual yet? If so, they should soon be able to get on with their checking of every weld, every nut and bolt, electrical connection etc. Did I read somewhere that those all have to be checked and signed off twice? Do the NG chaps do their inspection simultaneously with the HSE one? And when do we hear from the EA?

[3put] 08/6/2022 08:18

Add a production-doubling sidetrack kicking in from say Oct 1st and the gross revenue generated climbs to around £177 million. Mercuria still gets its £71 million, but this time ANGS is left with c. £106 million of gross revenue over that three year period. That of course would be a total game changer

[3put] 08/6/2022 08:18

eadinthesand: 3Put, the ICE gas futures pricing - although subject to variation - already adjusts for higher winter pricing

- did you factor that into your calculations?

[jtidsbadly] 08/6/2022 07:57

1347: I think that if they get it all going as they say they will, there will still be sufficient cash flow left over, after all the debt service charges, royalty, hedges etc., to give the shareholders a much higher share price, even after the recent huge dilutions. There will be a relief rally, for starters, if they meet the July hedges, which I would expect to take the share price well above its 2-year high. A successful sidetrack by October will send it much higher again. I rate the likelihood of these circumstances developing as very low, however.

The recent large selling seems to me to have been from Aleph, Forum and probably the Lenders. I’ve no doubt that they share our view that all targets and budgets are going to be missed again and that the share price will weaken and Anguish will try to come to the market for yet more cash in the next few months. Assuming they carry the motions at the EGM.

[1347] 08/6/2022 07:22

JT I disagree that shareholders will make a lot of money here. Had they got to first gas in somewhere near the timescales and at somewhere near the cost they stated then, with these elevated gas prices, then yes they would have. However after so many delays and cost increases, resulting in the onerious loan they didn't need (so they said in the earlier Malcy intreviews), multiple discounted placings, hedge comitments, royalties, high interest payments, other financial and legal payments, equity kickbacks and now ths very generous (to FESL) acquisition, then no. Much of any value there was has been salami sliced away, whether deliberate or not is impossible to determine, let's just say I have my doubts. It's clear large shareholders, who likely know more than the average punter, are selling down or out just as soon as they can, why would that be?

[headinthesand] 07/6/2022 23:52

3Put, the ICE gas futures pricing - although subject to variation - already adjusts for higher winter pricing.

[3put] 07/6/2022 23:41

That's fair.