Angus Energy Share Discussion Threads

[3put] 06/6/2022 21:55

Win for Bojo

[3put] 06/6/2022 19:33

Prem is the latest share doing the rounds on telegram, good old George Roach.

[3put] 06/6/2022 19:31

Does 3put sniff an opportunity with CLON??? Not yet but I am looking. Money to be made in turnaround plays.

[3put] 06/6/2022 19:28

ADV / EME & now CLON all busts. Risky game with explorers, better off with good old Angs.

[3put] 06/6/2022 19:26

Yes. Totally agree. Felt like Deja Vu reading the CLON RNS duster this morning

Last week there was about 400K of trades out after hours. Loads of red flags

[chickbait] 06/6/2022 19:16

Still no mention of wet commissioning yet.

I'm surprised they have not mentioned this or posted pictures of the test commencing on the Twitter page.

Is it price sensitive to announce that wet commissioning has started as they were more than happy to post pictures of the hydro testing. What?

I can't see how they can start producing gas mid June before the wet commissioning has been completed and signed off??

[chickbait] 06/6/2022 19:10

I hope for ANGS long suffering long term share holders sake they don't get a nasty RNS when they attempt to drill the unsuccessful sidetrack to date with another fail after the umpteenth time of trying!

[chickbait] 06/6/2022 19:06

Yes. Totally agree. Felt like Deja Vu reading the CLON RNS duster this morning and the ANGS Brockham RNS duster that other awful morning. Poor souls...

[3put] 06/6/2022 17:30

I thought they had a medium sized hit in the shallow target but logs while drilling are only a rough guide. How can the density show both targets water wet?

[3put] 06/6/2022 17:26

Agree, CLON didn't feel right. Lots of red flags

[jtidsbadly] 06/6/2022 16:46

6 days, HITS - they changed it last week to 13th from 15th. Watch them try to hold the price above the Aleph subscription price until next Monday’s EGM. I liked Mirasol’s summary.

[headinthesand] 06/6/2022 16:42

Naughty goings on at CLON I see...

A big (in CLON terms) raise of £3.5 million on April 27th...

...followed by a purchase of 10% of someone else's licence rights to an Aussie gas prospect for a cash and share mix on May 9th...

...followed by five very upbeat and positive-sounding RNS updates on drilling progress at said gas prospect between the 12th and the 30th of May...

...followed by today's announcement that the drill has in fact turned out to be a total duster and the resulting immediate 70%+ drop in the CLON share price

Sound vaguely familiar? Remind anyone of anything? Almost Brockham-esque...

Anyhow, just 10 days before the ANGS (E)GM to allow them to get the second £3 million off the Aleph massive, and just 24 days before what even His Pinocchio-ship has started to call a drop-dead date.

Going to be an interesting few weeks, that's for sure.

[3put] 06/6/2022 10:25

If Chikumbi -1 shows up anything like the 20 million cubic feet a day demonstrated on Hall's first well, then rather than the estimated 1.87 trillion cubic feet of gas that RPS Energy previously estimated to be in the field, on foot of the first two wells, the total could be closer to six trillion cubic feet.
Significantly, oil prices are back up at more than $100 a barrel and gas prices have been pulled up as a direct result and are likely to stay high, given the increasing commitment of the US and EU to gradually reduce and eventually ban all use of Russian gas and oil, no matter what happens with the war in Ukraine.
Previously, the estabished gas in Tanzania was $3 per 1,000 cubic feet but the going rate today is more like $10. If the step-out well drill is successful and APT proves up anything like a six trillion cubic feet gas field, with a 50% recovery rate, this would make this field worth a gross of £30bn and Aminex's 50% $7.5bn
This gas field is right at the end of a 300-mile 36-inch gas pipeline that goes all the way up to the capital city of Darsses Salam and connects up to a big power plant there, passing through a big ceramics factory and a cement plant adjacent to the field. Therefore, development of the field will not have to wait for any new pipeline infrastructure, and gas will be able to flow immediatly.
Aminex shareholders have had a awful time. Hall did an impressive job developing gas field in Russia in the 1990's before eventually selling out under duress for $20m. More recently, the company discovered the small Kiliwani gas field, before the two big onshore gas wells were drilled
The share price hit 17p in the late 1990s and fell back to 10p in the early noughties, before briefly hitting another peak of 41p in 2006 on expectation of the drill offshore Tanzania.
After Hall's first success onshore Tanzanai in 2012, the shares recovered again, this time to 7p but have never regained this level and now trade at a little less than 1p, at which the company is capitalised at £32m
Assuming the onshore drill in November shows recoverable reserve of up to three trillion cubic feet of gas as forecast, then, Aminex's net share of revenue, before the government takes its taxes, of course, would be a gross £7.5b
Even if half of this is accounted for by production costs and royalties, this would make Aminex shares worth about £1 each, 100 time the price they are trading at currently. This looks like a very wide gap and could close very rapidly if the step-out well drill delivers on expectations.
If it doesn't, the existing discovery proven up by the two successful gas wells already drilled would equate to an equivalent gross value of the field of $2.5bn. Again, assuming 50% is spent on production costs and government levies, this would leave the shares worth 30p
The unfortunate Aminex shareholders will be keeping their figures crossed that they eventually get some real good news.

[3put] 06/6/2022 10:25

Recent financing activity has been hard to understand however. In his review in the 2020 annual report last year, executive chairman, Charles Santos, describing the APT deal, said: " This transaction should see the company entirely carried to material levels of production and revenue and without the need to return to shareholders for any additional funding for the development of the Ntoya location."
That deal left Aminex without any borrowings and net cast of $0,4m at year end, while the company had also committed to reducing overheads because it was no longer activity engaged in the big Ruvuma gas field project
Moreover, a long running dispute with that state's Tanzania Petroleum Development Corp over gas sold from the Songo Island offshore field ended with a 1.85m pay-out to Aminex (albeit well short of the $8m originally claimed)
Nevertheless, in January this year the company raised $4.4m in new equity by way of a placing. This is despite the fact that Santos, has been successful in reducing the less active Aminex's ongoing costs, slashing them from $6m to $1.5 pa - a 75% reduction.
Elsewhere, Aminex believes that there are further mineral reserves yet untapped in the Kiliwani gas field offshore. Tanzania and the area is now the beneficiary of a significant 13sq km new 3D seismic survey over this field, and an adjoining one, carried out by Pan African Energy Tanzania (PAET)
Aminex has no plans to go back in and redrill its prospects here, but, if this seismic survey shows up anything exciting, the company will negotiate a further farm-out deal with PAET to develop the Kiliwani gas field
Separately, onshore in the big Ruvuma gas field, Aminex's farmout partner, APT is now completing its own 3D seismic survey over the whole field and is committed to drilling and testing the four-mile step-out well. On foot of this survey, APT, will then format a field development programme for the Ntoya gas field

[3put] 06/6/2022 10:25

It is ten years since former Aminex boss Brian Hall originally hit part dirt in the Ruvuma licence in Tanzania, when he took on sole risk after Tullow Oil pulled out of a 50/50 deal on the licence, discovering a secondary target flowing gas at 20 million cubic feet a day. Hall followed this up five years later in 2017, when he drilled the second well, Ntorya- 2, that encountered a significant 51 metres of gas bearing sands, which in turn flowed at a rate of 17 million cubic feet a day, through a restrictive choke. Today, there has been little sign of real progress but a drill planned for November could change things very quickly.
Since then, there has been a lot of coming and going with JJ Bhaattacharjee, who came on board as CEO in 2014 to develop this gas field, jumping ship in May 2019. This was surprising, given that Hall had retired as chairman in August 2018
After the big discoveries, the plan was to drill a four-mile step-out well to prove up this estimated near two trillion cubic feet gas field. This crucial well is finally set for drilling in months.
- November 2022- and should prove up the full extent of this field. Significant reserves have already been identified on foot of this first two wells, but if the new source is a success, this could turn out to be a bigger field than anticipated.
It is difficult to know what has taken so long to move things along, with Hall having raised $25 million after the first successful well, and the sultanate of Oman put up $17 million through Zubair Corporation to land a 28% shareholding. This funding paid for the second well and was so successful that it should not have been difficult to raise funds to build the third well.
Just before Hall exited in August 2018, he secured the future of Aminex by farming out two-thirds of the company's 75% stake in the Ruvuma gas field, although this deal looked a bit too cosy, involving a farm-out with ARA Petroleum Tanzania (APT), a subsidiary of Zabair Corp which is, in turn, controlled by the Sultanate of Oman.
The deal, nevertheless, looks sound in that APT is committed to drill not only the third planned well, called Chakumbi -1, but to fully develop the field and commit to spending $140m and pay £5m to Aminex upfront.
This valued its carry for Aminexat £35m. Without having to pay a cent more, Aminex will benefit for a cost-free 25% interest in the development of this field
It was only in October 2020 that the farm-out deal with ARA was finally completed. It was not helpful that the president of Tanzania, John Magufuli, ran what was a semi-dictatorship. The Covid-denier eventually contracted the virus and died in March last year, resulting in his deputy, Samia Suluhashassain, taking over the hot seat.
She has claimed she will not as autocratic as her predecessor, and plans to open up Tanzania to foreign investment and develop international relationships. On the surface at least, this should only be good for Aminex

[3put] 06/6/2022 10:25

Full Phoenix article now published on the AEX BB, see below

[3put] 06/6/2022 10:25

Hope everyone had a great time off

[jtidsbadly] 06/6/2022 08:57

If one were holding millions of these, one would be tempted to take up a window position in the coffee shop closest to the Mercuria head office and look out for the Interim MD and Carlos going in and out, what? And timing it. It’s perfectly possible that they’ll get an extension on the deadline, for an improvement in the terms in favour of Mercuria. If the share price gets close to 1p and stays there at the end of the week, next Monday’s EGM will be worth watching too.

[iceagefarmer] 03/6/2022 12:59

ukog and bloe

[shooter mcgavin] 03/6/2022 12:38

I took out my original investment and most of the profit. Apart from the spamming from 3put this forum is quite balanced.

Are you looking at any other Oil & Gas plays Wolf?

[wolfofthewoods] 02/6/2022 22:01

I can guarantee anyone holding wont be happy with me.

Judgement day is coming!