Angus Energy Share Discussion Threads

[jtidsbadly] 07/6/2022 23:34

...but it’s quite true, and everyone on here has said so, that a timely start of production at forecast levels, added to a timely, successful and maintained production from a sidetrack in October, will make shareholders here a lot of money. The argument is over the likelihood of this management achieving all this in the time left to them.

[3put] 07/6/2022 23:25

Add a production-doubling sidetrack kicking in from say Oct 1st and the gross revenue generated climbs to around £177 million. Mercuria still gets its £71 million, but this time ANGS is left with c. £106 million of gross revenue over that three year period. That of course would be a total game changer. - Fair play HITS , you have gone up in my estimation tonight

[3put] 07/6/2022 23:24

I have never disputed that JT. Just think for he balance its good to see what the size of the prize is.

[3put] 07/6/2022 23:23

& again you must adjust for higher winter prices. I get closer to 200m to Angs over next 3 years IF IF IF the sidetrack works

[jtidsbadly] 07/6/2022 23:23

3Put: HITS has stated the amount of money that Mercuria will be paid under the terms of the forward contracts that are in place with Anguish. These sums are set. They’ve contracted to supply Mercuria with the monthly cash value of set volumes of gas at set prices for three years. What Anguish may make on Poundland depends on a number of factors, including volumes, costs and market prices for gas, all of which are unknowable in advance.

[3put] 07/6/2022 23:21

Thanks , that is why I'm running some profit.

[3put] 07/6/2022 23:21

Add a production-doubling sidetrack kicking in from say Oct 1st and the gross revenue generated climbs to around £177 million. Mercuria still gets its £71 million, but this time ANGS is left with c. £106 million of gross revenue over that three year period. That of course would be a total game changer.

[headinthesand] 07/6/2022 23:15

3Put, I've answered that question many times before. However, here goes again.

At current gas futures pricing, with consistent monthly production of 1.5 million therms, the field delivers gross revenues of roughly £93 million on sales of gas over the next three years. Of that, £71 million goes to Mercuria, leaving ANGS with c. £22 million of gross revenue for that three year period.

Add a production-doubling sidetrack kicking in from say Oct 1st and the gross revenue generated climbs to around £177 million. Mercuria still gets its £71 million, but this time ANGS is left with c. £106 million of gross revenue over that three year period. That of course would be a total game changer.

It's the difference between ANGS making a net loss on Saltfleetby over the next three years (it owes over £20 million on the field before taking into account any opex costs) versus ANGS making nett profits in excess of £80 million - which neatly explains why the sidetrack is so very crucial.

JTids yes indeed. Paul Forrest cut himself an absolutely sweetheart deal, where he entirely derisked FESL and got c. £8 million quids' worth of ANGS shares and £6,5 million of cash and over £1 million of debt forgiven and zero future liabilities of any sort with regard to Saltfleetby in exchange for its 49% interest. As you say, if Forum holds onto its ANGS shares , it'll end up owning 25% of the entirety of ANGS...

What a deal. That to anyone's mind would have to be called having one's cake and eating it.

[3put] 07/6/2022 23:03

Hits knows how much Mercuria is due but can't tell us how much angs will make. Wonder why Zzzzzzz

[3put] 07/6/2022 22:59

I will upload the p90 later, flow starts to drop off in 2027. If the existing well produces more than 1.5 the revenue will be higher but depletion higher

[3put] 07/6/2022 22:58

3Put. will Angs still be around with an unsuccessful sidetrack? Seems like a reasonable question

Yes, but it might not be pleasant for LTHs. All depends on how much gas the existing wells produce first.

[jtidsbadly] 07/6/2022 22:57

3Put: I’m looking at Table 6-8 on p. 53 of the CPR. It’s profits, not volumes, but the trend is clear and there’s a big fall in 2026.

[jtidsbadly] 07/6/2022 22:48

1347: well, as I’ve said since it was announced, it appears to be a very sweet deal for Forum, whichever way you look at it. And I’ve been trying to think what leverage Mr. Forrest might have possessed which would have enabled him to negotiate such a deal, and I can’t find any. So one has to consider whether the deal was worked out with both sides knowing it was arguably an unnecessarily sweet deal for him. One can see a rationale for this but it would involve the best interests of the people negotiating it, not necessarily so much the best interests of shareholders. However, of course, in view of the status and reputation of the Angus management, any such considerations are out of the question, what? Though I suppose one could argue that the £12mm. loan deal set a precedent for Angus agreeing surprisingly generous financial terms with its counterparties.

So where does this leave us? The next four working days will be interesting. I expect a price support operation in advance of the EGM. Maybe an RNS with a bullish progress update on Thursday or Friday? Failing this, if the share price continues to weaken, the vote at the meeting (assuming the meeting is quorate) will be worth watching. If the increase in authorised capital were to be voted down, it would be a very bearish signal. Fortunately for Mr. Forrest, however, whatever happens, he will have come away from all this with something. He’s got money in the bank and no liabilities.

[chickbait] 07/6/2022 22:46

3Put. will Angs still be around with an unsuccessful sidetrack? Seems like a reasonable question

[3put] 07/6/2022 22:39

HITS , how much cash will Angs make with a successful sidetrack? Seems like a reasonable question that nobody is willing to answer

[3put] 07/6/2022 22:37

That's not quite right JT. Gas drops off in 2027 according to p90 estimation

[1347] 07/6/2022 21:58

You coming around to my thinking finally JT?

[jtidsbadly] 07/6/2022 17:22

HITS: there’s no restriction on their selling shares. If they have sold the balance, that will have gone a long way to explaining the size of the share price fall. In fact, I’d have thought the fall would have been bigger still.

The more you look at the SEL deal, the sweeter for SEL it looks. Forum has got £1mm through new share sales immediately, plus £250,000 in cash. He’s got £1.4mm. in debt forgiven. He’s got 25% of Anguish, which he can sell in four or five quarterly tranches from the end of August this year. And he appears to be getting all the cash he was going to get from gas sales until the end of 2025. From 2026, the CPR predicts quite a sharp fall in gas production. He also avoids any responsibility for the abandonment/restoration costs of the pipeline. It makes you think, doesn’t it?

A good thing the Interim MD is a finance expert, what? This is doubtless a substantial coup on his part. That makes you think a bit too, what?

[3put] 07/6/2022 16:44

Did somebody mention UKOG? What ?

[jtidsbadly] 07/6/2022 16:29

Should one assume that the 5 million shares disposed of this afternoon in three tranches are the 5 million shares given gratis to the Lenders (on the anniversary of the signing of the £12mm. loan deal early last June), for agreeing to the deal with SEL? Just another £50,000 then.

If one were Aleph, one would not have been keen to sign up to take a second huge tranche of shares at a fixed price while one was oneself selling part of one’s first tranche and SEL was selling all its 91 million shares, what? One would have required an undisclosed side-agreement between the parties to the “direct subscription” agreement to the effect that SEL would vote against the increase in authorised share capital in the event that the share price on the date of the EGM were below the issue price. What? Even the additional issue of share warrants would be insufficient incentive to subscribe to shares that would show a big loss on day one, surely? Still, I’m no finance expert.

They’ll need to support the price a bit more before the EGM, what?

[wg818] 07/6/2022 15:59

Just to be super super super clear,because even the thought sickens me, I am not the thicko WG818 posting on LSE.He posts here as well as Ja51oiler. He is now embarrassing himself again and commenting on punctuation. This is the thicko that uses a comma instead of an apostrophe and spelt Ukraine "ukrain.So to be clear , I AM NOT THAT THICKO.
What price on first gas RNS? My guess 2.25p.

[headinthesand] 07/6/2022 13:28

"..... have I missed anything ?"

Yes. The point.

[sincero1] 07/6/2022 13:01

sentiment will drive the share... they can have mine for 4p ...i'm not greedy ...