Angus Energy Share Discussion Threads

[1347] 05/1/2024 17:35

And here's the previous pen holder...

[jtidsbadly] 05/1/2024 17:28

Here is ‘erbert. He’s had too much Christmas pudding, what?

[1347] 05/1/2024 16:27

NE Lincolshire under water, like most of the 'investors' then. I see they've pretty much got that VWAP down towards where 'erbert dialled it for the Bridge Loan Too Far conversion.

[jtidsbadly] 05/1/2024 12:45

The pictures from NE Lincolnshire show a lot of flooding. What happens to gas production if Anguish can’t get their condensate away by tanker?

Meanwhile, Vast is demonstrating that the art of the p&d is alive and kicking. Anything can happen until the terms of the global re-financing, if any, are released, what?

On a personal note, I hope the previous Pen Holder had a relaxed Christmas away from the fray at Anguish. He’ll be on the moors somewhere now, I dare say, in his spouse’s garish shooting clothes. Topping.

[1347] 04/1/2024 17:34

HITS It's been frittered away, as I predicted. The best reference point so far is the interim report as it covers 6 months of production.

They made £16.466 m gross revenue. From that they crystallised and paid £11.554 m in derivatives costs. This was about £3m higher than I expected which I put down to the £3.3 m they paid off on the Hedges in December 2022. However due to the smoke and mirrors around the hedges, which they said they mainly paid in December, they somehow still ended up with another £3.5 m liability due in July 2023.

Anyway from what I can see, for H1 FY 2023, that left just £4.912 m in net revenue.

From that deduct £2.356 m in Cost of Sales; £1.499 m in G & A; and £0.856 m in finance costs. Most of these would have been cash out so that left just £200 k 'real' operating cash flow by my calcs.

However they stated: "The Group recorded a net cash inflow from operating activities of£ 6.290 million.". Not sure how they came to that figure though, must be excluding the hedge payments or something. May be technically correct but in my view it's misleading.

What I do find interesting is that under investing activities they show £10.025 m paid out for Acquisition of fixed assets and oil production assets. I'd like to see details of where that money went, they didn't pay FESL that much did they so much of it must have been sunk into Poundland? Any thoughts on that?

[headinthesand] 04/1/2024 16:25

Check out very recent events at Canadian Overseas Petroleum, 1347 (EPIC: COPL). It's yet another (much-ramped in preceding months/years) fossil fuel 3 shell game sucker stock that's now a bit further down the line than ANGS is currently in terms of PI holdings being destroyed as its already dubiously valued assets are acquired for tuppence ha'penny by its lenders.

As for ANGS, the £57 million valuation mentioned in the most recent CPR was based on gas pricing that's 15-20% higher than current levels, so can hardly be said to have been calculated conservatively.

What remains a matter of some mystery is... exactly what has ANGS spent all the money on? I mean, over the last 15 months, it seems to have produced enough gas to generate around £22.2 million (after hedge settlement). It's also had a placing for £7m (Dec 22), plus two emergency junior loans at Wonga rates (£3m in Mar 23 - paid off in confetti at end Sep 23 - and £6m in Jul 23 - due for full repayment this month).

That's over £35 million, pretty much all of which seems to have disappeared somewhere in just a year and a quarter.

And it's not like that pile of cash was used to pay off existing liabilities. As it stands right now, on top of the now £7m needed to pay off the 2nd junior loan, they still owe c. £6m on the original "£12m they said they never needed" senior loan and c. £5m to Paul Forrest.

[1347] 04/1/2024 14:40

HITS - COPL?

By the way, I noticed there was some discussion bandied about in Kansas regarding the value of Poundland, based on what's in the CPR.

It will of couse be heavily predicated on what volumes and prices are used, but one thing that isn't variable is the amount of money they've raised since aquiring the Poundland 'asset'. This stands at over £50 million (excluding the yet to come 'now you can borrow enough to get completely out of debt' loan). Most of which has been spent on Poundland and funding hapless lifestyle directors.

This also excludes payments made and deferred consideration paid by ShareCoin. So if it was £57 m deemed value, then it leaves less than £7m shareholder residual value in my books. You might want to drop that in the conversation at some point.

The other thing you might want to point out is that just before the Charge of The Lighweight Brigade the mcap was £46 million, now it's less than half that at £19 million, on which they want to borrow £20 million. Not exactly a good Debt to Equity ratio is it? See if the ocebot can spin that, he seems to think bigger losses and more debt is a good thing. Which broker does it have a connection with do you think?

[headinthesand] 04/1/2024 10:08

It seems an increasingly worrying fair bet that things are likely to go a bit COPL for ANGS...

[bilbosenior] 03/1/2024 16:50

A rise expected early this year

[1347] 22/12/2023 18:24

JT No, probably not and merry Christmas to you too.

[jtidsbadly] 22/12/2023 16:41

1347: ah well, nothing’s goung to happen here for a fortnight or so, what? So I wish you a very merry Christmas.

[1347] 22/12/2023 10:26

JT I expect it to go to the wire as it did the previous times, it helps serve vested interests.

[jtidsbadly] 22/12/2023 08:43

1347: it looks as if there won’t be much action on this until the terms of these new fixed price gas sales contracts are divulged, what? Trafigura must be carving its pound of flesh from somewhere on Anguish’s skinny, enfeebled frame.

[1347] 20/12/2023 10:29

JT As you may recall I have been suspicious of Aleph's motives all along, clearly they've already creamed a lot out of Poundland and it looks like they'll get even more fees either way. Odd that they didn't arrange the new offtake with Aleph Commodities isn't it? Maybe they are cutting and running as Mercuria seem to be?

Yes there will almost certainly be a large equity issue soon enough, either for fees, warrants exercises or deferred consideration or any combination of those. I guess insiders may well sell some of their existing holdings, flipped on this spike, to get replaced by more at some point. With late disclosure again probably.

Also, remember the option of Kemexon and Aleph getting to 30% or even 50% remains a possibility. More bends yet to come on Snake Pass I'm sure.

[jtidsbadly] 20/12/2023 09:56

1347: also, where will this leave Aleph? They’re paid off but they and their associates still have lots of shares that are miles under water. These new chaps will have them for breakfast. Will the New Year announcement include a big equity issue?

[bbd2] 20/12/2023 09:38

-- All existing senior and bridge debt to be repaid
-- Medium-term capex needs fulfilled
-- Trafigura to act as Offtaker
-- Existing hedge contract to be replaced with a fixed price offtake
-- Work on gas storage feasibility to be accelerated with funds from the new facility and revised subsurface mapping

[1347] 20/12/2023 09:23

JT Yes you could drive the old Angus Energy bus sideways through what is not clear in this RNS. It's still on Snake Pass, just on a different part of it.

They don't say what they will pay FESL, but whatever it is then with the fees etc (which may get paid in ShareCoin again, including terminating the existing loans) then I doubt there will be much left over for Capex.

No the hedge terms are not clear, without volumes and prices then you can't figure anything out. What happens to the existing 8% royalty when the Bridge Loan Too Far gets repaid by the: now you can borrow enough to get completely out of debt loan?

I assume the existing almost half a billion of Warrants at 0.66p are still in play? I note they need another 'expert' on top of all the other 'experts', so much for being a low cost operator eh? Gets 25,000,000 Options straight off, another one on the gravy train.

They were supposed to identify a gas storage partner by the end of the year, is that Trafigura or someone else? No mention of Geothermal now is there?

This will be spiked and sold into heavily I expect and it could all fall through come the New Year.

[jtidsbadly] 20/12/2023 08:55

Yes, is the answer to that. Anguish has got into bed with an outfit with strong Russian connections and a very patchy history with regard to sanctions compliance and pollution.

The information in this RNS is nowhere near complete. In particular, arrangement fees, the terms of the forward physical gas contracts, the terms under which the Mercuria contracts are being concluded. Presumably the Mercuria royalty will apply from the signing of the new loan. And, while the interest rate is a fair bit lower, the quantum is higher and will be used to pay off loans and the money still owing to Mr. Forrest, leaving Angus with £3.3mm of new money. Not enough to drill a new well. The deferral of the first year’s interest will help next year but means higher payments in the next four years, while gas flows start to fall. The 8% royalty needs to be factored in too.

Overall, Anguish appears to have got out of shark infested waters but is now surrounded by a pod of killer whales. Anguish may limp on a bit longer. Shareholders aren’t going to see any returns though, are they? No dividend. The chances of an adverse corporate action here are undiminished, in my view.

[luckyabbeygale] 20/12/2023 08:48

I'm in at 0.60p having seen this at 0.55p and being too sleepy to react when I should of.

[bbd2] 20/12/2023 08:20

Very quiet from the bashers this morning, has this announcement taken them by surprise!

[bbd2] 19/12/2023 13:50

( or perhaps more accurately, the pipeline will mysteriously spring a leak or two!)

[bbd2] 19/12/2023 13:45

At which point the Ruskies will bomb the hell out of it and the war goes international! Happy Christmas lol