Angus Energy Share Discussion Threads

[1347] 19/10/2023 09:33

Yes and after that and if the well tests are successful(which I doubt they will be) they have the obligation to produce an FDP for the OGA, which will also require more planning applications and costs for a production site. They've already had placings to pay for this work programme (so they said at the time).

[ja51oiler] 19/10/2023 08:08

So I just had a look back at the Balcombe planning application.

The cost for the works over the 30-month program was £6.6 million! Most of that in the preparatory stage....and all apparently at Angus expense. As they are liable for all costs until the well is proven commercially viable.... So after the extended well test presumably?

Understandable that Quadrilla aren't keen on chipping in when this is what they think of the chances of success!

" Andrew Price, a director of the then operator, Bolney Resources, wrote to the Department of Energy and Climate Change in 2011 saying the company would ‘need to rely, to a significant degree, on being able to undertake hydraulic fracture stimulation(s) of this unconventional reservoir’.

The letter also said ‘without the ability to undertake hydraulic fracture operations Bolney will not be able to attempt to achieve commercial production’."



No wonder they snapped Tideswell and Vonks hands off!

As sane commentators realise, The Kimmeridge fairytale has failed at each attempt using conventional methods, proving that Quadrilla were correct in their assessment.

So if Angus paid £4 million for a 25% stake and need to pay £6.6 million to test a well using conventional methods that have proven not to work as Quadrilla thought, who the hell would be interested in buying any part of it... Especially given the historical enviromental protests that took place.


Table 5. Economic Effects
Economic Effects Per Annum Duration of development
(Approx. 30 months)
Salaries The site (permanent roles) £150,000 £375,000
Contractors
(temporary roles)
£75,000 £187,500
Subtotal (Salaries) £225,000 £562,500
Expenditure on local goods and
services
£1,709,000 £4,272,500
Placing Orders with Plant Suppliers
and Building Contractors
£333,000 £832,505
Other Payments £380,000 £950,000
Subtotal (Payments) £2,422,000 £6,055,000
Total £2,647,000 £6,617,50

[jtidsbadly] 18/10/2023 20:00

1347: yes, and the enormous time and cost overruns of the recent sidetrack make one a little sceptical of the £5mm-odd forecast of the cost of drilling the deeper wells planned for 2025 and 2026. 45 days? £2.3mm? Ack Ack Ack. And why are they even talking about the oil properties, unless they’ve found some mug to buy them out? Which is vanishingly unlikely. They haven’t got the money, and won’t have, without a sustained high flow of gas from their existing wells and a sustained high price for it. Success even then will depend on the outcome of corporate actions over the next few months.

[1347] 18/10/2023 19:01

JT Well they didn't exactly knock the door down to get in on Lidsey Back in the Frame did they and what happened to all those potential bidders in the data room (allegedly) during the Sound confetti swap offer? More potatoes needed.

I agree with some earlier comments, the economic viability of Poundland is heavily predicated on NBP prices remaining elevated and two successful drills and I noted the comments about the last one:

"The reservoir penetrated by the horizontal sidetrack of well B7T may be of poorer quality than expected. It is producing at lower flowrates than those forecast in the October 2021 CPR, though the reduction in horizontal length from planned 450m to actual 180m and the deployment (and subsequent acidising) of calcium carbonate for mud cake whilst drilling are also major factors in its reduced deliverability."

Oh dear, that was after three attempts at a simple drill, well simple according to the late departed story teller, but the Martians knew better. I note the Capex and Opex figures, what was that about being a low cost operator? Halbiburton must be laughing as much as the Martians are.

Any idea why they now use Naptha costs rather than discounted Brent for the condensate? Looking at the trucking and disposal costs they are hardly making anything on it?

I notice as well as all the others who have now got their snouts in the Poundland trough the inept and corrupt UK government has now joined them with the EPL, making it an even less attractive proposition. All as I expected and predicted.

[jtidsbadly] 18/10/2023 18:37

1347: they’ll only get farminees if they finally recognise the opportunity, offered to them on a plate, of potatoes. A delicious, versatile vegetable, not to be sniffed at. I can’t see Earnest ‘Erbert grasping this, he hasn’t got the look of the bon vivant recently released from his Chiswick sinecure. Still, Chiswick’s loss is Clubland’s gain and that epicure can now concentrate on his career modelling the missus’s colourful, tight-fitting shooting clothing. What? I mean to say.

[1347] 18/10/2023 15:38

Yes JT I meant the gas volume.

As for Balcombe, all of Cuadrilla's assets were initially acquired for fracking, in fact they are still listed as shale assets on the A J Lucas website. It was not true when the current pen holder (who also seems to be acquiring an aversion to facts) stated there was never any intention to frac the site, there clearly was, although they now say they don't need to.

Either way it's a 'tight' formation that I doubt will flow for other than a relatively short period, if at all (similar to Horse Hill), but hey ho let's see how the test goes, if they ever get round to it that is, I expect serious can kicking on that point, similar to that on the Hokey Cokey assets. The circumstances around the first test remain suspicious to me.

I can't see anyone interested in farming in and it would be an act of folly surely to buy more interest, they spent over £4 million to get 25% so anything over say a £5 for the rest would be more money down the drain.

[sincero1] 18/10/2023 13:26

13reallyneedsahobbycptmainwaring47 " Not gone through the CPR yet, not high on my To Do List."..... i bet , this insignificant stale urine smelling old nobodys days are full enough already aren't they ....

nurse wakes him , changes, washes and feeds him...wheels him over to the staring window for a bit...nap time....meds...another nap time... pc time to log on pointlessly to troll angs , vast, ukog, ujo avct... nurse changes him again... nap time ... nurse changes him again .... nap time ... dinner...nap time... nurse changes him again... sedated until the morning ...

[jtidsbadly] 18/10/2023 13:07

... oh, sorry, you were referring to production, not price.

[jtidsbadly] 18/10/2023 13:06

1347: did it?

[1347] 18/10/2023 13:03

Ooops gas dropped off again, that won't help...

[jtidsbadly] 18/10/2023 13:01

1347: their recent comments on Balcombe are open to the interpretation that they're considering selling them, assuming anyone wants them. Cuadrilla won’t - they prefer to frack. The operatorship with just a 25% interest means they may have trouble squeezing the financing from their senior partners. It’s not going to happen, is it? Back in the frame for a few more years, unless there’s a big sustained rise in energy prices.

Still, it’s all academic, there should be a low bid some time in the next few months. Even without one, the lenders will have effective control, so there should be more usurious loans with equity warrants. Any remaining company earnings will go to servicing these, leaving nothing for small shareholders. I don’t think the new management is any more candid than the previous one.

[1347] 18/10/2023 12:43

Not gone through the CPR yet, not high on my To Do List. However let's not forget that they've raised over £40 m in the last 3 years since Lucan finally admitted that getting Poundland into production for circa £2.5 m was pure fantasy. Plus huge shareholder dilution via placings and use of ShareCoin to pay fees etc.

Now we have a situation where a large proportion of the revenue accrues to Mercuria, Aleph and Kemexon via hedges and loans, with royalty yet to come. I said right from when they acquired Poundland that I doubted whether there would ever be any return from it and there hasn't been, other than for insiders getting and flipping discounted shares and warrants.

As regards the FCA JT, well you could always wake them from their slumbers and ask them. As I've said many times, it's not a proper market and the term London Laundomat is quite apt.

[jtidsbadly] 18/10/2023 12:21

JA51: ....furthermore, if they're planning to drill a new well at the end of Q3 2024, they’d better stop planning and start ordering the kit and engaging the drillers, what? If the recent past is any guide.

They seem to have been spending about £4.5mm p.a. on opex this year. It’s not surprising that they excluded from the AEWB3 Accounts that very useful cash flow and expenses table. It seems to me they’re running hard to stand still. And if they don’t repay their £6mm plus usurious interest of c. £600,000 to Aleph by mid-January (either by negotiating a cheaper facility or through another really massive dilution - which would probably require a bid), they will be over a barrel again. I don’t know what the FCA would say about a big new loan with yet more cheap warrants, giving the lenders a huge platform for a bid for the minorities. The small shareholders would be effectively disenfranchised. No dividend, no chance of a meaningful vote. Not what you invest in shares for, really.

[jtidsbadly] 18/10/2023 10:17

JA51: yes, we speculated at the time that the management’s “not that much” statement might disguise a figure very close to the £800,000 per month.

Re condensate, do you know offhand how many days’ production at current levels will fill their storage capacity? If it’s full, they will either have to exceed their permitted maximum weekly tanker movements or curtail gas production, won’t they?

[ja51oiler] 18/10/2023 10:04

JT

Anyone who has read that CPR and has followed this company for any length of time will and should be scratching their heads at some of the figures and statements produced.

I guess it explains the tumbleweed over in Kansas!!??

Did you see the new sales rate listed on condy for example Its gone from a $5 dollar below brent to this!

Angus Energy plc, Saltfleetby Gas Field, PEDL005
Page 70 of 91
9.2. Condensate Sales Price forecast at Harwich Refinery
The condensate price forecast was based on the naphtha forward price; Table 9-7 refers. The
price was escalated by 2% pa after 2028.
Table 9-7 Forecast Condensate Price £/bbl
Year Condensate
price £/bbl
2023 £31.8
2024 £29.9
2025 £27.0
2026 £24.8
2027 £20.1
2028 £20.1


And, £500K a year at present for water disposal!.... And that's only going to increase!

Looks like that well known detractor who estimated the company outgoings as a whole at £800k a month wasn't too far out in their estimations either. Total expenditure in August ( The month the Q&A was answered "with Not that much")was £621,907 for saltfleetby alone.Lets not forget the head office directors salaries and other ha hum "assets" costs!

Its like someone has been "DISINGENUOUS" isn't it?

[jtidsbadly] 18/10/2023 09:48

JA51: Anguish haven’t mentioned the term “Global Re-Financing” recently, have they? Not that I’ve seen. I think Mercuria want their money back and they want their royalty, which, as the CPR demonstrates, is free money and a lot of it. The £3mm bridge loan is being repaid through the upcoming equity issue. They’ve completely abandoned the previous Pen Holder’s commitment to no further dilution. Talk of next summer is probably redundant, since the junior lenders will soon have effective control and may need to make a bid, which they can do at a low price. Whether they’ll manage a successful p&d and follow it with a barrage of bad news to get the share price down to a level at which shareholders will be prepared to accept their terms is clearly moot.

[ja51oiler] 18/10/2023 09:45

Let's not worry though!They still have geothermal with its £60 million at least price tag that they would need to borrow ?

[ja51oiler] 18/10/2023 09:28

Being very generous And Using the P50 numbers and only £2 million each on Balcombe, Lidsey and Brockam lets call it £30 million they need.

@ 18% Interest (as we have been told) thats £5.4 million a year in interest alone!

[ja51oiler] 18/10/2023 09:10

Its a good job it is frank.

It still doesn't explain how they will pay the £8.5 million P90, £8.1 Million P50 assigned in costs next year!....Or Mr Forrests £5.2 Million owing.......Or that $25 Million "Global finance package should they be lucky enough to get it (The odds of that just went down after that CPR).

Come to that, how are they intending to pay for the works at Balcombe, Lidsey and Brockham?... At least a couple of millions each!

So that's £14 million they don't have for next year without paying the £6 million bridge (not included in the CPR) or Mr Forrests, owed £5.2 million.

Thats considerably more than the $25 million "Global Finance Package" and that doesn't include the £6 million plus included in that to pay Mercuria back!



Its a bit bleak isnt it?

[fat frank] 18/10/2023 08:21

The hedge is halved next June

[ja51oiler] 17/10/2023 21:41

P90 It is then...."reality check"

Page 3

• As a reality check, a production profile was generated using the reduction in flowing
wellhead pressures with cumulative production observed since August 2022. It shows a
good match to the P90 recoverable volume.

And the previous P90 graph actually replaced with a far more pessimistic one. Production dropping to 6.5 MMFSFD in November 24 from around now fairly rapidly (Page 58)

6.5 mmscfd only just beats the Hedge!!

[jtidsbadly] 17/10/2023 18:38

Is that really Malcy in that CEO interview? He looks as if he’s had an unpleasant surprise or has been for his first bout of exercise since Covid.

[ja51oiler] 17/10/2023 13:12

Ermm....ths isnt what they told us!!


6. Sales Condensate Production since August 2022
AEWB reports that 31,271 bbls of condensate have been sold from wells A4 and B2 from August
30th, 2022, to August 1st, 2023. This implies a sales condensate flowrate of about 94 bbls/d.
However, roughly 40 bbl/d condensate from well B7T is not included in these sales figures
because it has been out of sales specification since the well started production. Wells B2 and A4
produce about 21-23 bbls condensate / MMSCF of sales gas. Interestingly, since it started
production in May 2023, well B7T is producing at a lower CGR, 14 - 16 bbl/MMSCF. Table 6-1
refers. The combined CGR at the Effective Date is 18.8 bbl/MMSCF.

[ja51oiler] 17/10/2023 12:48

Only just started reading and found this!

Angus Energy plc, Saltfleetby Gas Field, PEDL005 Page 12 of 91
9. AEWB’s compression is currently designed to operate at 10 MMSCFD wellhead flowrate
at a minimum flowing wellhead pressure constraint of 17.5 barg. When the flowing
wellhead pressure declines to 17.5 barg, the flowrate will automatically reduce until
booster compression is installed10. The P90 & P50 schedule for start of booster
compressor operation is October 2024. It is likely that a 10 MMSCFD flowrate will not
be sustainable until the booster compressor is operational. P50 and P90 Capex of £2.3m
and £2.6m, respectively are included in the cash flow calculations for the booster
compressor, and this includes investment to uprate the compressors to process 12
MMSCFD wellhead gas in time for the fourth well, SF9, to enter production in January
2025.
10. The cooling capacity of the compressors imposes an additional constraint of 9 MMSCFD
at air temperatures above 23 Deg C. This will be remedied during the August 2024
planned shutdown. (At low air temperatures, the compressors can currently achieve 12
MMSCFD)

[1347] 17/10/2023 10:33

JT Does that last bit qualify as yet another pump failure?

I see they've now uploaded the full CPR, which I'll go through later, I note your points.