Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[bumpa33] 10/5/2020 18:36

Cheers Wan 18981.

[baddeal] 10/5/2020 18:27

Link worked for me cc and I'm not premium subscriber.Mind you having read the article I'm none the wiser as I can't say I get the significance of the gold:oil index.Yes oil is an important cost component of mining gold but I don't see the real relevance

[walter walcarpets] 10/5/2020 18:26

cc: I'm a freerider and your posted "link" doesn't work for me :-(

[wanobi] 10/5/2020 18:24

anyone recently posted or looked in on this thread,, please do tick up or tick down the thread at the top,,, many thanx for doing so :-) also, please, anyone that ticks down, please do tell me what you don't like and also suggest any improvements you'd like to see :-),,,,, cheers Wan :-)

[brasso3] 10/5/2020 18:23

Looks like its time to go short on oil! I cannot believe they can come to that conclusion!

[jeanesy] 10/5/2020 17:59

Looks like the weather is finally warming up in Gedabek. Lets hope it gives the shareprice a shot in the arm as we move towards some results and possibly news on quite a few fronts.

[wanobi] 10/5/2020 17:58

just catching up with 'Andrew Marr',,,

having spent the day finishing the 'Market Wizards' which has really helped clear my mind Rb,,,, truly great book,,, many thanx,,, I'm much happier now with some of the recent risk reduction / scaling out decisions I have taken... :-) :-) and now I'm acutely aware of some I should have taken and some I will be taking :-),,,,

anyway back to Mr Marr,,, Prof Peter Horby Oxford Uni, The New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Committee Chairman, known as cv19's Mr Treatment :-) like it :-),,, is currently running the worlds largest randomised clinical trial for the potential treatments for cv19, the recovery trial (we are aware of) - he spoke about a lot of things, but key for any 4D investors,,,, he said

"they have some 9500 patients in the trial across the whole of the UK, 170 hospitals, biggest trial in world, 2 aspects to cv19, the virus itself & replication, BUT, there's also a lot of inflammation and so we have other drugs that target the inflammation and you need both I think, the best therapeutic approach would be a combination of one or more anti-virals, plus something that dampens down the immune response to the virus"

4D - "There is an urgent need for a safe and effective therapy to prevent and treat the severe inflammatory symptoms of COVID-19, to alleviate the significant burden on hospitals and intensive care units (ICUs). Targeted immunomodulation may be beneficial in these patients."

if and again as always its still a big IF 4D's drug works,,, then, hmmm, well, cough cough,,,, should be good for the share price... :-)

GLA Holders
Cheers
Wan :-)

[fozzie] 10/5/2020 17:50

Thanks for the suggestions Mad and Jeansey.

[wanobi] 10/5/2020 17:35

ouchhhhhh pogue, YIKES,,, that's very sobering indeed :-) Cheers Wan :-)

[goodgrief] 10/5/2020 17:07

Art Berman is an oil analyst worth following...httpS://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/m.investing.com/news/commodities-news/energy--precious-metals--weekly-review-and-calendar-ahead-2167211%3fampMode=1?client=safari

[walter walcarpets] 10/5/2020 15:44

crazycoops: saint in exile is right; it just saves having to highlight and paste.

[the stigologist] 10/5/2020 15:38

EVG that statement reads like someone suffering from Stockholm Syndrome

"My captors are brilliant and treating me fine. Please pay them the ransom immediately"

[crazycoops] 10/5/2020 15:37

No I don't, I am a premium subscriber - are you sure my link doesn't work because it looks fine from my view?

[saint in exile] 10/5/2020 14:18

Crazy You have to put a capital in to make a link.

[crazycoops] 10/5/2020 13:58

The irresistible glow of the gold miners https://www.merian.com/gb/en/individual/insights/the-irresistible-glow-of-the-gold-miners/

[pogue] 10/5/2020 13:36

A heads up to what can happen if you are missing a vital piece of information others are aware of


The April 20 historic oil price crash that sent the prompt May WTI contract plunging to the unheard of price of negative $40 per barrel now seems like ancient history with oil back in the $20s (at least until the June contract matures in 10 days) and stocks are delightfully levitating, but to one trader what happened on that fateful Monday will remain a permanent scar of how everything can go terribly wrong in the blink of an eye. Syed Shah, a 30-year-old daytrader, would usually buy and sell stocks and currencies through his Interactive Brokers account, but on April 20 he couldn’t resist trying his hand at some oil trading. Shah, working from his house in a Toronto suburb, figured he couldn’t lose as he spent $2,400 snapping up crude at $3.30 a barrel, and then 50 cents. Then came what looked like the deal of a lifetime: buying 212 futures contracts on West Texas Intermediate for an astonishing penny each.

and another interesting article highlighting bubbles and the mentality when one is happening well worth reading in the context of the pharma boom we are having if not the Tesla one the article is actually about



When an "it" stock really goes ballistic, conventional analysis becomes pointless. It's all about momentum. Buy first, think later. bother with research now? This thing's a rocket! As the momentum maniacs piled in after Piecyk's call, Internet message boards were swamped with sophomoric posts, often fixated on hourly price fluctuations. On the day of Piecyk's call, 3,034 posts poured into Yahoo!'s Qualcomm message board. Old-timers bemoaned the "RIP factor"--the low ratio of intelligent posts. Intoxicated with profits, one gleeful investor crowed, "I AM A GENIUS." A fellow philosopher contributed this pithy and profound insight: "1000 yea baby yea."..................

In January 2008, as the subprime crisis was brewing and Bear Sterns approached its demise, oil prices hit $100 a barrel for the first time in history. By May of the same year, as WTI exceed $120 a barrel, Goldman Sachs warned that oil was heading towards $200 a barrel:

Mr Murti said the energy crisis could be coming to a head as a lack of adequate supply growth was becoming apparent. He said: “The possibility of $150-$200 per barrel seems increasingly likely over the next six to 24 months.” He added that the spare capacity of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to cushion against unexpected supply shocks was very low.

The fact that the global economy was facing acute economic challenges in the summer of 2008, didn’t dent the oil price rally, nor did it lesson analysts enthusiasm for oil prices:

Oil recently hit US$135 a barrel, more than double where it was a year ago. And the once unimaginable prospect of oil at US$200 a barrel is gaining currency among the world’s most respected oil watchers. Jeff Rubin, chief economist with CIBC World Markets, predicts oil will rocket to that level by 2012. Goldman Sachs figures we’ll get there even sooner. Other analysts, meanwhile, have begun to float more startling figures, of oil at US$250, even US$300 a barrel.

[brasso3] 10/5/2020 11:55

This week will see gold break out IMO. I think the run up to $1800 is going to happen before the end of May. I cannot see gold punching through that level first time and we most likely will get some kind of cup-handle formation on the chart. I think lows of $1600 are still possible in 2020 but it won't last long.

[wanobi] 10/5/2020 11:44

thanx all,,, I will add it to the header Bumpa, cheers Wan :-)

[pogue] 10/5/2020 11:44

I have finally had a chance to read the excellent article posted by Wan on the gold and oil prices, very interesting. I focused on the oil price but find their assumptions miss a few valid points.
1. The oil market was in over supply before this crisis as OPEC+ were looking to increase the quota cuts to try and raise the price of oil they skipped over that.
2. They assume a return to the same demand as before this crash next year when even after the 2008 crash, which is mild compared to this, it took nearly 2 years return and add in the price took 3 years to get to get over $100 having crashed from $140.
3. The assumption that we are going to get back to the same level of demand next year as we were at in Feb is optimistic I suggest considering airlines are predicting 2 to 3 years to get back to the same capacity, the shift to home working is massive right now from what I see most people's companies are looking at making it permanent, social distancing is not going to stop any time soon which is going have a long term impact on consumption of everything and there is a high chance of a second spike in CV19 judging by the outbreak Korea is now dealing with, I suggest America is certain to have one considering the policies there which will spread it worldwide.
4 If Trump is in power he is going to stop any spikes in the oil price with everything he has got when the US is trying to come out of a recession. He will allow $60 a barrel though. If Biden is in power he will be looking to reintegrate Iran into the global market which is 4mbpd. Consideration of what the worlds largest consumer and producer of oil wants should be considered a major factor.

All of the above mean that losses due to stripper wells etc, totaling 4+ mbpd, not coming back on line will be covered I suggest.

Overall though it made me think and look at lots of graphs on demand and production and I agree oil will rise in price this and next year and probably spike a few times due to the lag in returning production but not very high as production coming back on line in my view will cover the shortfall because of the points above.
Predicting oil price I should add is a mugs game any further than a few months at best just looking at articles over the years this morning I actually laughed at how badly wrong common belief was at certain times.

CMB
Regards PFC which was mentioned I sold my trader holding at a large profit either before or after you not at the top as I think you got, but a multiple of what I paid, and kept the smaller core holding in my high yield portfolio I did not sell as it was underwater in Feb when I sold most of the rest of that portfolio. I would not buy these right now as contractors generally follow oil companies out off recession as oil has to rise and stay up before contractors get orders hence it is a perfect place to buy when an uptrend in the oil price is more obvious, which is where I came in the last time. You will not off course get the bottom but then again picking a bottom only gets you smelly fingers as has been proven this week in PTAL.

[jbravo2] 10/5/2020 11:37

You got it gf, mf.
Especially if their predictions are conservative.
It's not out of the question we smash the 100m revenue target. $120m is more than possible.
Middle of the road from their target (66koz Au) @ $1600/oz should see us there once you add the copper and silver, and of course the interest from the cash in bank. Wonder if we're still getting 3%? Perhaps not.

Clearing over 60m in the year? :O

All very possible if gold stays this high. Will be interesting to watch as we near the 27th.

[mad foetus] 10/5/2020 11:00

A lot of attention has been given to Paul Tudor-Jones revelation that he is buying Bitcoin for his clients. At the end of the same research note he says this about gold: Speaking of gold, in a low-carry world, gold remains a very attractive hedge against the Great Monetary Inflation and hedges against other risks clouding the outlook, including a renewed flare up in the China-US relationship where financial sanctions could eventually be used in a brute-force decoupling. How far can gold rally from its current price? A simple metric based on the ratio of the value of gold above ground to global M1 suggests gold could rally to 2,400 before it reaches valuations consistent with the lowest of the last three peaks in this valuation metric and 6,700 if we went back to the 1980 extremes. One thing is for sure, these are going to be incredibly interesting times.