Anexo Share Discussion Threads

[scepticalinvestor] 04/9/2023 11:58

Volume picking up

[trendz1] 30/8/2023 10:07

Yep - liquidity dried up. Can’t really ignore the value on offer here

[scepticalinvestor] 30/8/2023 09:10

Bit of a strange drop on v low volume

[trendz1] 29/8/2023 07:42

Simon Thomspon note has been published in this week’s IC. May help with the impending rerate from a p/e of 4!

[gusrezo] 23/8/2023 15:59

I still don't understand the strategy of the company. After shrinking the number of vehicles during the period, which has brought a positive cash flow and some debt reduction, again the fleet is growing. They keep on funding more cases than Bond turner settles (there's a difference of 500, well, better than 1,500 in H12022, but not acceptable) and with house disrepair is happening the same: a backlog of almost 3,300 open cases an just settle roughly 900 in H1, almost 2 years are needed to clear the backlog without new cases funded!!. So trade receivables keep growing and I'm afraid the debt will grow again at some point in the near future. Maybe the main shareholders are milking the company lending money at >10% interest rates.

[rivaldo] 23/8/2023 07:59

Yes, their debt forecast is significantly better than WH Ireland's, with £61m at the end of this year falling to £56.6m next year.

[p1nkfish] 23/8/2023 07:46

It's debt, much mention of that?
Debt ratios etc?

[rivaldo] 23/8/2023 07:26

Zeus have released a new 23 page note this morning. They don't have a price target, but summarise with share upside of >100%:

"Valuation:

Anexo trades on an FY23E EV/Sales of 1.0x, an EV/EBITDA (inc. lease liabilities) of 3.4x and a P/E of 4.2x with a prospective dividend yield of 2.4% based on a conservative c.10% payout ratio of adj. EPS. Relative peer multiples imply share price upside of >100%. Our forecasts do not assume any benefit from the Mercedes Benz Emissions Claim, despite the manufacturer having already paid-out in the United States. An agreement in the Group Litigation Action currently in process would result in additional material cash inflows in 2024."

They also state:

"On an EV/EBITDA basis, comparable peers suggest Anexo should trade at least double its current 3.4x multiple. Assuming Anexo traded in line with the average of the UK legal services sector FY23 P/E of 9.5x would imply a share price of 149.4p, upside of 125% versus the current price. Removing Keystone Law, which trades at a premium to the wider sector, would still imply a PE of 7.3x, or 175% upside to current levels. Our forecasts do not include any benefit from a potential agreement in the ongoing Mercedes Benz Emissions Claim, despite the manufacturer having already paid -out to consumers in the United States. Anexo is representing 12,000 claimants in the Group action,. The Group also sees scope for further action against at least six other major manufacturers over time."

[timmythedog] 22/8/2023 21:47

I’d be careful about using the word fraud if I were you. Any evidence for that?

[p1nkfish] 22/8/2023 18:12

STB will have received some cash and helped de-risk exposure to ANX. I hold STB too and was a lovely partial bounce back but should have further to go all being well.

[p1nkfish] 22/8/2023 17:58

Still here and do hold but that doesn't stop me from saying what I see. I'm quite capable of being negative on a holding and positive on something I don't hold. Vis versa etc etc.

[trendz1] 22/8/2023 17:29

Simon Thompson at the IC ha changed from Hold to Buy. Seems like someone was selling a large position today? Fair value is miles off, so I’m happy to wait. I think over 6 months, this will be back to NAV

[scepticalinvestor] 22/8/2023 17:11

What happened to pink? Had some interesting, albeit rather bearish insights..

[scepticalinvestor] 22/8/2023 17:05

Fantastic volume today

[trendz1] 22/8/2023 14:26

On this morning’s call, Nick DB said that a new note from Zeus would be released very soon. Will be interested to see their new price target. £2 plus I expect

[rivaldo] 22/8/2023 13:52

Arden had a 300p price target before being acquired by Zeus Capital earlier this year. Haven't seen a new note from Zeus yet today.

WH Ireland have raised their forecasts as Tole states above - they note in particular that:

"issues in rented housing, both private and social, and which have been well-publicised in the press, suggest that a large, relatively untapped, pool of potential clients exists in the Housing Disrepair sector."

They summarise:

"Forecasts: Revenue and PBT forecasts are lifted for FY23E bearing in mind the VW
settlement, which was not included in our forecasts. Hence FY23E PBT is raised by 40% to £25.2m, and EPS from 11.8p to 15.0p (+27%). Bearing in mind the “cash first” mantra, and reflecting a strongly growing business, we are pleased to be able to improve our net debt forecasts, with a new FY23E forecast standing at £66m, a 7% improvement YoY, feeding through to £63m in FY24E (-10%)."

[trendz1] 22/8/2023 11:36

Which analyst?

[scepticalinvestor] 22/8/2023 11:14

Fantastic volumeAnalyst forecast is now 300p...

[tole] 22/8/2023 09:22

WhIreland upped their FY23 PBT forecasts by 40% to 25.2m from (18.1m) and raised EPS to 15p from (11.8p). Also reduced net debt forecast figures to 66m from 73m

[rivaldo] 22/8/2023 08:42

Looks like one of my bottom of the table stocks is making a strong push up the table....

Excellent interims today, with a huge reduction in debt even excluding the VW case winnings. Housing cases are growing fast (48% year on year) and should therefore continue to improve cash flows. There's a definitive statement that further growth won't be needed to be funded from debt.

And with 8.6p EPS in H1 alone there's great confidence that forecasts for the year will be met.

At these depressed levels ANX would seem to offer minimal downside and potentially large - and quick - upside.

With DBAY in the background holding 28.51%, perhaps this is the time for them to raise to 29.99% and/or come back in with another bid.

[tole] 22/8/2023 08:11

https://www.thebusinessdesk.com/northwest/news/2119703-anexo-slashes-net-debt-and-targets-growth-during-second-halfAnexo slashes net debt and targets growth during second halfAlan SellersMarkets | August 22 2023 | Neil Hodgson Anexo is on target to meet expectations for its full year figures after publishing strong first half results today.The Liverpool-based specialist integrated credit hire and legal services provider with offices in Bolton and Leeds, achieved a 13.4% increase in revenues of £77.8m for the six months to June 30, 2023, while pre-tax profits of £15.2m represented an 11.8% increase.Cash collection grew by 14% to £77.4m, and net debt was significantly reduced. Net Debt as at June 30, 2023 stood at £61.2m (June 30, 2022: £74.2m, December 31, 2022: £73.1m).The group said it has shown robust growth within legal services, driving the increase seen in cash collections. Housing disrepair (HDR) continues to be an ever-increasing element, with revenues increasing by more than 25%. The HDR division settled 884 claims in the first half of 2023 (H1 2022: 556) and now has a portfolio of 3,291 claims (H1 2022: 2,218).The results for the period include the agreement reached in the VW emissions case. The terms of the agreement are subject to confidentiality restrictions. The group announced on June 5, 2023, that the agreement had resulted in a net positive cash position to Anexo of £7.2m.Anexo continued its investment in litigation concerning the Mercedes Benz Emissions Claim, with a total of more than 12,000 claimants now forming part of the group action.Vehicle numbers continued to be carefully managed to maximise efficient use of working capital, supporting the significant reduction in net debt. Strong growth is forecast for the second half of 2023 resulting from a steady increase in vehicle numbers.The average number of group vehicles on the road in half one, 2023 reached 1,634, some 20% below that seen in H1 2022 (2,034). Vehicle numbers at August 18, 2023, totalled 1,795.Alan Sellers, executive chairman, said: "The board has been focused on delivering a meaningful reduction in net debt and increasing cash collections during the first half of the year."The results presented here are testament to the quality of our people, the ever-increasing diversity of the group's activities and our commitment to investment into future growth and opportunities for the business."He added: "We are immensely proud to be able to offer social justice and full legal support to our clients and members of the public. Anexo provides assistance to people who find themselves in an invidious position through no fault of their own, whether through being deprived of an essential vehicle or through living in substandard housing conditions, along with the other problems which may be exacerbated by such situations. We remain committed to providing help to those who might otherwise be unable to obtain redress."Having demonstrated our ability to drive the business for cash generation, we are expecting growth in vehicle numbers, revenues and profits in the second half of the year, without the need to fund this growth from our current debt facilities. As cash collections continue to increase, we will be able to invest further and drive growth across all our divisions including HDR and emissions claims."The strong progress being made in HDR and group emissions litigation underpins the forecast growth in the core business. The board remains confident of meeting market expectations for the year."The group is considering payment of a shareholders' dividend, saying it continues to invest heavily in future opportunities, including HDR and emissions and the board has, therefore, resolved that the interests of the group and its shareholders would be best served by considering the position with regards to payment of a dividend following the preparation of the group's full year results.Anexo also announced today that Mark Bringloe will be returning to the group as interim chief financial officer with immediate effect.Mark originally joined the group as finance director in 2009 and was appointed CFO on Anexo's admission to AIM in 2018. He left the group in July 2022 and since then has been involved in other projects.Prior to joining Anexo, Mark worked at Ernst & Young, Robson Rhodes and BDO, where he was a corporate finance director. He played a key role in guiding the group through its IPO in 2018 and has a comprehensive understanding of the group and the broader legal services and credit hire sectors.Gary Carrington will remain on the board as operational/commercial director focusing with other senior management on implementation and development of technical processes, and exploring commercial opportunities within the group to support its growth and diversification in credit hire, HDR and Emissions work streams.Alan Sellers said: "Mark has worked as an integral part of the management team for many years and his extensive knowledge of the group's operations and its business and shareholder relationships are a great asset."We would like to thank Gary for his valuable work over the past few months and are very pleased to have him working as part of senior management to use his technical skills in support of the business and the future exciting opportunities for the group."

[scepticalinvestor] 22/8/2023 07:40

I take it you are still bearish on this Pink?Be interested to know your reasoining/s?

[p1nkfish] 22/8/2023 07:28

Debt is a 4 letter work currently, even if they can carry it.