Anexo Share Discussion Threads

[pen13] 10/5/2023 16:56

That's why they fired the CFO on 14 April, after only nine months in job and now have a temp.CFO.

[p1nkfish] 10/5/2023 16:32

Management changes needed.

[gusrezo] 10/5/2023 15:31

reading the report, at some point it seems debt covenants were broken, probably this is the reason they are downsizing the credit hire division -due to the pressure of lenders:
"Each of the Group’s banking arrangements are subject to monitoring through financial performance measures or covenants. During the year, certain of these measures and covenants within the Secure Trust facility came under pressure and required action by the Group which included a regular dialogue between all parties to ensure that the reasons behind the breaches were fully understood, agreed and ultimately waived. All the required waivers were fully in place post year end."
And also they borrowed money at !!+13%!! above the basic central bank rate.

[gusrezo] 10/5/2023 08:14

cash flow (before working capital movements): 40,8 -10,2(lease payments) = 30,6.
WC movements : 33,5
trade and other receivables: from 188M to 222M (higher increase than revenue: 118--->138)
Debt: +15,8.

You cannot grow a business just with debt and unpaid bills. They should have reduced the fleet a few semesters ago, since the legal department is not able to process all the claims, they cannot keep on rolling the ball forward...

[value_spotting] 19/4/2023 16:59

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[boozey] 15/4/2023 03:06

A rather terse RNS. It is always worrying when a CFO resigns suddenly especially after only 9 months and a stop gap CFO is appointed. More to that than meets the eye and I hope there are no governance issues. The fact that his resignation was dressed up in a broader RNS around Mercedes Class Action is also slightly worrying.

[ggrantsu] 14/4/2023 22:53

you don't launch a case against Mercedes unless you know your outcome with VW is positive...read between the lines!!!!

[p1nkfish] 14/4/2023 15:58

Merc timetable announced and Fryer gone. There since early Aug 2022 so about 9 months max.

[ggrantsu] 05/4/2023 15:50

With all due respect...many people here are just totally failing to see the wood through the trees.

This stock is now a symptom if the VW settlement being the only driver of the share price...a real shame because the business is performing beautifully and its long-term prospects are fantastic. However...Mr Market and short-term investors always want the next short-term catalyst...forget long-term value creation and the fact we trade on silly low multiples with great growth prospects.

But anyway...in regards to the emissions cases...which everyone is obsessed about - what's even more astounding than the above short-term thinking is the way everyone is trying to claim VW is dead in the water / silence is a bad thing. Therium Capital Management settled the same case last year, the same cases have been settled around the world...and the silence tells us one thing - they are in an NDA period and in instances like this you will always get absolute silence when an agreement is being constructed. It is highly unlikely this won't be a success - might have to wait months from here, but it's written in the stars. And by the way, use your logical part of the brain - they pretty much tell you in the recent update VW has been a success. Why? Because why the hell would they commit to pursuing Mercedes now legally if they were not assured of the success of the model.

Everyone needs to look at this logically...the way the business is priced you'd think it was a terrible zero growth business about to go into 5 years of profit declines. Mad...people who load up now will be handsomely rewarded IMO. And you get a business whose prospects are asymmetrically related to wider economy/market...and one which is on the verge of giving news that the entire business model is going from good to 'unbelievable' with 8-10 car manufacturers to pursue over the next several years and the housing division balloons.

[shbgetreal] 05/4/2023 15:20

You could sell if unimpressed? I am currently struggling to get buy orders filled.

[p1nkfish] 05/4/2023 08:23

Delivery needed not just blather.

[carcosa] 05/4/2023 06:23

WHI Ireland (Nominated Adviser and Joint Broker) note yesterday included the following:

"The group’s vehicle emissions cases potentially offer a high return on investment which is not captured in our forecasts and, although updates on the progress of the VW case were notable in their absence today, we continue to expect a positive result in the coming months"


Carcosa

[eezymunny] 04/4/2023 19:09

Debt fell in last 6 months gusrezo...

[p1nkfish] 04/4/2023 17:07

Market none too chuffed, want to see some addressing of the overhanging debt.

[gusrezo] 04/4/2023 10:37

revenues up, but debt up.Quite frustrating. If Anexo is reducing activity in vehicle hire, that ties more working capital, and betting on house disrepair, with shorter time settlement and no payments upfront to garages or vehicle providers, where is the money going? The point with the company is not the pending resolution of the VW case, it's a one-off; it's the lack of real cash flow in the recurring business.

[lumpsucker1] 04/4/2023 08:27

VW Case must be in out of court settlement phase imho. This would mean both sides subject to confidentiality agreement. Literally all we would hear is when the two sides have agreed settlement. Even when it is settled then the actual amount won't be declared. You would have to pick through the accounts to see in what region that figure would have been. The signs are that this case is not being contested so with Mercedes to come afterwards then i'm happy to hold and buy on weakness.

[pedigree_scum] 04/4/2023 08:09

Why not say that the VW case is still ongoing. Especially at is potentially significant for Anexo. Makes me concerned.

[rivaldo] 04/4/2023 08:05

I agree the earlier comment - as regards VW no news is good news. Assuming the case is approaching its endgame then ANX would not be allowed to say anything, and probably would not want to. Happy to sit and wait for likely good news imho.

[pedigree_scum] 04/4/2023 07:33

Concerned that no comment on VW case. Is it still live or not happening

[hpcg] 04/4/2023 07:15

The working capital requirement is the weakness in the business model as it makes growth the opposite of self funding. These businesses are difficult to analyse, just like banks and litigation funders. The success of the housing line is a big plus, and unlike the vehicles where some object to the hire rates (though of course they incorporate lending and risk costs) there is a strong moral case for going after slum landlords. The market is clearly waiting for a VW settlement.

[rivaldo] 04/4/2023 06:35

Agreed, as long as PBT comes out at the top of the projected range, as nearer the lower £24m would be a fair miss. Given that the year end was over three months ago it seems to have taken a long time to only arrive at a relatively wide range of PBT expectations?

The business as a whole seems to be performing well, with all divisions performing soundly. And net debt is slightly better than expectations.

The news of the Mercedes case is encouraging and could provide a second major windfall on top of VW, which is mooted to settle soon.

With say 17p-18p EPS ANX looks very good value at these levels, even with the debt which is forecast to begin declining from here as housing disrepair revenue share increases and the focus on cash collection bears fruit.

[rimau1] 04/4/2023 06:13

I’m pleased/relieved with the update given the price action recently. I forgive the very slight miss on pbt (£26.3m consensus?). Net debt seems to have peaked so on a downwards trajectory number of vehicles on hire reduces again which makes sense whilst the housing and legal divisions are firing on all cylinders. New class action to bubble away in the background whilst no word on VW i think is a positive, no comment because we are so close? Anyway value this excluding one off windfalls and the buy case is still strong. With net debt peaking and eps should be around 18p if we come in at £26m. 6x is a bargain for me and i will probably add today.

[balcony] 03/4/2023 12:38

carcosa-Thank you. Anyway we will get a update on things.

[carcosa] 03/4/2023 12:35

Results are not due for a while. There is however a pre-close trading update, to be released on 4 April 2023

[balcony] 03/4/2023 08:30

Well results tomorrow, lets see what the forward looking statement says.