Anexo Share Discussion Threads

[hpcg] 18/7/2022 15:36

carcosa - yes, any friction in the repair or replace market should help with credit hire days. Higher costs will make hire(!) costs seem less egregious. More people driving without insurance and having accidents should keep the actionable events stack topped up. I'm actually more interested in the housing element where I can see the potential for enormous growth and a much bigger TAM.

[p1nkfish] 18/7/2022 14:23

VW news can't be too far off.

[carcosa] 18/7/2022 11:54

hxxps://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/news/shares/direct-line-shares-skid-to-five-year-low-amid-surging-claims-inflation

So both Direct Line and Sabre reporting profit warnings due to higher claims inflation. Sabre estimates that claims inflation is currently running at 12% compared with high single digits at the end of 2021.

Presumably this provides an opposite effect for Anexo as it translates into higher turnover for the company? Is that reasonable?

[hpcg] 06/7/2022 11:14

The question for every investor is how does this do in a recession and I suspect the answer is OK. So I'm going to build a larger position here.

[shbgetreal] 06/7/2022 10:57

While there is of course potential to go lower if the market slides again, the prospects of this well-run company and savvy management (who do not just know their industry, but have a reassuring lack of bombast seen in some of their competitors) - let alone the VW case and those that may follow - makes current share price levels almost risible.

Investors (and private bidders) can only ignore solid cashflows and a strong market position for so long...

[rivaldo] 06/7/2022 10:34

Good to see the share price bouncing somewhat. Perhaps a seller has been cleared.

As well as the WH Ireland note above, Arden also issued an update after the trading statement, with a 300p target price.

They forecast 18.8p EPS this rising, to 20.8p EPS next year, with 1.6p and 1.8p dividends.

And Progressive Equity's new note forecasts 19.6p EPS rising to 21.9p EPS (with 1.5p and 1.6p dividends).

[rimau1] 27/6/2022 07:19

Dbay have just lost out in a 2 way bidding war for Caretech so at these hugely depressed levels i would not be surprised if they come back with another offer.

[rivaldo] 21/6/2022 11:51

WH Ireland issued an update note yesterday commenting on how the upcoming Housing Disrepair Bill is a "major opportunity" for ANX.

They have a 263p target price, and forecast 19.3p EPS this year - a P/E of just 6.6:

Extracts:

"Housing Disrepair – White Paper highlights major opportunity for ANX

We view last week’s White Paper as underlining again the significant opportunity for ANX’s Housing Disrepair business, which started operations last year and has already enjoyed notable success, as reflected in last Thursday’s AGM update. The White Paper is a harbinger of the much-touted Housing Reform Bill, announced in the May 2022 Queen’s Speech, having been delayed by the pandemic. Given its well-established pedigree in litigating on behalf of the impecunious, ANX is extremely well positioned to support tenants in recovering their rights when faced with disrepair issues such as damp, electrical hazards, roof leaks, and unstable structures. While accepting that the course of legislation is always uncertain as an act progresses through Parliament, we view this bill as starkly highlighting the problems facing hundreds of thousands of tenants – problems for which ANX can already provide redress as tenants become more aware of their rights."

"More than this, we believe the Bill will serve a fundamental purpose in alerting tenants to their existing as well as proposed new rights, and on both of these scores, this is supportive of ANX’s model, since it is likely to bring more claimants to them, given the base ANX has already established in the claims litigation market."

"Strong FY21 results and FY22E off to a good start Strong results on May 11th saw FY21A sales up 36% YoY, at £118.2m, and adj. operating profit of £27.7m, 48.1% ahead YoY. The company also saw its best ever level of vehicles on the road in Q4 2021 – and last week’s update shows that FY2022E got off to a good start with numbers strong in the first four months. With good momentum on both sides of the business in the current year, we are encouraged by recent progress. With a 263p target price, we believe the shares have a lot further to run and see current levels as a buying opportunity. We also note the recent VW / Therium settlement – LFL, we believe this implies a potential cash injection of as much as £20-25m for ANX, with further significant potential in Mercedes and other emissions scandal opportunities."

[hpcg] 16/6/2022 08:52

The housing disrepair element is going very well. Slum landlords are minded to settle when they come up against a well funded legal firm and not some poor sap that has 2 pennies to rub together. This whole paragraph reads well:

Within the Group's Legal Services division, Bond Turner, cash collections for the first four months of FY-2022 are in line with management forecasts and are 24% ahead of those seen in the corresponding period in FY-2021. The Housing Disrepair division is also performing in line with management forecasts. The number of cases acquired from inception until the end of April stands at around 3,300, some 950 of which have been settled. The Board expects the number of settlements to accelerate as the year progresses

[rivaldo] 16/6/2022 08:15

Progressive Equity have now issued an update note - their forecasts are even better than Arden's, being 19.6p EPS this year, rising to 21.9p EPS next year.

That's a P/E of 6.4 falling to 5.7. Plus the VW and Mercedes payouts to come in.

Enough said.

[rimau1] 16/6/2022 07:33

Yes, happy with that. I feared the worst when i saw the price action last night and then an RNS this morning. Veiled profit warnings are on the increase so this is a very welcome update.

[rivaldo] 16/6/2022 07:17

An encouraging AGM statement today.

ANX are trading nicely in line with expectations, i.e 18.8p EPS (with a 1.6p dividend).

That puts ANX on a current year P/E of just 6.7, with EPS forecast to rise to 20.8p EPS next year - and that omits any payout from the VW and Mercedes cases.

All divisions are trading well. I note that the new Housing Disrepair division has more thn doubled the number of its cases in just the last four months since the last year end to 3,300:

[rivaldo] 07/6/2022 08:13

ANX were the first company tipped by the IC's Simon Thompson last night in his Bargain Shares small cap update.

Nice reaction already on relatively small buying hopefully indicates a lack of available stock.

[rivaldo] 01/6/2022 08:20

Cheers carcosa, NDB sounding very bullish there.

I note ANX are also presenting via webinar for Shares Magazine on June 15th - free registration here:

[carcosa] 30/5/2022 11:52

Nick Dashwood Brown of Anexo discusses their strong final results and the VW emissions case; published 27th May 2022

[rivaldo] 30/5/2022 10:15

Great indicative result from the first Dieselgate claim - can't be long before ANX's claim is settled too. Then it's on to Mercedes Benz....

The upside here is shown by Arden's raising their target price to 300p (from 280p).

They have 18.8p EPS forecast for this year, rising to 20.8p EPS next year. That's a forward P/E of just 6.2.

Plus there's a 1.6p dividend, rising to 1.8p.

[p1nkfish] 26/5/2022 11:17

So 1.5x-2x what the claimant receives goes to ANX?
They make out like bandits compared to the claimant.
Sounds too good to be true.
Expected upside but not that much.

[carcosa] 26/5/2022 10:52

Read the Arden report. Part of it is payment of legal costs.

[p1nkfish] 26/5/2022 10:48

How does that square with about £2100 per claimant?
£193M over 91K cases??

[carcosa] 26/5/2022 10:31

Latest note today from House Broker Arden...

"... We would expect VW to settle with Anexo on similar terms, in due course.

...with the company receiving 50% of the compensation to the claimant plus legal costs. All-in we think this could be worth £3-4k per claim to Anexo, or £39-52mn in total. This would result in an estimated £20-25mn to the business pre-tax after £4mn of admin (largely marketing) costs and repaying litigation funding.


.. (Mercedes) It wouldn’t be unrealistic to expect a similar outcome here in 2024, as with the expected VW settlement, in our view...

As we wrote recently, there is a lot to get excited about. Opportunities within the Credit Hire business have never been so strong, the Housing Disrepair business could print £7-8mn in revenue this year, while the Group moves on from VW to Mercedes Benz in earnest, with marketing to source claims started this week. We have raised our numbers +1.6% in FY22 and by +3.5% in FY23, with the Price Target raised from 280p to 300p. "

That's one heck of an estimate for the VW case and given it's from the house broker then I guess you have to believe it!(?)

[p1nkfish] 26/5/2022 07:27

Price may well reverse today, total payout to ANX customers is a bit of a side-show at 13K claimants.

[carcosa] 26/5/2022 07:03

Oh well, have to wait a bit longer then....

RNS:
"Anexo is involved in a separate class action which covers a second, although not subordinate tranche of claims against VW on similar grounds"

[p1nkfish] 25/5/2022 22:16

£193M and........

"The company will also make a separate contribution to cover claimants' legal costs and other fees, meaning each driver will receive just over £2,000 in total."

About £2120 each.

Sets a precedent for Merc.