Anexo Share Discussion Threads

[rimau1] 11/5/2022 13:13

P1nkfish - Dbay failed with their Caretech bid so they are actively on the look-out

[p1nkfish] 11/5/2022 12:44

Some holdings I gert attached to, ANX is not one of them.
If it is to go private then the sooner the better imho.

[rimau1] 11/5/2022 12:16

I’m a big fan of Dbay, its one of the reasons that i am invested here. LDG is a listed investment company run on its behalf by Dbay, literally a cash shell having sold Stobart last year. NAV of 19p of which 18p is cash and you can buy the stock for 13.3p! I imagine if an offer comes for Anexco it would be via LDG.

[p1nkfish] 11/5/2022 12:06

see posts from abut this time last year.

[p1nkfish] 11/5/2022 12:06

They already have 29%.
Much more and a bid needed.

[hpcg] 11/5/2022 12:04

I would think 200p would do it, and that seems a bit of a reach. No one is taking 150p and 170p would not attract much interest either. 180p also seems shy give recent price history, but is quite a hike from today. One would think they would be best taking out sellers at this level first.

[p1nkfish] 11/5/2022 11:46

150p paid by DBAY 12 months or so ago.

[rivaldo] 11/5/2022 11:45

Here's Progressive Equity's summary FYI:



"FY22E – Our revenue forecast is increased by 5% to £132.4m, reflecting the benefits of investment made in FY21 across all businesses. The expenses forecast is increased by 8% to £60.7m, reflecting a higher FY21 cost base and continued investment in FY22. As a result, operating profit and adjusted operating profit are increased by 7% to £32.1m and £32.8m, respectively. Profit before tax and adjusted profit before tax (before share-based payments) are broadly unchanged, reflecting increased finance costs, attributable to the levels of net debt discussed above.

Reported and adjusted EPS are maintained at 19.1p and 19.7p, respectively.

FY23E – New estimates for 2023 assume an 9% revenue increase and 4% administrative
expenses growth, resulting in 15% operating profit and adjusted operating profit growth compared with FY22. Higher finance costs attributable to higher net debt levels slightly temper profit before tax (reported and adjusted) growth rates to 13% in FY23. We forecast reported and adjusted EPS of 21.7p and 22.3p, respectively, 13% above FY22."

[p1nkfish] 11/5/2022 11:42

DBAY currently digesting CareTech. Very surprised if they don't take action here sometime as they could pick it up for a song vs target prices banded about.

[p1nkfish] 11/5/2022 11:09

Lot of stock for sale about 129.5p.

[p1nkfish] 11/5/2022 10:58

DBAY bid for PHD and share ownership, I suspect the writing is on the wall here.

[hpcg] 11/5/2022 09:18

The existing directorial positions of the new DBAY board appointments is a little aide memoir of taken over companies: Stobart and Tellit. I wouldn't be averse to a cheeky bid while markets are weak. Not too cheeky mind.

I actually liked their conservative and targeted stance to vehicles on the road and thus working capital management. It's the housing stream that interests me; going after slum landlords is an indisputable good. Good to see analysts have increased forecasts.

[rivaldo] 11/5/2022 09:10

Arden today reiterate their Buy and 280p target price.

They see 18.3p EPS this year and 20.1p EPS next year, with 1.6p and 1.8p dividends.

They summarise:

"Stronger than expected results:

Trading was robust last year, with FY21 group revenues +36.2% to £118.2mn. Anexo had guided in January that pre-tax profits would significantly exceed market expectations and adj. PBT of £24.1mn for the full year was +49.7% y/y, broadly in line with our revised forecast. This was even after significant investment across the group, which together with a favourable market backdrop, under-pins our FY22 forecasts, with an upward bias to FY23. Finally, we continue to expect Volkswagen AG to negotiate a settlement before the scheduled court hearing in January 2023. Reiterate Buy."

[rivaldo] 11/5/2022 07:48

Progressive have today increased their operating profit forecast for 2022 by 7%.

They also now have an EPS forecast of 19.7p EPS for this year, rising to 22.3p EPS next year.

Indeed rimau1, whenever DBAY have such a large stake in a company - here they own 28.51% - it usually results in a bid. The previous offer was plainly not enough, so hopefully they'll be back.

Arden's last target price was 280p, so still a long way to go.

[rimau1] 11/5/2022 07:37

Thanks Riv. I particularly like the countercyclical nature of ANX. Whatever happens in 2022/23 business will boom and they have deployed (excess) capital at a great time. The speculative side of me also wonders if DBAY will make a move given they recently missed out on Caretech and now have 2 board members elected.

[rivaldo] 11/5/2022 07:25

Results are out and look excellent, being in line with previously upgraded forecasts.

The 16.8p EPS is bang in line with Progressive's forecasts, as is the £23.8m reported PBT. The 1.5p divi is slightly less than the 1.7p forecast, which I assume is due to the increased debt in turn resulting from the big investment in the various new and old divisions which took advantage of competitors' problems during Covid.

The outlook is confident, supported by the KPI's re cars on the road, number of fee earners etc, and targeting improved working capital with efficiencies in numbers of vehicles.

The VW Dieselgate case may well conclude this year bringing in a big lump sum, and it's good to see ANX initiating a similar case against Mercedes-Benz.

The forecast for this year is for 19.2p EPS, which makes ANX look absurdly good value.

EDIT - snap rimau1, agreed!

[rimau1] 11/5/2022 07:22

Those results and outlook statement read well to me. A few stand-outs - VW court case date set for Jan 2023 so expect a financial settlement prior to this. Mercedes Benz Emissions Case has begun. Turner Pope 43% rise in fee earners will positively impact 2022 whilst the MCE insurance contract that started only in November 2021 generated 500 claims by year-end. Expect analyst upgrades.

[rimau1] 10/5/2022 09:11

Pre results top up for me. Caught up in the general market melt down i think we have fallen too far. As ever, outlook statement will be key

[km18] 04/5/2022 12:01

Anexo Group plc is involved in the provision of legal services and integrated credit hire to clients associated with non-fault accident in the UK. The firm generated more case settlements, leading to higher cash collection, which in turn is used to contribute towards further investment. As a result, the corporation has adopted an aggressive working capital policy, where cash and dividends are retained for further investments with the purpose of optimising organic growth, shown by relatively low dividend yield of 1.78%. This corporate strategy was effectively incorporated into the current EPS growth of 14.3%, which in turn led to an attractive EV/EBITDA of 7.03x, capturing intrinsic value. Despite the plausible financial prospects, the firm is still undervalued, illustrated by the low P/E of 7.3x, which is below the consumer discretionary P/E of 32.1x, thus the security is expected to surge.



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[hpcg] 27/4/2022 20:04

Same RNS, though different incoming NomAds, for Sutton Harbour, Onedine.

[carcosa] 27/4/2022 17:30

Because it's an administration issue and quite minor in the overall scheme of things.
Although some keyboard warriors would like it to be an issue.

[leoinvestoruk] 27/4/2022 16:27

Just wondered why you guys are (edit: were) not worried about Arden not being a Nomad any more and therefore potential suspension?

[santangello] 08/4/2022 15:44

Well done Rivaldo, good work :)

[tole] 08/4/2022 14:15

Always on the ball ;)

[rivaldo] 08/4/2022 11:53

Arden have released a replacement research note. They retain their 280p target price and 19.3p EPS forecast this year - a P/E of just 7.1.

Their original research note yesterday had bugs/errors in it which made the 2022 numbers ludicrous - I contacted Arden (no-one there had noticed it) and they've evidently taken note and corrected it.

You can download the note here for free with registration, but I feel entitled to copy it here since I'm partly responsible for it!



"Buy
Target Price: 280p

Trading Statement – Improvement and Opportunity

Continuing improvement –

Anexo has released a pre-close statement ahead of final 2021 results on 11 May 2022. With current trading in line with management’s expectations, recovery in Bond Turner and industry dislocation playing to Anexo’s strategy and capabilities, we believe the group has re-entered a strong growth trajectory which will deliver excellent shareholder returns over time. Reiterate buy.

Increasing focus on quality in credit hire – the successful launch of the MCE referral contract in November 2021 provides Anexo with the scope to be more targeted in the cases it takes on, driving more efficient use of capital and higher margins and should enable quicker recycling of funding through the business. In our view, the market has yet to fully understand the positive impact of this on Anexo.

Legal processing accelerating – The re-opening of the court system supports accelerating cash collections at Bond Turner for reinvestment in credit hire and housing disrepair. Cash collections have been rising and reflect the substantial capability Anexo has built in its legal settlement capacity. In Housing Disrepair, growth remains strong and will further benefit from marketing through 2022.

Further growth funding secured – Anexo has secured further debt funding for growth, which combined with more efficient capital use and faster cash collections, provides excellent headroom for the Group to continue to expand across its various business lines. The MCE contract provides validation of the Group’s strategy and market position and gives visibility of a referral stream to provide lenders comfort over the growth potential in the business and demonstrates the demand from lenders to put capital to work in Anexo’s business.

Investment thesis and valuation - We have argued for over a year that Anexo was in prime position to take significant share in credit hire and become an integral part of the insurance claims processing industry. With strong momentum across all businesses, we swee further share gains and likely upward pressure to our 2022 forecasts. At only 7.1x 2022E P/E on our forecasts, the shares are excellent value in our view considering the market position of the Group. Buy."