Anexo Share Discussion Threads

[trendz1] 22/8/2023 07:28

The debt has reduced significantly. The beauty is that the company believe they can simply ‘pull levers’ to increase cash collection from the huge receivables. A self fulfilling endeavour, as debt reduction reduces financing costs. I suspect the market was anticipating a much worse set of numbers and outlook. Looking forward to the next few weeks here.

[scepticalinvestor] 22/8/2023 07:25

And yet this is at all time lows...

[scepticalinvestor] 22/8/2023 07:21

Impressive

[trendz1] 22/8/2023 07:10

My favourite part “Strong growth is forecast for H2 2023 resulting from a steady increase in vehicle numbers”.

[bri15] 22/8/2023 07:08

Yes t1 it is looking like we are extremely undervalued :⁠-⁠)

[trendz1] 22/8/2023 07:06

Woosh - good update. How the company is valued at £73m I’ll never know. Great to see cash collection increasing and debt falling fast. Surely a material rerate over the next few weeks.

[p1nkfish] 21/8/2023 20:50

Interesting to observe. Today's volume and price action don't suggest much, granted its August.

[timmythedog] 21/8/2023 18:41

WH Ireland are saying 25 before tax - 18 plus VW - so your after tax figure might be a bit optimistic

[bri15] 21/8/2023 18:19

Nice £10.54K buy at 16.20,must be someone in the know, excited for the morning now as believe we in for pleasant surprise.

[scepticalinvestor] 20/8/2023 15:35

Will be interesting to see what happens on Tues

[trendz1] 14/8/2023 21:08

Hi all,

Looking at the accounts, my best estimate for the interims is:

1. H1 profit after tax - £14.2m (circa £7m from core business and £7.2m from the VW settlement (as announced)
2. Full year profit after tax guidance - £24 (ANX is usually H2 weighted)
3. Debt reduction of circa £10m to £63m
4. Low single digit revenue growth
5. FY 24 profit maybe £18-25m? plus likely emissions settlement?

Wit the continued strategy of cash generation from the huge receivables and debt repayment, I would hope that the market will at least provide a 2023 p/e of at least 5-6. This would mean a roughly £120 to £145m.

Current market cap of £73m.

Could potentially be looking at 100% gain in short order.

Of course, all my own thoughts.

Bon chance

[scepticalinvestor] 14/8/2023 13:02

Looking very frisky today

[scepticalinvestor] 14/8/2023 09:55

Someone is confident - GBP120k purchase just gone through

[scepticalinvestor] 11/8/2023 17:47

Thanks for sharing, v interesting

[p1nkfish] 11/8/2023 15:32

One upside might be any use of AI to increase productivity if such tools exist yet for their markets and if they can adopt them. Its just such businesses that could see substantial headcount reductions for the same output.


Keep an eye on Sapiens as possible picks & shovels in the overall type of space -

[p1nkfish] 11/8/2023 15:21

Also suspicious the £600 per claimant is on the low side if VW saw ANEXOs financials and ANEXO needed a settlement. Going near the boundaries of covenants and needing to divulge you have had waivers isn't a very healthy position.

Secure Trust are a supportive bank, fortunately.

"This agreement avoids the need for protracted litigation and the substantial legal costs that would have been incurred by both parties had the matter progressed to trial."

[p1nkfish] 11/8/2023 15:10

I'm lacking confidence in the management.

[p1nkfish] 11/8/2023 15:09

VW will add just short of £7.2M cash, about £600 per claimant. If used on debt would bring it down about £66M.

I can see a trade potential here, largely dependent on wording of their results, but returns look likely via paying down debt, improving ratios and balance sheet and not via payouts.

Keeping an eye on it again. Some key levels nearby that might attract some scanners when they trigger upwards through them to attract buys and does looked bombed out. More upside than down but curious as to the timeline for 40%.

[scepticalinvestor] 11/8/2023 14:53

NAV is triple the current mkt cap.Debt is likely to drop down to mid 50m after VWThis indeed is a punt but i can only see immense upside from here

[p1nkfish] 11/8/2023 14:31

What is your timeline for the 40% upside SI?

£73M net debt and stated cash generation focus needed to address debt load, in the results. STB look to benefit. External hire CFO stepping down and replaced by an internal looks strange.

A trade perhaps but an investment? 40%, OK, but when?

"Each of the Group's banking arrangements are subject to monitoring through financial performance measures or covenants. During the year, certain of these measures and covenants within the Secure Trust facility came under pressure and required action by the Group which included a regular dialogue between all parties to ensure that the reasons behind the breaches were fully understood, agreed and ultimately waived."

[scepticalinvestor] 11/8/2023 14:13

Interesting - bght at 59.34p this am and now being offered 59.4p to sell

[scepticalinvestor] 11/8/2023 12:46

Well just bght inCan see at least a 40% upturn here

[scepticalinvestor] 07/8/2023 08:15

Methinks the lady doth protest too much

[p1nkfish] 06/8/2023 12:02

Just a shame CFO decided to jump. Decidedly not a good indicator in this instance.

[scepticalinvestor] 06/8/2023 11:38

Book value ps of 124p makes this interesting