Anexo Share Discussion Threads

[p1nkfish] 25/5/2022 19:01

Likely a shift in price tomorrow looking at those late trades. I was going to buy more expecting there to be some time before anything happened but missed the boat.

[p1nkfish] 25/5/2022 19:00

Mercedes will give another, possibly bigger, boost.
Housing will help too.

From what I read VW does not admit liability. It was their software, who else could be liable?

[gusrezo] 25/5/2022 18:48

don't forget that there's some funding from a private equity, so Anexo will have to pay back that money + agreed profit for the PE. Anyway this is a "one-off" and if they get 10-15p per share, it's about a 10% of the current price; what it's going to move the needle in the medium/long term is the improvement in the cash flow of the recurrent credit hire business, which I think is the concern with the company, once the lawyers and the courts clear the heap of pending cases.

[eezymunny] 25/5/2022 16:58

"somewhere between a third and a half of the payout will go to the law firm" say MSE

[...]

That would yield something in the 9-14m range, plus some legal costs. No doubt we'll get some clarification.

[rimau1] 25/5/2022 16:32

Analysts have pencilled in £16m operating profit to Anexo on a successful VW settlement/outcome. Investment costs of £4.5m. Importantly this also sets a precedent for the Mercedes Benz case which analysts expect to be twice the size of the VW case. Hopefully a clarifying announcement from the company tomorrow.

[carcosa] 25/5/2022 16:16

Edited...

RNS Dated 22/Dec/2021

"In the US, individual settlements included a number of options and the compensation packages were set at various levels depending on the age and model of vehicle involved, with the sums ranging from US$5,100 (£4,150) to over US$40,000 (£32,520). In Germany, there was a similar range of options depending on the age and model of the vehicle involved, and the sums ranged from €1,350 to €6,257 (£1,190 to £5,540). In Australia, the settlement sums varied from AU$1,589 to AU$6,554 (£800 to £3,290)"

In the press announcements today it was quoted as £193m for 91,000 claimants which equates to £2100 per claimant.

Anexo previously indicated RNS dated 11/May/2022 about 13000 cases were on Bond Turner's books.

So that's a total of £27.3m and a certain percentage of which goes to Anexo. So how much is the percentage? According to hxxps://www.bondturner.com/services/diesel-emissions-claims/vw-emissions/ the percentage is 50% (is that right??)

Additionally Bond Turner should get all it's legal costs back but am not sure if that would also include marketing. At a guess perhaps legal costs are in the order of £400k?

So I think I would reasonably expect around £14m exceptional pre-tax 'profit' or around an additional 50% in forecast profits.

[hpcg] 25/5/2022 16:04

Only heard on the news just now, but it looks like it only came out right before trading finished. Its helpful to say the least and much earlier than anticipated.

[tole] 25/5/2022 15:47

From the resultsBond Turner is acting on behalf of a number of individuals who have registered claims against VW and is currently actively engaged on approximately 13,000 cases. The marketing campaign has been largely conducted via social media channels as well as via the use of internal customer records with all marketing costs being written off as incurred.The Board believes that, in the event of a settlement, the percentage of potential damages and associated costs accruing to Anexo would have a significant positive impact on the Group's expectations for profits and cash flow for the relevant accounting period. There is no certainty that a settlement in favour of Bond Turner's clients will be reached, nor is there any guarantee that such a settlement would include financial compensation. The timeline for progress towards a potential settlement is also unclear and no assumptions as to revenue have been included in the Board's internal forecasts for 2022.

[tole] 25/5/2022 15:44

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/cars/article-10853783/amp/Volkswagen-reaches-193m-settlement-UK-owners-Dieselgate.html

[alex_mc] 25/5/2022 15:43

VW news:

Guess that was the end of day bump up. Any views?

[hsduk101] 25/5/2022 15:25

Bit a rise at the end of the day. Quite a few buys.

Also is the next statement out on 16th June or is that just an AGM meeting

[p1nkfish] 25/5/2022 15:24

Same here, glad to see it perk up but was contemplating adding, oh well.

[tjb23] 25/5/2022 15:10

Just waiting for the takeover bid now IMHO

[pedigree_scum] 13/5/2022 08:19

Thanks :) Hoping this starts to turn when the markets settle down. Will be interesting to see if the VW case gets settled what impact that has...

[p1nkfish] 13/5/2022 07:49

A great handle pedigree, brings a smile to my face every time I see it.
I kind of identify with it.

[pedigree_scum] 13/5/2022 06:52

Shame the market sell off drove this down yesterday but does provide an opportunity to add some more

[rivaldo] 13/5/2022 06:19

Cheers rimau1, reads very well and shows the excellent value and upside here.

[rimau1] 11/5/2022 18:41

ST this evening. Reads well.
“following a robust pre-close trading update in January, Panmure Gordon pushed through 11 per cent plus earnings per share (EPS) upgrades for the 2021 to 2023 forecast period. More importantly, the strong momentum shows no sign of abating. In fact, chairman Alan Sellers says the opportunities within the group’s credit hire division “have never been so strong”, and that’s after the average number of vehicles out for hire increased by a fifth to 1,834 last year. Currently, around 2,000 vehicles in the fleet are being hired out.

The withdrawal of several competitors from the market and the introduction of the Civil Liabilities Act, which severely curtails the ability of personal injury solicitors to recover substantial legal costs, has certainly played into Anexo’s hands. Moreover, by offering both credit hire and legal services, Anexo is exploiting a competitive advantage over pure credit hire companies (who lack the in-house capacity to litigate a customer’s claim), and solicitors (who lack a vehicle fleet to offer to motorists).
True, a decline in road usage during national lockdowns still had an impact, but less so on Anexo given that a large number of credit hire customers are classed as key workers, including couriers (who have been extremely active throughout the pandemic) as well as health professionals, teachers, nursery staff, emergency workers and supermarket personnel. In fact, despite the lockdown in the first half of 2021, Anexo’s credit hire division provided vehicles to 10,625 individuals, a 36 per cent year-on-year increase.

The group’s focus on motorcycle credit hire is worth noting, too. That’s because take-on costs are significantly less than for cars, but claims have a similar value, a positive for the working capital cycle and return on investment. Statistics show that motorcyclists are particularly vulnerable to personal injury in non-fault accidents. Investment in new cases explains why year-end net debt increased by half to £63mn, or two times current year operating profit estimates, despite cash collections rising by a fifth to £119mn.
Interestingly, Anexo has been tapping new income streams, having invested £1.7mn in 2,000 cases last year for tenants making claims against landlords under The Homes (Fitness for Human Habitation) Act 2019. The Act came into force to make sure that rented houses and flats are fit for human habitation. The unit delivered a tenth (£2.5mn) of group pre-tax profit, having settled a quarter of those cases with 1,500 still ongoing. Investment in new housing claims will be doubled this year, a sensible decision given the bumper profits to be made and the short working capital cycle to settlement.
Anexo is also starting to actively source claims against Mercedes Benz in relation to the German group’s emission scandal. Sellers says that the market could be double that of VW, another positive for windfall gains. Analysts expect Anexo’s claim against German carmaker Volkswagen on behalf of 13,000 motorists (who suffered in the emissions scandal) to reach settlement well before the year-end. Anexo could potentially earn £16mn of operating profit when these cases are settled, a hefty return on its £4.5mn investment to date. This is not embedded in Panmure’s current year forecasts which point to group pre-tax profit and earnings per share (EPS) rising a fifth to £29mn and 19.9p, respectively, on six per cent higher revenue of £125mn. Post results, the brokerage also raised their 2023 EPS forecast again by a further 10 per cent to 22.6p.

On this basis, the shares are rated on a current year forward price/earnings (PE) ratio of 6.5, offer a prospective dividend yield of 1.4 per cent and are priced in line with year-end net tangible asset estimates of 129p a share. A cash windfall from settlement of the VW claims would not only deleverage Anexo’s balance sheet, but is an obvious catalyst for an overdue re-rating. Buy

[pedigree_scum] 11/5/2022 15:46

Updated tip from ST in Investors Chronicle. Confirms the value on offer

[rivaldo] 11/5/2022 13:06

DBAY own 28.51% of ANX, and were recently happy to offer 150p per share - and ANX's prospects have only improved significantly since then.

A cautious and highly successful investor like DBAY would not be so heavily involved here if they didn't have complete trust in management.

I've seen ANX present. They're pragmatic and realistic - certainly far removed from the likes of Quindell. You just have to look at their RNSs to see the differences in style.

The business and cash flow model, including the high receivables, will not suit all. But for the rest of us ANX is worth a place in one's portfolio imo.

[dvb99] 11/5/2022 12:40

Biggest concern for me is cash collection and receivables, which seem v large in relation to turnover.
While insurance claims take time to settle, still seems large.
tbh reminds me a bit of Quindell a few years back, on the surface looks very good, but dig a bit deeper and ..????

[p1nkfish] 11/5/2022 12:37

rimau, not over there yet. Deadline extended to 30th May.
If they do lose to the other bunch I expect it's game on here, I'm often wrong though.

[rimau1] 11/5/2022 12:13

P1nkfish - Dbay failed with their Caretech bid so they are actively on the look-out