Amryt Pharma Share Discussion Threads

[papillon] 23/9/2017 21:36

Well I agree, waterloo. AMYT is a STONKING BUY at the current price, IMO. Unfortunately the general market doesn't agree going by the AMYT Mkt Cap. That could change of course. Fingers crossed!

[waterloo01] 23/9/2017 14:18

Amryt Pharma – placing disappointment, my anger as a shareholder, CEO chat - BUY

[papillon] 22/9/2017 17:48

Congemi
Posts: 289
Off Topic
Opinion: No Opinion
Price: 22.00
Episalvan Today 16:45 I'm wondering if the market size is so big why hasn't another pharma company invested in the secondary.Something does not add up here.

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The Brain of Britain is at it again! I know what doesn't add up, Congemi; your thought processes!

Until last week there were 2 players going for this 1.3bn Euro market and one has now dropped out and it was the player in the lead and with the most dosh, leaving just AMYT. Until last week 2 players seemed about right for the size of the market, chances of success and the financial outlay necessary to develop and pass the regulatory hurdles. It's now a bit LATE for another entrant because AMYT has such a lead and any new entrant would need to pass phase 1, 2 & 3. It would take years, by which time Episalvan could (big IF) have the market already sown up.

PS. There is no doubt in my mind that the placing process (approaching institutional and other investors) was started some time ago; possibly before the interim results were issued and was why the share price drifted down towards 20p.
After all why would anyone approached to take part in a placing at 20p buy in the market at a higher price? The temptation would be to sell, or short, if you were a holder, or non holder, and were approached to take part (not saying anyone did! LOL).
Whenever the placing process was ongoing I'd bet money it was before we received the news that Amicus were aborting the Zorblisa phase 3 trial. Did that news come out of the blue to AMYT as well as us ignorant PI's? I reckon it did!
I wonder if AMYT had known that Zorblisa was dead in the water they would have arranged this placing at this particular time? I've got my doubts about that; I reckon they might have waited to see if the share price was going to rise on the Zorblisa news and hence got the placing away at a higher price in the future.

PPS. It looked likely, prior to the Zorblisa news last week, that Zorblisa, being in front of Episalvan, would get a far bigger slice of that 1.3bn Euro cake than Episalvan. It now looks like Episalvan will have that 1.3bn Euro cake all to itself if it proves to be an effective treatment for EB (big IF). To me that should signal a big re-rating of the AMYT share price However, as always, what I think is immaterial; it's what other investors think that's important. I do think, however, that the penny will soon drop and we will soon see a much higher share price in the short term (say, within next few months).

[greendragon777] 22/9/2017 14:41

I think someone needs to do him a favour and liquidate his shares for him....he'll sleep better at night as a result! 😁

It would be hilarious if he dumped all his shares about a week before a takeover bid came in! 😂😂😂

[papillon] 22/9/2017 13:57

Unfortunately, greendragon, Congemi is as thick as two short planks.

He posts this today:

"I want to know why if Episalvan has a potential €1.3 billion market and its main competitor has blown up why is the company trading at a 45 million market cap?Someone is lying!
and thats not including Lujuxta revenues.
I think that is a valid question and makes me question what the BOD are really doing!"

What Congemi is completely ignoring is the fact that Episalvan is NOT YET PROVEN as a remedy for EB. It's like an O&G being currently valued at, say £50m, even though it's about to drill an exploration well that if successful could make the company worth £500m. The reason why that O&G is only valued at £50m is because they haven't yet found the oil and they may not find it. The same applies to AMYT with Episalvan; it's not yet proven as an effective remedy for EB and may not be.

Also the company IS NOT valued at £45m. That's the current Mkt Cap, but Congemi hasn't included the extra shares being issued due to the 15m Euro placing AND THE 20m Euro EIB loan!! At the current share price the REAL value of AMYT is closer to £75m!!

So we have a company currently valued at £75m (that EIB loan has to be repaid) and with current revenue from Lojuxta of just circa 11.5m Euro's and a cream, Episalvan, that MAY, OR MAY NOT, prove efficacious for treating EB with a potential annual 1.3bn Euro market.

I think the only one lying is Congemi; either that or he's got very little between his ears! Probably the latter. Someone needs to question Congemi's thought processes!

[papillon] 22/9/2017 12:34

He did indeed, greendragon. He predicted that the share price was going back to 14p just before the interim results were issued on the 4th.

I don't mind his posts; one needs to read an opposing opinion, but why he continues to hold AMYT if he REALLY believes the share price is going below 20p and has such a negative opinion of the company and it's prospects beggars belief. He should sell. I know I would if I held his opinions.

[greendragon777] 22/9/2017 12:13

Didn't that guy Congemi also 'predict' that the share price was gonna hit 14p a while back? I've seen a few of his posts over there and it's beggars believe why he doesn't bail out his position on AMYT never to return. Why get involved in something you practically despise, I just don't get it!

Sorry to hear about you back Paps, there's nothing worse. Hopefully it'll get better in time or with some treatment.

[papillon] 22/9/2017 11:45

There's an IDIOT who posts on the lse bb called Congemi. He thinks he can predict the future! Let's see if he is proves to be correct this time, or proves to be the whinging Wally he appears to be! LOL. "well under .20 by" Oct 9th. LOL. He's ignoring the fact that the placing at 20p was oversubscribed! LOL.

Congemi
Posts: 284
Off Topic
Opinion: No Opinion
Price: 22.00
Shareholder meeting Oct 9th Today 08:53 Im betting we will be well under .20 by then.

[papillon] 21/9/2017 23:40

I'm suffering from a lack of sleep at the moment (due to a bout of painful sciatica), bwd, so I think I will play that Joe Wiley interview (many thanks for providing the link); it might get me off to sleep! Probably better than counting sheep and less harmful to my liver than resorting to alcohol! LOL.

[bigwavedave] 21/9/2017 23:20

I haven't listened to it (yet) but an interview with Joe Wiley about the placing is here:

[papillon] 21/9/2017 21:40

The share price was lower than todays closing price less than 3 weeks ago, pottermagic2310. Unfortunately almost all AIM natural resource explorers and biotechs return over and over again to the market to raise cash via placings, pottermagic. It's the name of the game, unfortunately, when you lack a revenue stream (or big enough revenue stream in AMYT's case) to fund their ongoing exploration (for a natural resource explorer), or fund phase 1, 2, or 3 trials (for a biotech).

Do you live in the real world, pottermagic? AMYT have only had this one placing since flotation. I can name any number of AIM companies with a lot more placings to their name!! Placings and hence dilution are an occupational hazard if you invest on AIM. You must have been extremely lucky if you have never been invested in an AIM company where a placing and hence dilution occurs with a resultant drop in the share price on the news.

Let's be realistic; if Lojuxta sales don't live up to expectations and AP101 is not efficacious in treating EB skin conditions then today wont be the last AMYT placing and they wont be anywhere near as high as 20p! Look at VAL for an example of a biotech disaster zone. Even if Lojuxta does live up to expectations and AP101 proves to be successful then AMYT could still raise money via a placing, but it would be at a much higher price than 20p!!

PS. Why do you have to average down, pottermagic? The share price has only dropped by less than 15% today. Will it drift lower? No idea! I topped up when the share price was circa 22p and also 3 weeks ago when it was circa 20p so I have no need to top up. Today's placing is a set back, but in the scheme of things not a disaster. It hasn't changed my opinion of AMYT's future prospects. AMYT is a good gamble IMO, but a gamble none the less. Hope for the best, but fear the worst. That way you wont gamble more than you can afford to lose!

[pottermagic2310] 21/9/2017 21:01

Still... 25% dilution is still a kick in the nuts.
Got to either suck it up or average down with whatever low now occurs - sub 20p ??

[tightfist] 21/9/2017 19:12

Waterloo,I too like the sound of the forward-looking view - investing in enablers to progress AP101 sales on a successful Phase 3 outcome. However, I do wish there was an update on the enrolment of the EB sufferers into that trial.Cheers, tightfist

[papillon] 21/9/2017 18:15

"CEO Joe Wiley will feel the impact of share dilution more than I will"

It wont dilute his salary though will it, diamondstar? LOL.

Obviously Cathal Friel will feel the adverse effects of the circa 15% decline in the sp, but the dilution in itself is not material; the only material aspect of a placing is what impact it has on the share price short term. I don't worry about dilution either apart from any adverse effect it has on the share price

I would have liked to have seen the placing done at more than 20p, but I've no doubt that the share price will soon recover and go higher now that funding is sorted. No use crying over spilt milk. Future funding was a Sword of Damocles hanging over the share price That's now gone.

Buying AMYT shares is a GAMBLE, IMO, but a GOOD one. Not for widows and orphans though and don't bet money you can't afford to lose.

[speccy1] 21/9/2017 18:10

I share your miffed-ness with today's placing - just as we had some momentum and visible paper profit, this has (temporarily) wiped it out.

I do however remain positive - and even more positive when I read the throw-away line in the RNS:

"As we develop the business further, we will consider additional in-licensing opportunities, as well as acquisitions or investments in other promising assets."

Much easier to swoop on an opportunity when you have a gigantic pile of cash ;)

[waterloo01] 21/9/2017 18:09

If the company hit their Lojuxta sales targets, which they look likely to beat, it still leaves AP101 virtually un-valued and in the light of the Amicus deal, and recent failure, plainly undervalues the company as it leads toward the pivotal interim readout.

[diamondstar1] 21/9/2017 17:38

Hi Paps, I agree with you here. Yes - they probably had enough money to last them till Q3, when the full EASE PhIII results were available. However, what happens in the unlikely event (35% chance in my estimation) that the results from EASE are negative? Amryt would have extreme difficulty raising further funding at that stage. My guess is this - that they will use some of the 15 million Euro as backup reserves, and some of it to strengthen their pipeline. For example, they need to bring their other compound AP102 (for acromegaly/cushing's disease) to Phase III as soon as possible. This is risk diversification - putting their eggs in several baskets. This was seen with Amicus, whereby portfolio diversification prevented their share price from crashing despite Zorblisa failure. Sure, as a private investor, being diluted in not great. But I can rest assured that the board of directors eg, CEO Joe Wiley will feel the impact of share dilution more than I will. Imagine owning 10% of Amryt shares (worth over £4 million) and being diluted by 25%. Overall, my conclusion is this - that Amryt senior management, though not perfect in the way they raised the 15 million euro capital, are doing this in the best interest of Amryt's future as a biopharmaceutical company.

[papillon] 21/9/2017 17:36

"The statement along with todays RNS says it all.

"We are delighted with the support we have received, both from new and existing investors, for this oversubscribed placing, which has raised EUR15.0 million, equivalent to GBP13.3 million, and significantly widened our shareholder base.""

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Precisely, waterloo! What it says to me is "Mates Rates" LOL. And if I'd have seen it coming (and I should of because I've been posting recently that the chart wasn't reflecting the good news being issued by AMYT recently) I would have sold a few days ago and bought back in. However no good crying over spilt milk. Hopefully the share price will soon start reflecting that good news now that the funding issue is out of the way. The "Mates" who were asked to take part in the placing DEFINITELY now know the funding issue is sorted, so perhaps those who didn't get the number of shares they asked for in the oversubscribed placing will start to buy in the market once the placing has been done and dusted?

[papillon] 21/9/2017 17:21

If the longer term AMYT chart turns negative, IMO, greendragon, I will sell as I believe details of the AP101 trial will leak before the initial trial results data is issued.

[waterloo01] 21/9/2017 17:19

I'm a relatively new investor in AMYT and continue to like what I see, placing aside. The share price reached a low of 13.5p in Dec 16, and while it climbed recently from 20p (where it was for awhile) and above as it got tipped and Amicus failed, the 20p raising doesn't seem so bad. I think you have to see beyond the initial 'shock' and at least take comfort that until the EB readout, another placing is highly unlikely.

No one likes getting diluted, but it's no bad idea to have taken advantage of the share price rise and a reasonable result if you look at the 200 day average

The fact that Amicus paid $229m upfront in a $847m deal in 2015 gives me some comfort as this was invested (thrown away) when their drug was at an earlier stage to where AMRYT are now.

The statement along with todays RNS says it all.

"We are delighted with the support we have received, both from new and existing investors, for this oversubscribed placing, which has raised EUR15.0 million, equivalent to GBP13.3 million, and significantly widened our shareholder base.

"We are at an exciting stage with AP101, our treatment for EB, a rare and distressing skin disorder which causes exceptionally fragile skin. Our Phase III clinical trial for AP101 is ongoing, with an interim read out due in H1 2018. In anticipation of its successful outcome and subsequent approval, this new money will contribute to funding the pre-launch costs and the expansion of our manufacturing capacity in readiness for the commercial launch of the treatment.

"The funds will also support our continuing investment in Lojuxta, a drug we in-licenced in December 2016, which is used to treat HoFH, a rare and life-threatening cholesterol disorder. We remain very positive about expanding Lojuxta's sales, which were EUR5.75 million in the first half of 2017. In addition, as we reported previously, its existing commercial infrastructure can be used to support other products.

[papillon] 21/9/2017 17:08

I don't tip shares, greendragon and definitely NOT AIM listed shares as most fail to live up to initial expectations (especially true of AIM listed biotechs), however it could prove to be a clever ploy by AMYT to raise cash now at 20p. As you say who can say what the markets will be like next year. A bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush, especially as the bush maybe in a very poor condition next year following on from when the initial AP101 results are issued? After all, like Amicus's Zorblisa, AP101 may not prove to be efficacious when treating the skin of EB sufferers!!!!

Perhaps AMYT are hedging their bets and getting their money now rather then chancing to next year following the AP101 trial results.

PS. Warren Buffet wouldn't invest in a start up like AMYT; he goes for large established companies (such as Coca Cola & Gillette) with good quality earnings and very undervalued assets.

PPS. I'm still holding because I think AMYT is an excellent GAMBLE at the current share price It has excellent future prospects, but no one can DEFINITELY predict the future.

[greendragon777] 21/9/2017 16:57

I don't know folks am I reading this wrong or is the share price holding up extremely well considering a 25% dilution? If it holds at current levels I will be very happy.

With regards to holding off until next year for the placing, the directors will be looked upon as absolute heros if the stock markets took a turn and all companies similar to AMYT get completely locked out of the markets for funding!

I think if you take a long term view on AMYT there is so much upside and I wouldn't be trying to trade a 10% or 20% gain here and thee when there is a possible (and looking increasingly likely) uplift in the '00s and maybe even the '000s of percent! :-)

A quick remeinder of those words of wisdom from Warren Buffett himself....."The stock market is an efficient place where money is transferred from the impatient to the patient" :-)

Hold onto your AMYT shares for dear life folks or forever hold your peace! haha

[papillon] 21/9/2017 16:56

No, spuddymadrid. I haven't any spare cash at the moment and anyway I'm not losing money with the share price at 21.75p. I'm not worried about there being more shares in issue since I'm not under the water with the share price at 21.75p. Anyway I topped up at a lower price at the end of August. Though if I did have a spare £1k I would buy now. 22p seems an attractive price bearing in mind the funding is now sorted and the favourable prospects for both Lojuxta and AP101.

Hopefully we might get some American buying as I've a shrewd idea that influential American investors already knew this placing was on the way when the recent New York presentation was made! Certain big investors would have known about this placing at 20p some time ago since the broker arranging the placing would have approached them with a view to their taking part.