Amryt Pharma Share Discussion Threads

[curnic1] 19/11/2017 11:17

MIDAS SHARE TIPS: Amryt Pharma makes remedies that can save lives - and cheer savers
By Joanne Hart for The Mail on Sunday
PUBLISHED: 09:21 AEDT, 19 November 2017 | UPDATED: 09:21 AEDT, e-
High cholesterol normally afflicts people in their 50s and above, often because they eat the wrong food and take too little exercise. In some cases, however, children are born with exceptionally high cholesterol, so much so that they are at risk from heart attacks and strokes before they even start school.
The condition, known as HoFH, is rare, affecting about one in a million people, but those who are affected are not expected to survive into adulthood if they are left untreated. Even with treatment their life expectancy is about 45.
The standard treatment for HoFH involves being strapped to a machine for hours every fortnight, much like dialysis. But there is an alternative – a simple capsule, called Lojuxta sold by Aim-listed Amryt Pharma. Lojuxta is licensed for adults and may be licensed for children.

Helping hand: Amryt Pharma is developing a treatment for a rare condition that it hopes will be licensed for children
Amryt is a drugs firm with a difference. It focuses on treatments for rare and ‘orphan’ diseases, that is, conditions that affect fewer than one in 2,000 people. The shares are 17¾p and deserve to be far higher.
Amryt is chaired by Harry Stratford, who set up Shire in 1986, a drugs firm now valued at £33billion. Stratford also set up ProStrakan, a pharmaceutical firm sold to the Japanese for nearly £300million back in 2011.
Amryt was founded four years later, in August 2015. Though a fairly new firm, it has crossed some important milestones.
Many young biotech firms struggle as they focus on a single drug and take years to bring it to market. From the start Amryt spread its net wider.
It does not spend time and money discovering new drugs. Instead, it acquires products that are either in trials or approved by regulators. The group then develops these products into fully-fledged medicines and sells them to those in need.
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Today, there is a growing need for effective drugs to treat orphan diseases. The number of people affected may be small but there are about 7,000 such conditions and large pharmaceutical firms have historically paid scant attention to them.
Thousands of conditions go untreated, sufferers are desperate for help and global orphan drug sales are expected to reach more than £150billion over the next five years. It is easier to gain regulatory approval for orphan drugs too, so treatments move from development to commercial sales much faster than conventional medicines.
Amryt’s team is impressive. Not only is it chaired by a veteran of the industry, but chief executive Joe Wiley has spent 20 years in the healthcare and private equity sectors, having trained as a neurologist.
The finance director, commercial officer, chief medical officer, head of medical affairs and head of licensing have worked for an average of 20 years each in healthcare, both here and in the US, the largest drugs market by far. They are bringing this experience to bear, using their networks to find suitable acquisitions and take drugs from clever ideas to commercial sale.
In the case of Lojuxta, Amryt acquired the licence to sell it in Europe and the Middle East from a US firm, Aegerion Pharmaceuticals. Amryt’s chief medical officer knew Lojuxta well as he held the same position at Aegerion years ago.
The deal was signed in December 2016, Lojuxta is on track to deliver sales this year of €11.5million (£10.3million – most sales are in euros) and the market is valued at up to €100million a year. Only last week, Amryt signed a deal to sell Lojuxta in Saudi Arabia, the Middle East’s largest drugs market. The group is talking to the NHS about supplying Lojuxta here too.
Amryt is also in late-stage trials with a treatment for Epidermolysis Bullosa, a rare, distressing and painful genetic condition, where the skin is so fragile that those affected suffer constantly from blisters and burns, caused by acts as mundane as pulling on socks or shaking hands. There are about 35,000 sufferers in Europe and 30,000 in the US. Amryt is developing a gel to treat it.
Trial results are expected next year but early signs are encouraging and, if the treatment is approved, the market is valued at over £1billion.
Amryt is also working on treatments for Acromegaly and Cushing’s disease, which affect growth and stress hormones. Treatments are at an early stage but the combined market opportunity is estimated at £800million. In the meantime, Stratford, Wiley and the team are pursuing other deals, so new additions to the portfolio should be forthcoming soon.
In September, the company raised £13million via a share placement at 20p. That fundraising means the group now has plenty of money to increase Lojuxta sales, bring drugs to the market and look for new opportunities.
Midas verdict: Amryt listed in April 2016. So far, the group has done everything it said it would and more. Yet the shares have underperformed. At 17¾p, they are a buy.

[opodio] 19/11/2017 10:12

I wouldn’t buy that chart

Cash call soon enough

[pugugly] 19/11/2017 10:09

twt_ mos ususally produces MM markup and or short term (often) spike -

A selling opportunity ? or is consenus that the coy is worth £48m (Mail MV not advfn avfn fundamentals wrong again !!! so what is new ??)

Chance of success ? Board impressive or are they over the top ??

[papillon] 17/11/2017 17:52

Oh well, back to sleep after this week's temporary excitement.

[papillon] 15/11/2017 13:39

I think today's fall, pottermagic2310, is still due to the Hot Stock Rockets sell recommendation yesterday. I think it's possible we'll see a further fall when ShareProphets gets around to mentioning that HSR sell tip.

Will the AMYT share price fall to 14p? No idea! I've given up trying to predict the AMYT share price Currently AMYT has a Mkt Cap of £48m. If the share price continues to fall then investors must think that £48m overvalues AMYT in the short term. A complete fantasy like UKOG has a current Mkt Cap of £168m. AMYT is NOT a fantasy. The stock market is irrational!

[pottermagic2310] 15/11/2017 13:22

Definitely expect a continuous lull into mid Q1 next year as Trials continue and with an expectation of constrained Revenue from Lojuxta.

If it does dip to 14p again, take a 50:50 chance on good news from the Trial and benefit from the potential spike that presents itself by April.

These things are fairly predictable, based on the known Business Plan that we know is unfolding.
Any other Events surfacing over that 4 months are most unpredictable, along with any +ve or -ve impact they may have on the Business's valuation.

[papillon] 15/11/2017 12:32

Bronxville
Posts: 24
Off Topic
Opinion: No Opinion
Price: 17.75
RE: Papillion on another forum Today 11:18 Your talking tripe..
Investors were thin on the ground (management not getting positive word out)so Software AG had to support the secondary!
Cut and paste this..
Papillion is a pompous azz🐎

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LOL. "Pompous"? I don't think so. I admit to being an "ass"; with the benefit of hindsight I should have sold all my AMYT shares back in the summer @ the high of circa 27p (like Jacksonpollack). I would have turned a very significant paper profit at the time into CASH! Of course you couldn't do that Bronxville because you paid the equivalent of over 30p for your shares; you would have made a loss selling at 27p!

[bigwavedave] 14/11/2017 23:39

I think volatility will be the norm for a while, pap. I'm not too bothered. It can spike to 26 just as easily and quickly as it can drop to 14, 15p (although I don't think it will go that far this time). Good for traders.

[papillon] 14/11/2017 23:08

Based on Software AG's share holding when AMYT listed (circa 43.5m) and their share holding after the recent placing (circa 61.3m as per RNS dated 11/10/17) it looks like they bought almost 18m shares in the recent placing! The BoD bought around 900k of shares. A cynic would say that it was better for Software AG to buy at 20p per share than 25p per share. A cynic could also say that it would be preferable for Software AG to buy a further 18m of shares now @ 20p per share rather than after next year's AP101 interim trial results when the AMYT share price could be a lot, lot, higher than 20p! A cynic would say the same argument could apply to the BoD's 900k of shares bought @ 20p per share. Of course I'm not a cynic! LOL.

[bigwavedave] 14/11/2017 21:58

Meanwhile:

[papillon] 14/11/2017 21:31

Bronxville
Posts: 23
Off Topic
Opinion: No Opinion
Price: 18.125
Papillion on another forum Today 17:41 Thinks management are doing a bang up job
Papillion you do realise this company has barely ever traded above it reverse merger price coming up on 2 years.
Your not too bright are ya🤡

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LOL. You say you need an share price over 30p to break even, Bronxville (you're an ex FAST holder). I DON'T (and I'm an ex FAST holder)! I'd say that means you're the one who's NOT TOO BRIGHT! LOL. LOL.

Bronxville, you must understand that AMYT has a Mkt Cap of £50m. That's not bad going for a speculative AIM stock. It's a jam tomorrow company (hopefully!).

The following PROVES the management are doing a good job:

1/ They managed to raise money at 24p on the back of the prospects for a speculative treatment (AP101) before it entered phase 3 trials following on from the RTO.

2/ They managed to arrange a 20m Euro loan from the prestigious European Investment Bank (EIB).

3/ They managed to arrange a licensing deal (Lojuxta) that was IMMEDIATELY cash generative!!!!!! They are successfully marketing Lojuxta and increasing the revenue it generates.

4/ They are now fully funded for the AP101 trials after the recent placing (though it would have been nicer if they could have delayed that placing until 2018).

That proves that management are doing a good job, Bronxville. However all that good news doesn't appear to have whet the appetites of investors yet (apart from those who took part in the placing). We'll just have to be patient and wait for news on the AP101 trials.

The management has been trying hard to increase investor awareness of AMYT, if the number of presentations it stages are anything to go by; however those presentations appear to be falling on deaf ears.

You should have sold, Bronxville. You've obviously got no patience!!

PS. Yes it would have been nicer if the recent placing went through at 25p instead of 20p, but it definitely benefitted AMYT's largest shareholder, Software AG, if I'm being cynical. They took a large chunk of that placing and I'm sure 20p was more to their liking than 25p! Every cloud has a silver lining and 20p was definitely a silver lining for Software AG!!

[greendragon777] 14/11/2017 19:06

Interesting but he's not gonna look too good if/when this bad boy goes pop sometime next year!

Patience pays! 😁

[papillon] 14/11/2017 17:32

RE, TW's Hot Shot Rockets sell tip, bigwavedave. A post on the lse bb gives a reason for the sell tip:

twrchtrwyth
Posts: 81
Off Topic
Opinion: No Opinion
Price: 18.125
RE: Boiler Room Newsletter Today 14:59 This 'sell' recommendation is on one of his websites that focus on short term gains - hence the recommendation, (after the recent discounted placing, this one isn't clearly going to fly in these next few weeks). In fairness though, he does say that shareholders with patience could do very well out of AMYT.

[papillon] 14/11/2017 17:16

Bronxville seems to be suffering from a dose of Donald Trump irrationality because after his BEARISH "Management are a disgrace" post his next post today, just less than 2 hours later, is a BULLISH one!!

Bronxville
Posts: 21
Off Topic
Opinion: No Opinion
Price: 18.125
Saudi inter marriage Today 16:48 Boom time for Lujuxta..More patients in 1 hospital in Saudi Arabia than the whole of England

[...]

EDIT. advfn wont show the link that Bronxville posted. If you want to see what got Bronxville so excited you'll have to visit the lse AMYT bb.

[papillon] 14/11/2017 16:54

Bronxville
Posts: 21
Off Topic
Opinion: No Opinion
Price: 18.125
RE: Slide Today 15:12 Management are a disgrace...
I have never seen so many rookie mistakes starting with the share price drop from .24 in the original reverse merger.Not to mention blatently misleading shareholders on companies valuation.
Ineptitude!!

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LOL. LOL. Bronxville is the disgrace! Management are doing their job. The share price is dictated by short term traders!

The job of management is to open up new markets for Lojuxta and progress the trials for AP101 & AP102. They seem to be doing that. Investors, especially short term traders, dictate the share price!!!!!!!!!!

Obviously the recent placing was bad news for the AMYT share price in the short term. Why the BoD decided that the time was right to raise more cash is open to question. I don't think it affects AMYT prospects in the medium & longer term; Lojuxta sales and the trial results will determine the AMYT share price in the medium & longer term.

[papillon] 14/11/2017 14:43

I agree, bigwavedave. You are spot on buddy! TW's HotShotRockets/ShareProphets site endlessly RAMPED AMYT. However the recent placing caught him (and the rest of us!!) by surprise. He seems to have taken the placing news very badly. It's probably cost him money because he obviously had a large holding in AMYT bought at a higher price (he did say he was an indirect holder via a family trust fund). He seems, to me, by saying sell to be cutting off his nose to spite his face! TW reminds me a lot of Donald Trump (he's an avowed Trump fan) in that he can very quickly lose his temper and consequently act irrationally.

If the share price does drop to 14p, pottermagic2310, I will break my maximum 20k share holding promise and have a further top up. However I don't believe the share price will drop to 14p. I suspect either 18p, or 17p, will act as support. That's what the long term chart in the header is suggesting to me. However I have no crystal ball, so we shall see. Today looks to be a very good time to have a top up, but I could be wrong!

[bigwavedave] 14/11/2017 14:02

TW is bonkers. I don't have to read his blog to know it will be based on sour grapes after his breathless ramping of AMYT failed to take it to his target price. But he has his followers, many of whom, unfortunately, will now be selling at a loss. I still hold.

[pottermagic2310] 14/11/2017 13:10

My 'master' plan right now is to continue to hold what I have, awaiting end of Q1 2018 and possibly buy some more at any significant Lows on the way there... 14p looks appetising

[papillon] 14/11/2017 11:53

That is obviously the reason for today's drop on large volume, 2vdm. Does TW's Hot Stock Rockets give a reason for the sell advice? TIA.

[waterloo01] 14/11/2017 11:51

Does he say why?