Amryt Pharma Share Discussion Threads

[charlie_munger1] 03/11/2020 08:51

I watched it again last night and it seemed like it's up to the bondholder as to when they want to convert the bond to shares? The CFO reckons the bondholders will probably wait until the share price goes up 30, 40, 50% to convert the bonds to shares. So will this not mean that there will be an extra $125 million worth of extra shares at some stage? Although if the share price goes up say 30% then it will help soften the dilution blow for us other investors?

[alphabravo321] 03/11/2020 08:40

You should watch the Proactive forum from last week, CFO explained it well

[charlie_munger1] 03/11/2020 08:39

Okay, thanks for that. Apologies, I genuinely forgot I asked about this before. I see the part in the RNS where it says that it's up to the company as to whether they pay the CVR's in cash or stock, that's crystal clear now. In regards to the convertible debt, is there any RNS links explaining it? I tried Googling it, but I don't understand how it works. In terms of converting the bonds to stock. Sorry for being a pest, it's just that all of these terms are new to me, but I'm getting there lol.

[papillon] 02/11/2020 23:48

Read the section on the CVR's in this RNS, charlie_munger1.

[papillon] 02/11/2020 23:40

"Can the CVR holders decide whether to receive cash or stocks if the Filsuvez milestones are met?"

You've asked that question before, charlie_munger1 and I said the answer NO. It's entirely up to the company whether they pay out any money on the CVR's in cash, or in shares

"Also, am I right in saying that all of the $125 million worth of convertible bonds could be converted to stocks at any time now?"

The answer to that question, which you have asked before, is still NO.

For God's sake do read the RNS's issued by the company on the CVR's last year, charlie_munger1. Those RNS's are readily available on advfn. Just access on NEWS at the top of this page.

[charlie_munger1] 02/11/2020 21:48

Can the CVR holders decide whether to receive cash or stocks if the Filsuvez milestones are met?

Also, am I right in saying that all of the $125 million worth of convertible bonds could be converted to stocks at any time now? The market cap is around $420 million currently, hypothetically if all of the $125 million of convertible bonds were traded in for shares now then would the share price would be diluted by around 30%? I acknowledge the odds of all of the bonds being converted at once is highly unlikely.

[charlie_munger1] 02/11/2020 21:24

Thanks bageo.

[bazworth] 02/11/2020 19:28

Hopefully we should see some magic within the next twelve months!!

[bermudashorts] 02/11/2020 18:48

Also, don't forget the Priority Review Voucher that comes with FDA approval.

[diamondstar1] 02/11/2020 16:12

Filsuvez = Episalvan. Look for projected sales for Episalvan.

[charlie_munger1] 02/11/2020 15:58

diamondstar1 Is there any direct reference to Filsuvez in previous presentations? Or do you mean look at Amryt's other drugs to give me an idea what Filsuvez's price could potentially be?

[charlie_munger1] 02/11/2020 15:44

Great answer, thanks

[diamondstar1] 02/11/2020 15:38

Nice boost on Nasdaq- up 4.3% to 13.4. For the first time, Nasdaq price is higher than LSE!

[diamondstar1] 02/11/2020 15:28

Filsuvez should be the first drug on the market for EB; there are no other companies who have reported their Ph3 results in EB. Regulatory approval process (FDA, EMEA) should take about 1 year. Once they get marketing authorisation, I believe they will target market launch as soon as possible, without wasting time. They already have a sales force in North America & EU, given that they are already selling 2 marketed products in these regions. For projected sales for Filsuvez - do look at their old presentations; this should give you an idea of assumptions with regards to drug pricing and cost per patient.

[charlie_munger1] 02/11/2020 15:20

Okay, thanks diamondstar1. Does a company typically release their potential drug pricing before approval? So if Filsuvez gets approval and it's the only treatment on the market then they're flying. It will take a year to get approval then another year to get it on the market? I also acknowledge that other companies may come up with a more efficient treatment that passed their trials in the meantime?

[diamondstar1] 02/11/2020 14:59

Yes, that is exactly what I’m saying. Amryt at the beginning of the EASE trial included all 3 EB subtypes:- DEB, JEB, and EBS. When they got hold of the Amicus data, they realised that EBS (Epidermolysis Bullosa Simplex) patients were poor responders (or data was highly variable). EBS is the most common form of EB (~70%), but disease burden is usually the least (vs. DEB/JEB). They then modified the protocol eligibility criteria to only include DEB and JEB. If Amryt had not modified the eligibility criteria based on Amicus data, it is likely they would have not met the Primary Endpoint, and we would have a failed study.

We now know from the final results that the DEB patients had fantastic efficacy in Primary Endpoint of 17.8% (placebo-adjusted). Regulators will typically approve when they see a favourable efficacy/safety profile - which I believe is very clear in the DEB population.

[alphabravo321] 02/11/2020 14:45

No real obvious impact of EADV as of yet on Nasdaq

[charlie_munger1] 02/11/2020 14:10

So even though approximately 500,000 people have it worldwide, it's looking like Filsuvez (assuming it gets approved) will probably only be recommended to people with Dystrophic EB? Which is approximately 125,000 people. I understand you can't say for sure, I'm just curious as to your opinion. Thanks

[diamondstar1] 02/11/2020 14:06

On a global level, 500,000 x 25/100 = 125,000 patients.

[charlie_munger1] 02/11/2020 13:42

For just treatment for DEB patients? What I'm getting at is, how many people do we think that this drug will be recommended for in the US and the EU? Amryt reckon that 30,000 people have EB in America and 500,000 people worldwide. How many people will these drug be an approved product for I wonder?

[diamondstar1] 02/11/2020 13:21

DEB patients constitute about 25% of total EB patients; JEB 5%. However, the disease burden of DEB patients is very high; they use much more economic resources compared to JEB or even EBS (Epidermolysis Bullosa Simplex) patients.

Placebo-adjusted efficacy is now 17.8% in the recessive DEB patient group. The trade off is the potential loss of the JEB subgroup, but overall the probability of a positive Regulatory (FDA, EMEA) outcome has improved, in my opinion.

[charlie_munger1] 02/11/2020 12:33

What percentage of EB patients have Dystrophic EB approximately?

[diamondstar1] 02/11/2020 12:07

Thanks for sharing charlie_munger1.

This article is basically saying that the main patient population in EASE was the Dystrophic EB (80%) vs Junctional EB (20%). Efficacy was basically fantastic in the DEB patients, but not statistically significant in JEB patients.

For a Regulatory perspective, I believe this strengthens the likelihood of marketing authorisation in EB patients with DEB. They will likely get a label for use in DEB patients in US and EU, in my personal opinion, based on this data.