Amryt Pharma Share Discussion Threads

[sidam] 09/9/2020 14:31

My take from the presentation, which I hope helps. Existing products going well.

Trial met primary end point and heals wounds quickly. Still some information to come in on secondary end points. All Patients on trial carried on with use after trial end so care providers love it! Can be used every 1, 2, 3 or 4 days which is a huge plus as changing wound dressings is very nasty and extremely painful.

Marketing submission to US and EU by end of Q1 2021 and hopefully approval by year end. Marketing would then start in Q1 2022. Sales infrastructure in place so incremental costs should be low. My numbers suggest that each $100m of revenues at 10 times incremental profit (ignoring amortisation of trial costs) equates with additional value of 200p per share. My understanding is that management’s internal target is $500m of revenues which equals £10 eventually.

Still risks, if small, on regulatory approval and no real revenues for 18 months. I am not selling anywhere near this price. Now my largest holding.

Hope this helps.

[papillon] 09/9/2020 13:45

Well, charlie_munger1, the price on Nasdaq has opened lower than that on AIM, hence the current drop in the price on AIM. One would expect the price on AIM to settle down to roughly equal that on Nasdaq otherwise there is a chance for speculators to sell on one market and buy back the shares cheaper on the other if there is a big enough price difference.

[charlie_munger1] 09/9/2020 13:36

Can someone explain to me how the price on the Nasdaq and the price on the AIM market works in relation to each other? I know that every 1 ADR is worth 5 of the common stock, then you factor in the exchange rate. What happens to the Nasdaq ADR price. if the stock on the AIM market goes up or down and vice versa?

[papillon] 09/9/2020 13:29

Nasdaq pre market quote now up to US$14.97. It's going in the right direction!

[papillon] 09/9/2020 13:21

Many thanks Bermudashorts and diamondstar for your knowledgeable postings on this bb. I'm sure I speak for many when I say how grateful we are for your insight.

PS. Pre market quote is currently US$13.55 on Nasdaq on a small number of tiny trades. Let's hope that that price rises sharply when Nasdaq officially opens and we see some big buys. Nasdaq price needs to be circa US$16.20 to match the current price on AIM.

[diamondstar1] 09/9/2020 13:02

Wow - P=0.013 for Primary Endpoint. This is very highly statistically significant. Not a borderline case; chances of Regulatory (FDA, EMEA) approvals are pretty good! Good job - Joe Wiley and team!

[waterloo01] 09/9/2020 10:52

50% up in a day and still going, is non too shabby.

[diamondstar1] 09/9/2020 09:28

My near term price target of 250-300p is getting close. If EMEA and FDA Marketing Authorization is obtained - my share price target will be ~400p. All the best shareholders!

[diamondstar1] 09/9/2020 08:50

Regarding the conditions for the CVR:-
If FDA approval is obtained - the revenue target of $75m by Jun-24 will be relatively easy. These 2 criteria really go hand-in-hand. The EU approval can be considered the low hanging fruit, as EMEA has approved Episalvan for healing of partial thickness wounds.

[papillon] 09/9/2020 08:33

Currently TOP of advfn's leader board of biggest percentage gainers!! Can't be bad!!

[digadee] 09/9/2020 08:21

Nasdaq has some catching up to do

[dlm2602] 09/9/2020 07:52

CVR's payout as follows:

Payouts: FDA approval 45p, EMA approval 20p, Sales of AP101 > $75m by Jun-24 45p

So a total of £1.10 per share if all conditions met.

[filterwest] 09/9/2020 07:51

Excellent news. Been here since 7 years again with Fastnet.

[ultrasharp] 09/9/2020 07:49

Great news.
ATB PAPILLON

PS I've also been here from the days FAST was a cash shell and Cathal Friel was looking for a suitable RTO.

[timbo003] 09/9/2020 07:41

That was a pleasant surprise

The price rise seems about right to me, given the dilutive effect from the increasingly valuable CVRs.

Slightly disappointed they didn't make it for the secondaries, but the prospects of getting approvals now seem greatly enhanced and if Amryt get FDA approval it should come with a valuable (and tradable) Rare Pediatric Disease Priority Review Voucher.

Now looking forward to tuning into the presentation at 13:30
[phone]

[bumpa33] 09/9/2020 07:40

Spoke to both Berenberg and Shore Cap pre mkt on these. SCAP said the news was ‘game changing’ and predicted 40% on the share price today. They have been bidding large (150k) since the open. I took the trade this morning, could be a lot more to go though. Good luck.

[alphabravo321] 09/9/2020 07:28

With regard to the CVAs, there are a number of criteria that need to be met in order for them to be issued, the criteria relate to approval and sales targets, they are all laid out in Aegerion admission doc

[deanmatlazin] 09/9/2020 07:27

No competitor!!!! Lovely.

[volsung] 09/9/2020 07:26

What happens to the CVAs now?

[deanmatlazin] 09/9/2020 07:25

EB is a rare, chronic and distressing genetic skin disorder that causes the skin layers and internal body linings to separate and affects infants, children and adults. The global incidence of EB is estimated to be approximately 1 in 20,000, which implies that there are as many as 30,000 affected individuals in the US and over 500,000 worldwide. There are currently no approved treatments. The global market opportunity for EB is estimated by the Company to be in excess of $1.0 billion.

[bazworth] 09/9/2020 07:24

Just telling my wife the Fastnet story - hadn’t realised it been that long ago!

[alphabravo321] 09/9/2020 07:22

I have been here for 6 years since Fastnet!

[diamondstar1] 09/9/2020 07:20

Well, I got my wish for more news. Congrats everyone on the good news today - especially those who have been longstanding Amryt supporters!