Amryt Pharma Share Discussion Threads

[papillon] 03/9/2019 10:53

If AMYT buck the abysmal trend of AIM biotechs I will very pleased, diamondstar. I 'm hopeful they will; I'm backing Ray Stafford & Joe Wiley. Only time will tell whether I'm right, or wrong.

You only have to look at the share price performance of FARN, IMM, N4P, SAR and VAL over the years, to name, but a few of a very, very, long list of abysmal long term share price biotech performers to realise that if AMYT come good then they will be an exception. I'd guess that well over 90% of AIM biotechs turn out to be fantasises that lose their long term investors a lot money. In the past I remember high fliers like British Biotech and Xenova, to name, but two who failed to deliver and disappeared without trace.

I don't need to read the posts of over optimistic fantasists like, positivityNicholas. It's my money. I'll make my own mind up.

[papillon] 03/9/2019 10:02

I have had positivityNicholas on filter for ages, diamondstar. I must have high hopes for AMYT in the future because I would have sold my shares when they relisted last week if I hadn't. I can't predict the future. None of us can. I don't believe in blind faith. I'm NO Walter Mitty fantasist. Fingers crossed as always.

[positivitynicholas] 03/9/2019 09:18

Fair comment

[diamondstar1] 03/9/2019 08:52

To be fair positivityNicholas - papillon has gotten more positive over the years - maybe some of your ‘positivity217; has rubbed off on him? With regards to his muttering - who has a crystal ball and knows exactly what will happen to Amryt SP? I certainly have been entertained reading what he has to say. Not always in agreement with his views, but everyone has their right to provide their thoughts here.

[positivitynicholas] 03/9/2019 07:41

Papillon you are the most annoying self important person on any board I have read. You invest pennies in a share then spout about day after day just repeating rubbish that you have read. A self indulgent boring person who has nothing else to do.
You change your mind about Amrit on a daily basis depending on which way the wind is blowing .... why? Cos you actually have not got a clue

[papillon] 02/9/2019 22:13

No it couldn't have been, alphabravo, because the London Stock Exchange official site had today's low as 100p and the closing price @ 106.5p the same as the opening price, so it couldn't have been an ADVFN blip.

It's good that price is holding up though.

[alphabravo321] 02/9/2019 17:15

I think it was an ADVFN blip, the Bid/Ask were upside down

[papillon] 02/9/2019 17:07

And it bounced back up to close level

[papillon] 02/9/2019 14:01

Down we go!

[alphabravo321] 01/9/2019 08:52

https://www.businesspost.ie/business/dublin-drug-companys-value-set-top-e280-million-wake-us-acquisition-451267

[papillon] 31/8/2019 22:37

I looked at the AMYT web site, mdalos and saw Admission Document 27.08.2019 PART I, PART 11 and PART 111. I did open them and saw the number of pages involved and decided that if I've a week to waste I'd read all of them! :-)

[papillon] 31/8/2019 20:56

mdalos1
31 Aug '19 - 18:36 - 4785 of 4785
0 0 0
EUREKA !!

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I'm trying to imagine you, mdalos, jumping out of your bath and running down the street stark naked shouting EUREKA, EUREKA!! LOL.

So I've finally cracked the conundrum have I, mdalos? I always get there in the end even if it's by a circuitous route.

[papillon] 31/8/2019 13:44

webpsx. I must admit to being confused by yesterday's holding RNS concerning Amati's shareholding.

The previous holdings RNS concerning Amati was issued on the 9/5/2018 and gave their shareholding as 8,500,000 shares (3.09% of shares then in issue). That 8,500,000 shares became 1,416,667 after the 1 for 6 consolidation.

Yet yesterday's RNS states that Amati's shareholding is now 2,384,513. The RNS states that's 4.73% of the shares currently in issue and is down from 5.2%.

The only explanation that I can come up with that ties in with the RNS's and the figures is that Amati took part in the initial interim placing @ 90p per share and sold some of the shares they bought in that initial interim placing yesterday for a quick 14.4% profit! The two big trades yesterday of 124,166 and 120,000 shares ties in with the reduction in Amati's shareholding from 5.2 to 4.73% as per yesterday's RNS.

Unless you can find an RNS, webpsx, that shows that the percentage Amati shareholding increased from 3.09% (as at 9/5/2018) to 5.2% prior to the initial interim placing then I believe my previous assertion that those two big trades yesterday were, in fact, sells by Amati of some of the shares they bought in the initial interim placing.

I look forward to your reply, webpsx.

[papillon] 31/8/2019 12:47

mdalos1
31 Aug '19 - 12:22 - 4782 of 4782
0 0 0
How many Interim Initial Placng shares do you think were issued ?

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I KNOW how many shares were issued. The information is contained in the RNS's which I have read. It's 4,580,288 (50,383,169 - 45,802,881). There are going to be two interim placings. This was the first.

Ray Stafford bought circa 918k of those shares @ 90p for circa £826k. Obviously no other Director, or shareholder with over 3% of the shares, took part in the placing because it would have been mentioned in Tuesday's RNS.

[papillon] 30/8/2019 22:43

You are correct webpsx. The percentages do tally. Amati AIM VCT are one of a number of institutional investors with more than 3% of the shares in issue. I wonder why Amati AIM VCT are the only ones who have notified AMYT (and then AMYT have issued an RNS) that their percentage holding has decreased in line with the increase of the shares in issue following the interim placing?

If those 2 large trades separated by just 22 seconds are NOT both sells (which would explain why the share price never fell after they went through this early afternoon), then what are they? My original theory (which I deleted) was that it was a BED and ISA. The first trade was a sell of 124,166 shares and the second trade, 22 seconds later, of 120,000 shares was a buy back of 120,000 shares for his/her ISA. Both trades were done at the bid price. Hence putting the shares in an ISA meant he/she "lost" 4,166 shares. Is such a high value BED & ISA possible?

[webpax] 30/8/2019 18:35

The holdings RNS from Amati reflects their reduced percentage holding after today's Interim Initial Placing shares were admitted to trading on AIM. Looking at the percentage changes it looks like the number of shares they are holding is unchanged.

[papillon] 30/8/2019 13:32

Propinquity
Posts: 3,174
Price: 106.50
No Opinion
Director Buy
Today 10:48
A massive one, at that.

Bronxville
Posts: 1,170
Price: 106.50
No Opinion
RE: Director Buy
Today 12:54
A buy like that would give me confidence that they're expecting AP101 will get over the line.
Ray Stafford,Mr Sudocrem should know his ointments.

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Nice to see that Bronxville is turning from a bear into a bull of AP101

Of course it was stated that Ray Stafford was forking out £826k of his own cash in the interim placing in Tuesday's RNS. I first mentioned it on this bb two days ago.

Of course it's bullish that "Mr Sudocream" has forked out £826k on more AMYT shares, but is he being bullish of the new AMYT (effectively Aegerion with a lot less debt), or AP101, or both? Whatever his opinion it must considered to be a massive vote of confidence in the new AMYT. I expect "Mr Sudocream" is a very rich man, but even so a £826k investment is not to be sniffed at. Lets hope that "Mr Sudocream" is still compos mentis! :-). Let's hope that Bronxville is still compos mentis! LOL

[papillon] 30/8/2019 10:25

mdalos1
30 Aug '19 - 09:48 - 4776 of 4776
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I agree... any NASDAQ listing could be a pivotal moment providing the share price holds firm from September for a brief period.

Have you done the Maths on the CVR situation, specifically regarding the CAP on funds that might become available, the total number of (different) CVRs that might be on offer and the possible potential value of them in 2+ years time, at a per Shareholder per Share valuation, based on actual new AMRYT shares currently proposed as of this September ?

If you can work that out and factor in any/all possibilities of (for instance) actual Revenue, actual Market Cap, likely future SP, etc. the CVRs might not prove to be particularly valuable when all is said and done.

Hard Cash is KING... I intend to sit atop my "Throne" counting my Loot by Xmas !!

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"Have you done the Maths on the CVR situation"

NOPE! As far as I'm concerned the CVRs pay out possibilities are all just so much pie in the sky until AP101 passes it's Phase III trial. I'm ignoring them until that Phase III result just like I ignored the potential benefits from the FAST legacy O&G trust fund set up for existing FAST shareholders until someone showed an interest in exploring the Celtic Sea again; no one did!!

I'm NOT going to turn the CVRs down because I hope AP101 might come good. Will it come good? No idea. You said AP101 was a 50/50 gamble. I agree it's a gamble, but I have no idea of the odds of success, or failure.

[purple11] 30/8/2019 01:39

papp been away from the markets on holida in belize and san diego for a couple of months and saw the rise and thought Christ pappis had a winner!!
then saw consolidation.


o well puppy the chart loos good atb

[papillon] 29/8/2019 23:29

mdalos1
29 Aug '19 - 21:47 - 4773 of 4773
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approx. 2/3rds of the US Business's debt gets written off but Shareholders in that failing Business end up with approx. 2/3rds of the new AMRYT, whilst carrying over approx. 1/3rd of their current/original debt.

They (the US) like the look of what we may have (tbc) and are using us as an instrument to reinvent themselves in order to write-off a large chunk of their own Business failings. We're being acquired, the real Investors/Financial Institutes orchestrating matters are offering a brief Premium to us as part of their takeover of us and a "Carrot" to stay put for the medium-term.

Lots of (RTO) smoke & mirrors, for sure... and (our) AP101 is just the gamble it's always been.

p.s. There's more to the CVR arrangements than what you've gleaned from that RNS AND what you've posted is actually NOT supportive of what you're claiming either, if you read what you've written !!

You need to read your Shareholder Pack and the specifics of the lengthy CVR section

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But, mdalos, by your own figures the new AMYT will have only 1/3rd of the debt that Aegerion had and still have that circa US$130m (revenue for 2018) Aegerion revenue from Juxtapid and Myalept sales to service that much reduced debt, plus the revenue from Lojuxta. That Aegerion debt totalled US$446.6 (though that was reduced after 2018 ended according to the Novelion a/c's). Even if it was US$446.6m by your figures that would be reduced by 2/3rds to US$147m after the takeover. With a possible US$150m+ turnover in 2019 they should be able to service that debt by paying the annual interest bill on that US$147m debt (and maybe paying off some of the outstanding debt?). The annual interest bill is likely to be much less than US$30m on US$147m.

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"We're being acquired"

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We all know that mdalos. It's an RTO. AMYT is being used as the RTO vehicle rather like FAST was the RTO vehicle used to list Amryt.

As I've said before, mdalos, I'm only a tiny shareholder and I'm prepared to wait for the Nasdaq listing and see how the Americans value AMYT. When that happens I will make up my mind whether to sell. Just like you in fact!