Amryt Pharma Share Discussion Threads

[bermudashorts] 04/6/2019 18:51

yes probably!

[papillon] 04/6/2019 18:23

Thanks for that, Bermudsshorts. We seem to be the only ones left posting on this bb. Possibly the only ones reading it?

[bermudashorts] 04/6/2019 15:28

The Clinical Trials Register has been updated to show the addition of a further 5 study centres in the US - California, Florida (2), Pennsylvania and South Carolina. This doubles the no. of centres in the US to 10 and brings the worldwide total up to 52 different locations.

[bermudashorts] 31/5/2019 09:30

Papillion,

Yes that's true. The point I was trying to make is that you thought Amryt shareholders had been short changed on AP101 but whether that's true is a matter of opinion at this stage and depends on the value you place on having 2 approved drugs and the risk level you attribute to AP101.

[papillon] 31/5/2019 09:16

Many thanks for your reply, Bermudashorts. Whilst I agree with your comments it's worth pointing out that the US$847m offer by Amicus for Socioderm was made up of Amicus shares and cash so Socioderm shareholders also benefited from Amicus's portfolio and a share of all future revenue for Zorblisa. There was considerable de-risking in the event of failure of Zorblisa built into the deal because Socioderm shareholders were given US$229m (Amicus shares + cash) UPFRONT. Zorblisa did fail, but Socioderm shareholders kept their UPFRONT payment of US$229m!!


PS. So Bronxville was telling fibs when he said the report he posted was from a USA commentator! Typical Bronxville. No wonder he didn't post a link to the article.

[bermudashorts] 31/5/2019 08:59

Papillon,

It wasn't an article from the US - it was by well known UK biotech. commentator Jacob Plieth (Evaluate). You should easily be able to find it.

By the way, re. your previous comments, I know exactly the point you were trying to make but you can't compare the Scioderm and Amryt deals unless you take into account the fact that Amryt shareholders also received 2 approved drugs, a share in all future potential revenue for AP101 and considerable de-risking in the event of failure of AP101.

[papillon] 30/5/2019 23:05

mdalos1 - 30 May 2019 - 18:11:27 - 4514 of 4515
Amryt Pharma - AMYT
No... LOLs... just get out at the first most obvious opportunity when the reformed Business can be dealt in the Market(s) again.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

You could be right.

[papillon] 30/5/2019 17:56

Bronxville has posted a very long and interesting article on the lse bb. It gives an American perspective on the AMYT RTO of Aegerion. However, Bronxville doesn't give a link to the article.


"The group also hopes that Aegerion’s US infrastructure will help it launch AP101 for the rare skin disease epidermolysis bullosa – should its pivotal trial succeed (Amryt awaits crucial readout as it prepares rare disease push, August 14, 2018). Readout is now expected in 2020, a delay of well over a year; one delay was due to a requirement to increase the trial’s enrolment by 25%, which usually implies lack of powering and is rarely a positive sign."


The above passage leads Bronxville to surmise that "AP101 is a BUST"


The article also states "Myalept’s key US patent expires in 2026, while that of Juxtapid goes next year, leaving Amryt reliant on dosing IP."


Because the Juxtapid US patent expires next year, Bronxville assumes that the European patent for Lojuxta also expires next year, but is that true?


The article states "According to EvaluatePharma sellside consensus Lojuxta/Juxtapid, Myalept and AP101 could generate 2024 revenues of $49m, $236m and $193m respectively, and next year Amryt expects $25-40m of cost savings from the deal."

A predicted turnover of US$478m in 5 years time is not too bad!!!!! A Mkt Cap of 5 x turnover could mean US$2.4bn. NOT TO BE SNIFFED AT!!!!! Will it happen? Who knows? I don't!

[papillon] 30/5/2019 13:37

mdalos1 - 30 May 2019 - 12:39:47 - 4510 of 4511
Amryt Pharma - AMYT
... and we're going to end up part of a bigger Business that we have a smaller stake in too.

A major plus I can see unfolding is that if the formation of the reformed, bigger Business is marketed & communicated well as shares are reintroduced in AIM & NASDAQ, if there is a decent appetite for the NASDAQ shares it could give the AIM shares a reasonable boost and assuming we aren't diluted by the merger/acquisition transaction itself, we could see a brief opportunity to sell off a peak on AIM ?

... but it's months away and we may simply be getting shafted from all angles.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

"and we're going to end up part of a bigger Business that we have a smaller stake in too."

Yet, mdalos, the day prior to the deal being announced the Mkt Cap of AMYT was higher than that of Nasdaq listed NVLN! So how come AMYT shareholders end up with a smaller percentage stake in the NEWCO (around 34% before cash raising) than the Aegerion bond holders? Admittedly the NVLN shareholders will only own around 10% of the NEWCO, but the Aegerion bondholders really benefit for exchanging some of their JUNK bonds for shares in the NEWCO. They will also reap the benefits of ALL the proceeds of an FDA PRV sale as majority shareholders in the NEWCO.

Empire building!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

PS No wonder Cathal Friel was keen to sell his shares. After all he wanted AMYT to be sold once the AP101 phase III trial was deemed successful. Obviously Joe Wiley had a different ambition for AMYT.

[papillon] 30/5/2019 09:29

My argument, Bermudashorts, is that AMYT shareholders are getting NOWHERE near as a good a deal as that offered by Amicus to Socioderm. The fact that Zorblisa subsequently failed phase III is immaterial. Your post is missing my point completely!!!!! Please read and digest my posts again.

Basically AMYT shareholders are being offered US$85m for AP101 if certain milestones are passed. Socioderm were offered almost TEN TIMES THAT AMOUNT by Amicus if presumably similar milestones were passed for Zorblisa. Also Socioderm were promised extra money (US$100m, or 50% of sale price whichever was the lesser) if a PRV was issued by the FDA and subsequently sold. AMYT shareholders will be getting NOTHING in return for a PRV being sold.

These are facts, Bermudashorts. AMYT shareholders are basically being short changed by the deal announced last week when compared to the deal Amicus offered to Socioderm shareholders.

[bermudashorts] 29/5/2019 14:32

Papillon,

Yes, it was a good deal for Scioderm shareholders - less so for Amicus holders in light of the eventual outcome. I guess it all depends on your view on risk/reward of drugs in development versus approved drugs.

[chica1] 29/5/2019 14:02

Your nemesis Bronxville made reference to that last week


22 May '19 Price: 12.38
Bronxville 1,058 posts
RE: info please
It could be American hedge funds dumping their worthless Aegerion bonds onto Amryt.
You would hope Amryt management are smarter than that.

I see AP101 now pushed out to 2020....

[papillon] 29/5/2019 13:32

Also, Bermudashorts, my Zorblisa link shows that "Zorblisa, given breakthrough and orphan status by the FDA, could win a priority review voucher (PRV) because EB qualifies as a rare pediatric disease. If the FDA grants one and the PRV is sold, Amicus will pay Scioderm shareholders the lesser of $100 million or 50 percent of the proceeds."

AMYT will receive such a PRV from the FDA if AP101 is approved (see AMYT RNS dated 2/8/2018). Will AMYT shareholders receive extra cash if this PRV is subsequently sold, like the Socioderm shareholders? NO!!!!!!!!! Novelion/Aegerion bondholders will effectively get 2/3rds of the benefit of any PRV windfall!!!!!!!

I think the Aegerion takeover announced on the 21st May is a very good deal for Novelion/Aegerion bondholders and a very bad deal for AMYT shareholders who are being short changed on the AP101 prospects, when compared to the vastly superior terms Amicus were offering to Socioderm shareholders. To me this takeover of Aegerion just smacks of "Empire building"

[papillon] 29/5/2019 12:49

Hi Bermudashorts. I haven't overlooked Metreleptin. Aegerion are already selling Metreleptin (US$71.4m sales in 2018), but it wasn't helping Aegerion because of it's massive debts. The Novelion balance sheet is a complete mess and this AMYT bid plus putting Aegerion into Chapter 11 is possibly the Novelion bondholders only hope of protecting their investment and growing their investment in the future via a successful outcome of the EASE (AP101) phase III trial.

I still think a US$85m windfall for AMYT shareholders if, as seems likely, AP101 comes to market as a treatment for EB and the "milestones" (whatever they are, exactly) referred to in the recent RNS are achieved is not overly generous for the circa 2/3rds of AP101 that are effectively being "gifted" by AMYT shareholders to Aegerion bondholders, especially when AP101 is targeting a "market" of > US$1bn and AP101 will be the first EB treatment to reach market. I'm thinking back to the Amicus takeover of Socioderm and it's EB treatment, Zorblisa. Amicus offered US$847m for Socioderm and US$227m of cash and shares upfront to gain Zorblisa which had passed phase II trials and was ahead of AP101 to be the first EB treatment to come to market.

[papillon] 29/5/2019 07:11

On going through the most recent AMYT Aegerion acquisition RNS & presentation (the latter is accessible on their web site and dated the 21st May and marked "strictly private and confidential") the recommended acquisition of Aegerion seems to me to offer greater upside to the beleaguered Aegerion bondholders than current AMYT shareholders. The Novelion/Aegerion balance sheet is an absolute mess, but a successful AP101 with an "Addressable market estimated at > US$1bn", combined with Aegerion being put through a temporary Chapter 11, gives those Aegerion bondholders a stake in a new company with a product, AP101, with great growth prospects. All that AMYT shareholders get in compensation for losing ALL of the potential AP101 upside is a measly US$85m (in cash, or shares). The attraction to Joe Wiley must be that he will now be fronting a much larger company. Empire building? That seems to be the case to me.


Of course the US$60m placing obviates the placing that AMYT would have needed if Aegerion wasn't to be acquired


The presentation further delays the read out of AP101 (EASE) top line data until H1 2020. AMYT has form when it comes to extending timelines! It was only a few months ago when it was expected in H2 2019. Now the last patient is expected to be enrolled by the end of Q4 2019, whereas a few months ago it was by the end of Q3 2019!

Another point to note is that the Gene Therapy Platform, AP103, gets a star billing, but AP102 is conspicuous by it's complete absence! A complete dud? Looks like it.

[papillon] 27/5/2019 22:49

Bronxville
Posts: 1,052
Opinion:
No Opinion
Price:
12.375
OT:The Sheriff of Nottingham
Thu 12:27
has lost his marbles..
Someone get the straight jacket and off to the madhouse.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

LOL. It's a shame I don't live in the Republic of Ireland because they could incarcerate me in the same "madhouse" as Bronxville! LOL. Bronxville and papillon in adjacent beds, both in their straight jackets, in the same Dublin "madhouse"! Now there's a thought! LOL