Amryt Pharma Share Discussion Threads

[justiceforthemany] 01/5/2018 12:35

Trading well below the placing price now of 20p. Stratford's Shire on the brink of being taken over. Amryt? Probable IMO

[papillon] 30/4/2018 22:42

If one takes the Lojuxta revenue of 5.75m Euros given by AMYT for the 1st 6 months of 2017 (interim results RNS 4/9/2017) and compare it to the figure given for the whole of 2017 of 11.924m Euros one can easily see there was effectively NO GROWTH in Lojuxta revenue in the last months of 2017 compared with the 1st 6 months!! Something to ponder. One can only hope that the flurry of new distribution deals announced via RNS over the last 6 months can lead to further growth in Lojuxta revenue during 2018.

Perhaps this is why we never got a Lojuxta revenue forecast for 2018 in the RNS dated 17/4/2018?

[papillon] 30/4/2018 18:19

My post deleted 1/5/2018. Nonsense!

[papillon] 30/4/2018 13:17

Blimey the share price has risen by 0.2p (1.18%)! Will wonders never cease? The excitement is too much for me. I don't want to strain my heart! I'll have to have a lie down. :-)

[sharesoc] 30/4/2018 13:02

The Amryt Pharma presentation and stockopedia report from our seminar in London on the 18th April can be found in our members area here:

[greendragon777] 30/4/2018 00:20

Yes, Cryptos have taken a fair jump recently Paps but they went to a bit of a lull prior. I agree they could easily fall back again as it seems fairly shaky in the market still.

Lots of key milestones coming up for IOTA over the next several months so looking forward to those. It's platform/network (The Tangle) is getting better by the day and continue advancing important collaborations with industry Leaders in IoT such as Fujitsu/Bosch and many others.

[greendragon777] 30/4/2018 00:14

That answers that then Paps. It'll be interesting to see how it performs if/when they get fully approved. A 50p price target for AMYT before the end of the year would be nice although I believe it could be higher if they land some good deals in the meantime. A lot of work to do though and obviously no guarantees.

[papillon] 29/4/2018 23:07

O/T, greendragon. Your IOTA cryptocurrency has doubled within the past month. Congratulations are in order!! Though it looks like the price is up against strong resistance and it's possible the price will soon fall back down, IMO.

[papillon] 29/4/2018 22:40

Because the FARN share price had already spiked up from circa 270p earlier in 2017, greendragon, following on from information contained in this RNS dated 9/2/2017:

"Targeted pipeline progress for 2017:

Traumakine®:

· The Company expects to obtain the read-out for the pan-European phase III trial (INTEREST) results (all-cause mortality at day 28) during H2 2017.

· The Company has recently received the third recommendation from the trial IDMC (Independent Data Monitoring Committee) to continue the study without any modifications."

Hence, greendragon, it was already a fait accompli (a foregone conclusion) that the phase III trial would continue without any modifications before the interim trial update was issued on 4/8/2017. The news was already factored into the FARN share price following on from the big rise in the FARN share price 6 months earlier from circa 270p to circa 810p following the release of the RNS dated 9/2/2017.

PS. A similar tripling of the AMYT share price following on from the EASE interim results expected Q4 2018 would give an AMYT share price of circa 50p. Is that likely to happen? How the heck would I know?

[greendragon777] 29/4/2018 17:42

Interesting find Paps, defo worth keeping an eye on out of interest. Without knowing anything about the company, I wonder why the share price didn't move on 4th August when they announced what looks to be their interims for that trial?

[papillon] 27/4/2018 18:22

Well the AMYT share price has been a very poor performer since AMYT listed 2 years ago. Those taking part in the two placings (the first when the company listed @ 24p and the second last September @ 20p) and still holding are nursing paper losses. With the benefit of hindsight the initial placing @ 24p obviously overpriced AMYT. That was evident as the share price declined over the next circa 6 months to sub 14p. Only the EIB loan and the Lojuxta (immediately revenue generating) licensing deal, announced circa 6 months after listing caused a recovery in the AMYT share price so that a year after it listed the share price reached a high of 27p in May 2017. Unfortunately it's been downhill ever since then for the AMYT share price so today it's only 17p. The perceived lack of positive news, the bad news of the 20p placing last September and the circa 6 months delay in the interim EASE trial results has caused this decline in the share price

Shareholders are basically voting with their feet. I think the company is undervalued at 17p, but it looks like I might be in the minority with that opinion. Shore Capital reckon that AMYT is worth 20p on Lojuxta alone. I think that is over optimistic, but I do believe that somewhere around 10p is fair value for Lojuxta. Hence one is currently getting AP101 (in phase III), AP102 and AP103, plus remaining cash (circa 15m+ Euro's?), for just 7p per share IMO. That surely can't be right?

EDITED. I've decided to be more cautious with my opinion on the worth of Lojuxta to the AMYT share price and hence Mkt Cap. 10p per share = £27.5m. I think that is fair value for Lojuxta which had revenues of approx 12m Euro's in 2017 and a gross margin of 58% and that revenue is expected to increase during 2018 after Lojuxta revenue grew 65% in 2017 compared with 2016. Hence that means one is getting a treatment (AP101) currently in phase III trials as a treatment for EB that has already received regulatory approval (early 2016) as a treatment for PTW's (plus 2 pre clinical treatments, AP102 & AP103) PLUS remaining cash (cash was circa 20m Euro's @ 31/12/2017) of possibly 15m+ Euro's (based on last years cash burn) ALL FOR 7p per share = £19m.

AMYT seems cheap to me @ the current 17p share price, but it seems that I'm one of the few who believes that. I don't mind being thought wrong now by other investors if I'm proved correct sometime in the (near) future. The AMYT share price will be either multiples of it's current 17p in 6 months time, or 10p, or less. The AP101 results and any further Lojuxta type deals will determine the AMYT share price in 6 months time. Fingers crossed!!

[papillon] 27/4/2018 14:07

What's a "Bloody waste of time", teamwork? AMYT? Posting on a message board? Or both? :-)

[teamwork1] 27/4/2018 09:07

Bloody waste of time

[papillon] 25/4/2018 21:38

As usual with AMYT the quoted spread is a nonsense. 112k buy @ 17.12p @ 2.39pm. Then another 100k sell @ 17p @ 4.22pm.

EDIT: Where is the share price going over the next few months? No idea! :-)

I've always said that for me AMYT is a pure punt; a gamble on the EASE trial results and I would continue to hold my circa £5k punt until those interim trial results are announced. That means I'm here for at least the next 5-6 months. Where the share price is going during those 5-6 months before the interim trial results are released is pure guesswork. AMYT's brokers, Shore Capital, reckon that AMYT is worth 20p per share on Lojuxta alone, but at the moment it's obvious that the Market doesn't agree with that valuation. Still the Lojuxta revenue (and it's growth) wil ultimatelyl provide a backstop for the AMYT share price Of course we could get good news, such as another Lojuxta type deal, before the interim trial results. Who knows?

[moneytree1] 25/4/2018 15:52

hold tight and hope Pappy.

[papillon] 25/4/2018 15:49

Another possible rollover of 100k @ 2:14pm (2 x 100k trades separated by just 14 seconds). Of course it's also possible they are 2 separate trades, but if so I prseume the share price would have fallen by more than it has?

The share price is resting on support. Will it hold? Who knows? I don't! Luckily I only punt small amounts of money on AIM shares. I'm not like the punter who gambled all his savings (£350k) on CVR days before it went bust.

If I wasn't already at my maximum I might be tempted to buy more AMYT shares because it's resting on support. However continually "averaging down" can be very dangerous.

[diamondstar1] 25/4/2018 15:40

Looks like Cathal Friel has got a good sense for money and knows where investors are willing to put their money. At the moment, Pharma in Ireland is very hot, due primarily (in my opinion) to the low corporate taxation of 12.5%. This has attracted companies like Shire to relocate to Ireland. Shire is in the process of being acquired by Takeda for a sum of £46 billion. Hence, the Irish Pharma business model with low corporate taxation (and access to very large pan-EU markets) favours companies like Amryt and Open Orphan.

[moneytree1] 25/4/2018 15:32

its dropping Paps

don't lose your shirt old timer.

[papillon] 25/4/2018 15:28

My thanks for your reply, diamondstar (it was so good you posted it twice! :-)). digadee was correct. My apologies, digadee.

Cathal Friel is an opportunist, prepared to jump on the latest bandwagon. He's got money from selling the stockbroking firm he founded (sold for circa 100m Euro's in 2006). He founded FAST with O&G pro's (ex COVE?) and listed in 2012 on AIM when the O&G bandwagon was at full speed. FAST had interests offshore Ireland & in North Africa. Whilst FAST was listed he also founded another O&G with O&G pro's (ex Tullow), T5 O&G, with interests in Africa. That remains private. When the O&G bandwagon came off the rails in 2015, following the collapse in the PoO, Friel changed FAST's direction and it became AMYT, a biopharma specialising in orphan drug treatments. Again he co-founded it as a private company with a pro, a biopharma one this time (Wiley) and it then reversed into FAST.

The orphan drug bandwagon is still ongoing hence he's co-founded OpenOrphan. I wonder now that the PoO has recovered somewhat whether we'll see T5 list?

[diamondstar1] 25/4/2018 15:03

After successful floatation on the stock exchange, I believe they will likely appoint a new Chief Medical Officer, so this should not be a problem. Dairine’s CMO role is likely a temporary one.

[diamondstar1] 25/4/2018 15:03

I remember writing about Open Orphan. It is being run by CEO Dairine Dempsey, who has a very strong regulatory background (though interesting that Dairine is also acting as Chief Medical Officer without any formal medical qualifications).

My understanding on Open Orphan - they will likely target mainly the smaller US biotech companies that do not have an EU presence, and in-license products to EU as their core business model. Dairine is clearly a person who would be strong capabilities in leading the regulatory process for drug approvals in EU.

My personal opinion - I do not see Open Orphan as direct competition for Amryt. Amryt have clinical development capabilities and appear to be stronger in certain therapeutic areas - dermatology, endocrine/metabolic and CNS area (my assumption that Amryt will start looking at CNS Orphan diseases because Joe Wiley is a Certified Neurologist). Amryt seem to be a couple of steps ahead in terms of Marketing capabilities - as they have been selling Lojuxta; Open Orphan will have to develop this area quickly. One area I am guessing Open Orphan may try to penetrate is Oncology (cancer) rare conditions. Hopefully, this will avoid major completion in therapeutic areas of focus between the 2 companies.

[greendragon777] 25/4/2018 14:02

Yes I remember this being mentioned before. My only guess is that he won't go in Direct competition as it would only be shooting himself in the foot with such a large shareholding!

Also if I remember correctly, it could be about 12 months away before they even get to float it!