Amryt Pharma Share Discussion Threads

[bazworth] 06/4/2018 16:53

No need for bad language though!! Life is far too short!!

[papillon] 06/4/2018 16:26

moneytree is just a big COUNT, bazworth. I filtered him and that got up his nose so he follows me around like a bad smell.

EDITED at the request of bazworth.

[bazworth] 06/4/2018 14:46

pleased we don’t have pictures!

[moneytree1] 06/4/2018 14:33

good idea.silly to constantly embarrass yourself on a public forum.

[papillon] 06/4/2018 14:26

Couldn't resist the temptation to comment on diamondstar's excellent post, bazworth. I'll zip my big mouth shut again now. Back to sleep for me, bazworth. :-)

[bazworth] 06/4/2018 14:00

papillon, thought you were to remain silent until the next RNS.....!

Tee-hee!

[papillon] 06/4/2018 13:17

A very sensible post, diamondstar. I'm gambling on the AP101 trials being successful, however I wouldn't bet my life savings on it!! LOL. Similarly I'm gambling on AMYT securing another Lojuxta type licensing deal in 2018; a deal that is immediately cash generative, like the Lojuxta deal. However I wouldn't bet my life savings on it!! LOL.

I believe that the AMYT BoD and management are very capable people, but they'll still need to be lucky if my gamble is to pay off.

PS. At the risk of being thought pedantic, Switzerland is not in the EU.

[sidam] 06/4/2018 10:39

Diamondstar

Thank you for you detailed post. I have always considered that here are three types of poster. The vast majority who, although putting forward their own conclusions, do try to be accurate. Then there are the share promotors and those that seem to post just to annoy everyone else.

I promise you that I am in the first camp. I can and have been very wrong on early stage companies and it is self evident that AMYT is high risk. I am in as I think the risks of company failure may have been reduced, the risks of the trial failure have been reduced and the upside may have been increased. It is a risk with some of my portfolio, but I consider it is a calculated risk.

I am going to revisit my notes and I may come back on some of your points.

However, thank you once again. Your remarks must be taken seriously especially as you appear to have industry experience.

[waterloo01] 06/4/2018 06:37

Very balanced post Diamond. Cheers.

[diamondstar1] 06/4/2018 02:30

Hi Sidam,

Welcome to this discussion board. My first word of advice to you - do not take all that is discussed here too seriously. This is a discussion board, where people raise potential theories and ideas, and discuss their hypothesis. What we write here is not the gospel truth, therefore, it should not cause misunderstandings. For example, I was one of the commentators who mentioned that Amryt may be developing links with Amicus to sell the product in USA. I also agreed that new transparency regulations make it simple for a Pharma company to request study results from another company. Amicus was already openly offering the data from their study. So you may be right - Amryt may have full intention to sell the product in USA by itself.

However, do consider this - even in EU - which is Amryt’s home ground - it has been clear from its last 5 recent announcements that it cannot even sell in regional parts of EU using its own sales force. It has to effectively rely on partners to sell Lojuxta in EU. Eg, GryNumber Health in Central and Eastern EU and RCC Pharma in Switzerland. So, they are effectively out -licensing an out-licensed product to another company. If it was so simple to create distribution networks, why not plant 1 Amryt employee in Switzerland, 1 in Eastern EU, 1 in Central EU - and eat the whole pie for themselves? So, USA will be an interesting market to conquer for Amryt - there are different models including co-marketing and co-licensing. They could even use a model whereby they have a small office in USA and co-licence with another company such as Amicus. This creates a competitive environment, which can rely on existing sales network, and leverages on Amicus established presence in USA, with a billion capitalisation (20x size of Amryt).

A second piece of advice to you - do not take the words from Amryt Senior Mx as the gospel truth. For example, peak figures for Episalvan sales in EB - predicted to reach 500 million Euro. I have been in the industry long enough and have conducted sufficient due diligence activities for acquisition of biotech/pharma companies - to realise that these are merely projections. Change one of the assumptions, and you are left with a wildly different figure. One of the companies we were looking to acquire had a lead product with projected peak sales of USD 3 billion. What are the peak sales now, several years later? USD 300 million, or 10% of predicted peak value. How do Amryts figure stack up? USA has 40,000 - 50,000 EB patients, and EU should have roughly equal numbers ie 100,000 in total. If market penetration is a modest 10%, and they are able to charge a nice round figure of 10,000 Euro per patient per year - this should give them 100 million Euro sales per year.

Will the fact that they have excluded EB simplex patients affect the drug label? Yes, in my experience, but please do not take my words as the truth. What can happen, is that doctors could potentially prescribe the drug off-label, if they think it’s beneficial in their EB simplex patients.

Finally, I congratulate you on being an Amryt bull - more bulls like you would be great! If you read my posts for the past 6 months, you would realise that I’m a bull too, with one caveat. I openly admit to parting with 50% of my Amryt holdings after the recent announcement. Unlike Paps, I didn’t buy it back with the current yearly lows. I’m now half the bull I used to be! Why did I do so? Because I believe that the share market is an effective mechanism in appreciating changes in market dynamics. For example, when Amicus announced Zorblisa’s demise - Amryt’s share price should have soared 30-40 percent. It did not. The reason for this, I now believe, it that the market actually appreciates that Zorblisa’s failure in Ph 3 to meet its Primary Endpoint (despite really nice data from two Ph 2 studies) - would mean that Amryt would also have greater difficulty in meeting its Primary Endpoint in Ph 3. This is simply my theory. So, effectively, this cancelled out Episalvan’s benefit of being the forerunner in the EB race. The fact that Amryt are now busy fiddling with their study design last minute - is also an indication to me, that they are not fully confident in meeting their Primary Endpoint. Yes, they are trying their best to swing the odds in their favour, but it is not a given certainly in succeeding in Ph 3.

Alas, I would quote what Papillon often says - that Amryt is a punt, a gamble! This is my current opinion - I realise my previous mistake in putting too high Probability of Technical Success (PTS) values for the EASE trial, and relying too much on information provided by the media, by Brokers, or Amryt Senior Mx (rather than developing my own conclusions).

This is the benefit of this advfn site - to discuss, to debate, to explore and to try to understand better.

[papillon] 04/4/2018 22:15

From the lse bb.

Bermudashorts
Posts: 9,602
Off Topic
Opinion: No Opinion
Price: 17.625
Sweet gene victory Today 19:04 Nice mention here for Amryt and their newly acquired EB gene therapy

[sidam] 04/4/2018 14:03

This is a bit long, but I hope it helps.

Since the trading statement, I have undertaken some more research, following which I have concluded that some of the postings on this thread include misunderstandings. So I thought I might give you my take. You will realise I am a bull (I hope not in a china shop).

Let us start with the comments on the Amicus data. It appears to me that some commentators have assumed that there was a hidden agenda and that Amicus only gave the information on the understanding or agreement that they would have the marketing rights to AP101 for EB (AP101/EB) in the US. I consider that assumption to be wrong. Management are still indicating that they will enter that market directly. There are only some 20 sites and management considers that they will need only 8 people on the road to cover those. Their budget is $200,000 per employee.

The change in the trial to exclude simplex and its possible effects on the level of projected sales. Management’s original guidance of projected peak sales of AP101/EB was €500m. This assumed that the Korblisa trial was successful and entered the market. Management did not change that guidance following the failure of that trial. EB simplex patients account for well over 50% of all EB patients, but they were projected to account for only 20% of sales. Assuming the AP101 trial is successful, unless the labelling specifically excludes simplex patients, they could still be prescribed the product. Furthermore without Korblisa it is possible that peak sales would be significantly higher than originally projected. I am still assuming peak sales of €500m. On that basis, I think the share price could, given time, reach or exceed £2 in the longer term - not now. If anyone wants to know my reasoning, please ask.

I am however surprised that there has been so little comment on AP101 for other indications. Although one poster did indicate their view that this would reduce the price of the product. That comment is, I am convinced, wrong. The company has said that these are unmet needs and that they would apply for Orphan Drug Designation for these additional indications. Management has given guidance that the anticipated selling price would be similar to that for EB and that the potential market could be as large. The cost of selling would be higher than for EB as there will be many more sites – every major hospital rather than 35 centres in the EU and 20 in the US. Management also indicated that current EU marketing authorisations could cover some indications. Furthermore some product is being released on compassionate grounds. I understand that Management considers that we could know some of this as early as the interims, which, last year, were in September. If potential sales were €500m, this would also be an extremely valuable product and the risks may be much lower because of existing marketing authorities.

So the overall risks have been reduced and the potential increased. The safety play would be to wait until the interims, but I would hope the price would be much higher by then as the news is more widely distributed and understood by the market. The brokers comment on the trading statement was very short and did not go into real detail. I would expect a major note after the final results. That could drive the share price.

If anyone is going to share society (I am not), could they clarify some of these points and post a comment.

[sharesoc] 04/4/2018 12:06

Amyrt Pharma present at our growth company seminar in London on the 18th April. More details and registration here:

[greendragon777] 01/4/2018 20:57

2018 is gonna be the year of regulations. Most governments are pro blockchain which was evident at the G20 Summit where they emphasized their Support for the technology but that they need to be regulated. I'm pro regulation because it will help clean the industry up and flush out all the bad actors.

Time will tell for sure....we're living in interesting times! ☺

[papillon] 01/4/2018 20:07

You could be right, greendragon. However will Governments allow them to succeed? Only time will tell and I might be dead by then! :-)

[moneytree1] 01/4/2018 11:43

youre so clever Pappy.

[papillon] 31/3/2018 22:58

O/T. CRYPTOCURRENCIES. They are being hammered!! Bitcoin down over 13% on Friday to under US$6,900. IOTA down over 10% on Friday to under US$1.10. The IOTA price has been literally slaughtered since the start of the year. Looking at the list of cryptocurrency prices it was a bloodbath on Friday! I hope you sold all of your IOTA earlier this year, greendragon.

I never understood them and it's never wise to invest in something you don't understand so I wasn't tempted to buy any of them. I wouldn't touch them with a barge pole. All those financial web sites (including advfn) pushing (ramping) cryptocurrencies when the prices were near their peak just before Xmas should be ashamed of themselves because the mugs who piled in then on that advice must be regretting it now. They are undoubtedly a lot poorer, but probably not any wiser. I posted before Xmas that the enthusiasm for these cryptocurrencies was reminiscent of the 17th century Dutch tulip mania and it would all end in tears.

[papillon] 29/3/2018 12:32

O/T. I'm not posting on AMYT, but on another biopharma, C4XD. It listed in late summer 2015 and judging by the lack of posts on the advfn C4XD bb I'm not the only one who has never heard of it!! Investors have today because it tops the leaderboard of top percentage risers today! Currently up 100% on yesterday's closing price. At one time it was up almost 200%.

Prior to today the C4XD chart was VERY BEARISH, the share price having more than halved over the preceeding 18 months and dropped by around 30% this month alone. Then this blockbusting RNS was issued today. Proof, if proof be needed, that good (or bad) news can blow the chart away!!



PS. The bearish chart before today's RNS shows that not all AIM companies leak like a sieve!! Today's news obviously completely surprised the market.

[moneytree1] 28/3/2018 14:33

live it large pappy.

make your broker rich.

[bazworth] 28/3/2018 14:12

Why worry about the sp? If the Company do well, as we all hope, then the share price will follow. I think they’re making good progress on all fronts and expect to see more announcements as the year progresses. The last RNS was assuring!!

[papillon] 28/3/2018 13:45

Not posting on AMYT prospects as such, just saying I bought, today, a further 3323 shares @ 17.66p. Just 2 trades so far today, totalling a paltry 7395 shares. Possibly being a mug buying more, but I'm gambling on the results, expected in the middle of April, giving a bit of a short term fillip to the share price We shall see, in just over 2 weeks time, whether I'm throwing good money after bad. After all most AIM listed biotechs turn out to be lousy long term investments. Perhaps AMYT could turn out to be the exception that proves that rule? Only time will tell.

Basically I've bought back the 5,000 shares I sold @ 19p plus another 2,215, so I've now got 27,215 shares. After commission costs I made a few quid, but probably not enough to make it worth the effort. :-)

Now back to sleep until the Final Results RNS. :-)

PS. Not another bloody presentation on the 18th April!! AMYT must be experts by now on giving presentations that do Sweet FA for the share price

[sharesoc] 27/3/2018 15:03

Amryt Pharma present at our upcoming growth company seminar on the 18th April which may be of interest to potential investors and current shareholders: