Amryt Pharma Share Discussion Threads

[papillon] 18/4/2018 22:28

Thanks for the links, Bronxville. I will say this to you, buddy. You made the right decision to sell on seeing last month's update ging by the share price performance since then. The share price back on the 15th March rose initially towards the 20.3p resistance before falling back. I don't know what price you got back then, but I sold some shares that day and got 19p. You made the right decision to sell that day because the share price has since drifted back down to towards the 17.3p support. Will the share price bounce off that support? It's likely (fingers crossed!!), especially since there was a massive 500k sell earlier today @ 17.25p that could have been hanging like the Sword of Damocles over the share price and holding the share price back for some time.

There's an AMYT presentation tonight. That might tempt some buyers, even though previous presentations have had no apparent effect on the share price AMYT hasn't attracted a "fan club" of investors like some AIM speculative shares. AMYT is still very much under the radar of the share buying public.

Unless we get a Lojuxta type licensing deal in the meantime the next big news will be the interim AP101 trial update in around 6 months time. Without news, or increased investor appetite for the shares I can see the AMYT share price drifting for the next 6 months; maybe between the support @ 17.3p & resistance @ 20.3p.

Keep posting Bronxville, whatever you decide. To buy, or not to buy, that is the question! :-)

[papillon] 18/4/2018 20:50

Bronxville quotes some comment about the EIB loan (but doesn't give the source), however the company was very specific in it's 2/12/2016 RNS. The remaining 10m is available in 2 tranches of 5m "available upon the achievement of certain milestones in relation to Episalvan." No mention of AP102 in that RNS in relation to the EIB loan milestones. Of course if all of that 5m isn't spent on progressing Episalvan then obviously some will be left over to spend on AP102.

Bronxville also asks whether AP102 is in the clinic yet? Again Bronxville needs to read yesterday's RNS because the answer to his question is obviously NOT because yesterday's RNS states explicitly "Throughout 2017, the Group initiated and conducted various other pre-clinical studies. These studies are ongoing and the Group expects to complete these pre-clinical studies in 2018." Wiley did promise AP102 would enter the "clinic" during 2017. AMYT are obviously running behind schedule with AP102. Why? Who knows? Could be "ineptitude", or it could be that they are concentrating on AP101 & Lojuxta and haven't been able to give as much time to AP102 progress? Again, who knows?

God only knows why Bronxville is worried about the EIB loan & AP102 since he sold his AMYT shares following last month's update and has "No re-entry at the for the foreseeable future". His English is a bit hard to decipher, but I believe he means he has no intention of buying back into AMYT in the forseeable future. So why is he worried? However if he wants to post on AMYT that's up to him. The lse & advfn bb's are for discussion purposes; it's definitely NOT a requirement to be a shareholder to post on a particular share discussion board. I don't think his opinion influences the AMYT sp, just like my opinion doesn't influences the share price

[papillon] 18/4/2018 17:07

..........

[papillon] 18/4/2018 16:55

Bronxville, on the lse bb, mentions the company has "gone silent" on AP102. Admittedly yesterday's RNS is very long, out of necessity since it is the 2017 Final results RNS, so perhaps Bronxville missed the fact that it does receive a 3 paragraph statement in yesterday's RNS!


"AP102

AP102 is an early stage drug asset, which may represent a novel, next generation somatostatin analogue ("SSA") peptide medicine for patients with rare neuroendocrine diseases, where there is a high unmet medical need, including acromegaly. Acromegaly is a rare endocrine disorder in which the body produces excessive growth hormone, leading to abnormal growth throughout the body over time.



In November 2016, we secured orphan drug designation for AP102 from the FDA. The FDA's Orphan Drug Designation program provides orphan status to drugs and biologics that are being developed to address rare diseases or disorders that affect fewer than 200,000 people in the United States. With orphan designation, AP102 qualifies for various incentives, including tax credits for qualified clinical trials and market exclusivity upon regulatory approval.



In February 2017, we received positive results from a pre-clinical study that compared AP102 with pasireotide, an approved product for treating patients with resistant acromegaly. Significantly, AP102 did not demonstrate the potential to cause diabetes, an observation which, if replicated in clinical studies, could be clinically beneficial in treating acromegaly. Amryt's study used a well-established diabetic rat model to examine whether or not AP102 has an effect on glucose levels or on food/water intake compared with controls. The study results showed that AP102 had no effect on either in diabetic rats compared with controls. This indicates no impairment in glucose control in these diabetic animals when treated with AP102. Throughout 2017, the Group initiated and conducted various other pre-clinical studies. These studies are ongoing and the Group expects to complete these pre-clinical studies in 2018."

Bronxville also states that "I think the 2nd 10 mil from the EIB was for AP102"

NOT so! The RNS states categorically it's dependent on Episalvan (AP101) progress!

Here's the relevant passage from the 2/12/2016 RNS:

"The Facility has a five-year term from drawdown and the associated repayment schedule is expected to present a minimal cash burden to the Company during the term, ahead of repayment. The Facility is split into three tranches, with €10 million available immediately and two further tranches of €5 million available upon the achievement of certain milestones in relation to Episalvan."

At the risk of being thought pedantic AMYT haven't issued that many RNS's so it's easy to go back and check out the facts before posting! :-)

[papillon] 18/4/2018 12:58

Couple of good posts, by Jimbobtechstock & GreenDragon, over on the lse AMYT bb in reply to Bronxville's post.

Just to clarify the situation on the 20m Euro EIB loan; only 50% (10m Euro's) could be drawn down. The remaining 10m Euro's could only be drawn down after certain milestones were met. Obviously those milestones have yet to be achieved.

AMYT had 20.5m Euro's of cash on the 31/12/2017. Take away the 13.4m Euro net proceeds of the placing and one is left with around 7m Euro's. Last years cash burn was over 11m Euro's. Hence the analysts were right last year and AMYT would run out of cash in summer 2018. Hence AMYT would have needed to raise cash now if it hadn't done so last September. With the benefit of hindsight (and the delayed AP101 trial results by around 6 months) raising the cash last September was prudent and the right thing to do.

All last years placing and hence dilution has done is lower the trading range of AMYT from support at 20.3p and resistance at 27p to support at 17.3p and resistance at 20.3p. Compare the share price performance of AMYT with that of N4P. The latter has risen around 4 fold since last summer yet N4P shareholders have suffered much greater dilution than those of AMYT during that time, even though N4P have not had a placing! However there have been constant, almost non stop, warrant conversions at prices less than half that of the current share price So why has N4P performed so well despite this dilution? Simple: newsflow and investor perception.

[papillon] 17/4/2018 21:58

"Bronxville (posting on the lse bb)
"I admit I don't know much about biotechnology but I like black and white.Either Episalvan works or it doesn't.I thought it did until the update in March now I'm not so sure."

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

I don't know much about biotech either. As regards whether Episalvan works? Well it's a fact that Episalvan received regulatory approval from the EMA (European Medical Agency) as a treatment fot PTW's (Partial Thickness Wounds) over 2 years ago so it presumably works as a treatment for PTW's! Otherwise why would the EMA have approved it? However whether it works as a treatment for EB and hence receives EMA regulatory approval is something we don't yet know!! :-). It's something I would like to know, but I cannot foretell the future, more's the pity! If I could I wouldn't be wasting my time reading and posting on these message boards! :-)

We wont get an idea as to whether Episalvan works as a treatment for EB until circa 6 months time and we wont know for definite until circa 12 months time. Seeing it's a treatment for an "orphan" condition it's likely EMA regulatory approval will soon follow on if it works.

PS Be nice to get diamondstar's view of today's RNS.

[papillon] 17/4/2018 14:58

Market seems completely underwhelmed by today's RNS going by the share price performance!

Though I doubt biotechs/biopharmas are flavour of the month today with investors after IMM's dreadfully bad news RNS today. IMM share price currently down 76%. OUCH! Luckily I only heard of IMM last week and it was far too much of a gamble for me. So fortunately not involved.

[digadee] 17/4/2018 14:20

Amryt board are damned if they do and damned if they dont.Looking for more opportunities, whats wrong with that.

[greendragon777] 17/4/2018 13:39

Very good questing Paps, is it because they think the EB market potential for AP101 has shrunk considerably or because these other markets are huge. If it's not covered in tomorrow's presentation then hopefully we'll get some more insight at the AGM.

Other than that, nothing special at all about the results today that at least we weren't expecting!

[papillon] 17/4/2018 13:10

Back to sleep!! Wasn't worth turning on the computer today!

Cash burn during 2017 was 11.86 million Euro's. They had 20.50 million Euro's of cash remaining @ 31/12/2017. Plus they had 10 million Euro's undrawn from the EIB facility so they are not going bust, or will require another placing, anytime soon! Be grateful for small mercies! :-)

They have BOOSTED their loss for the year to 26.11 million Euro's by including a "Non-cash change in fair value of contingent consideration" of 11.10 million Euro's, what ever a "contingent consideration" means. A piece of allowed financial "jiggery pokery" that will enable them to lower their future tax bill? A case of throwing in everything bar the kitchen sink to boost the loss for future tax purposes?

Ah well. I'm still holding all my shares and will wait and see what happens to the share price following on from tomorrow's presentation. What we need at that presentation is a Lojuxta revenue forecast for 2018, but I'm not that optimistic. Surely if they could have given such a forecast with any confidence they would have done so in today's RNS?

[gnnmartin] 17/4/2018 12:41

But at least they have excellent contacts with the the EB community, which should make it easier to evaluate and evolve the technology from Dublin.

[papillon] 16/4/2018 18:56

Be careful, moneytree, I could be a very dangerous robot. :-)

[papillon] 16/4/2018 18:15

bazworth 16 Apr '18 - 18:10 - 2630 of 2631 (Filtered)

0 0 0
bazworth 16 Apr '18 - 18:11 - 2631 of 2631 (Filtered)

[bazworth] 16/4/2018 18:11

Good grief! I’m devastated....

P will be talking to himself soon!

[bazworth] 16/4/2018 18:10

Good grief! I’m devastated....

[papillon] 16/4/2018 16:47

bazworth? Filtered. You're joining moneytree in the filter bin. Bye, bye. :-)

[bazworth] 16/4/2018 16:13

Well said moneytree1...!!