Aston Martin Lagonda Glo... Share Discussion Threads

[nirvs] 14/4/2003 09:26

Also went long this morning.

[gardenboy] 14/4/2003 09:19

03 earnings appear to have been raised up very recently.

Present forecast range would suggest shares are definitely a buy.

profit / eps

03 86-92m / 15.3-17p

04 102-124m / 21.7-22.8p


Bought some more this morning ( in fact switched out of AUW so as not to be too overweight in ILV's )

[gardenboy] 19/3/2003 08:55

LONDON (AFX) - Shares in Amlin made headway amid talk that full-year results
- scheduled for Thursday March 27 - will beat market expectations. Some close
watchers reckon 2002 pretax profits for the Lloyd's insurer could top 45 mln stg
- the consensus being 43 mln.
Amlin shares were 2-1/2 pence firmer at 120 by 8.14 am.

[gardenboy] 17/3/2003 17:09

reinvested some of the profits this morning

[nirvs] 07/3/2003 16:15

still short.

[gardenboy] 07/3/2003 14:18

M.T.Glass

A break below 120 would certainly be negative imo as it appears to be the KEY support level from 2001

[m.t.glass] 07/3/2003 13:03

Anyone who didn't bank their profits when it came down from 130p is gonna see them washed away if it closes below 120p today imo.

[gardenboy] 02/3/2003 10:25

Sunday Telegraph -

Market Miscellany

Amlin is a hold

Amlin has transformed itself over the past three years to become one of the best-rated Lloyd's of London insurance vehicles. Nine days ago, the company announced strong 2000 results for the syndicates it manages and upbeat forecasts for 2001 and 2002.


Amlin has also had an encouraging 2003 renewal season with rate increases in most classes of business. The group pulled off a successful capital-raising last summer, giving it the capacity to write £1bn in new premium income this year. Amlin has a well diversified portfolio including fleet motor, property and aviation insurance divisions.

We first tipped the shares at 84.5p last June and urged investors to keep buying at 104.5p in August. The shares (124p) have performed handsomely with a 45 per cent return. But the continuing good news means there should be more to come. Hold on.

[gardenboy] 22/2/2003 21:40

Don't look at the MACD unless you've got strong nirvs.

[gardenboy] 21/2/2003 18:39

Amlin have had a great run but the share had left the upward trend line before today's fall.
On the basis of the Multex forecasts that I posted, indicating relatively small EPS growth for fiscal 03 despite the well anticipated return to good profits, I sold my shares at 128 - I admit that nirvs gave me the push that I needed to do it!

I think I will be back in some time though, as forecasts do show EPS of over 19p for fiscal 04.

[king rat] 21/2/2003 15:41

Amlin produce a nice trading statement and their shares plummet?

Full marks to nirvs, however.

King Rat

[nirvs] 21/2/2003 09:38

Closed half of HSX for 5.5pts. Still short AML.

Short is looking good. Now in profit.

[99] 20/2/2003 21:30

Anyone know when they are announcing results (Hiscox & Amlin) ?

[dayjob] 20/2/2003 09:27

lol! shorting two of the best prospects in London.

[king rat] 20/2/2003 09:14

Short Amlin and Hiscox just before they announce what should be very good results.

No wonder you're nirvs.

King Rat

[nirvs] 20/2/2003 00:01

The chart shows a lovely divergent macd double top. AML has been in a great uptrend since November, but this seems to be changing. I'm short from 127p

[gardenboy] 19/2/2003 11:10

Forecasts available from Digital Look -

• Broker Forecasts ( Multex)
Fiscal year end: 2002-12-31
Sales per share: 142.00p (0.00p)
EPS: 12.29p (13.10p)
EPS Growth: 0.00% (0.00%)
Dividend: 2.10p (2.23p)

Fiscal year end: 2003-12-31
Sales per share: 189.00p (0.00p)
EPS: 13.86p (13.80p)
EPS Growth: 18.83% (7.81%)
Dividend: 2.27p (2.50p)

Fiscal year end: 2004-12-31
Sales per share: 224.00p (0.00p)
EPS: 19.46p (17.60p)
EPS Growth: 28.68% (17.33%)
Dividend: 2.29p (3.00p)

[vincentvtwin] 20/1/2003 14:59

At the time that Amlin offered to buy Syndicate 2001 capacity the Members´ Agents asked Rothchilds to advise if the offer was reasonable.

Rothchilds, in turn, asked them for their assesment of the syndicate's profitabilty for future years.

I undestand that the estimates were as follows.

Year_2003__2004__2005__2006__2007
High_21.9%_18.2%_14.3%_7.9%_2.7%
Low_18.2%_14.5%_10.2%_4.3%_-1.9%

Amlin itself gave estimates of its syndicate results - a loss of 1.5% at the mid-point for the 2000 account and a loss of 4.5% for the 2001 account.

The 2000 estimates do not seem to have changed but for 2001 the expected result has improved to a mid point loss of 1.5%. (26th November 2002).

But excluding WTC the estimated profit for the 2001 account is a mid point of 13%.

This would suggest that insurance rates had already hardened sufficiently in calender 2001 to enable a reasonable profit. Since then rates have increased considerably.

Not only do I think that the Members´ Agents under estimated the profit potential but also the length of the hard market.

And as 2002 has been rather a benign year for claims so far (not yet fully off risk) I think that Syndicate 2001 could show a 2002 profit of around 20%.

If Numis had been working along the lines of the Members´ Agents profit projections then I'm not surprised to hear that they have upgraded.

But these shares may be held back by problems at Lloyd's. The losses made by some other syndicates in 2000 and 2001 are staggering, Lloyd's management is weak and the Lloyd's market is generally becoming higher risk.

In the short term I think that the renewal of the reinsurance for the International Group of P&I Clubs could be a catalyst for further re-rating of Lloyd's ILV's. I think the contract comes up for renewal on February 20th after 4 years of static rates. I'd be surprised if the Lloyd's syndicates that lead this contract don't go for a substantial increase especially after the Prestige oil spill.

Atrium's syndicate 609 will be heavily involved in the P&I Clubs renewal and Wellington also writes a fair amount of marine liability.

This should be an interesting sector and I hope that I can find the time to do some more research. I currently hold just AML and WUN and would be interested in views on their value relative to the other ILV´s.

[chrissh] 17/1/2003 08:49

Apparently Altium has increased its target price on Amlin from 125p to 192p as stated in the Daily Mail. Numis has also issued a glowing reference to all Lloyds Underwriters. Todays Mail if anyone is interested...

[hodginsjkp] 16/1/2003 12:39

Up again in a down market.
I'm glad that I'm on board!

[gardenboy] 16/1/2003 05:12

AML - 52week high!

[hodginsjkp] 11/1/2003 00:25

Still moving up

[captain swing] 15/12/2002 22:30

Oh don't mind Ash, he puts his nonsense on all the ILV threads. Attention seeking, poor chap.

I was in these for a while -- I won't give entry or exit prices, too embarrassing. It seems one of the steadier ones, hey what I do know. Currently in HSX.