Aston Martin Lagonda Glo... Share Discussion Threads

[gardenboy] 21/2/2003 18:39

Amlin have had a great run but the share had left the upward trend line before today's fall.
On the basis of the Multex forecasts that I posted, indicating relatively small EPS growth for fiscal 03 despite the well anticipated return to good profits, I sold my shares at 128 - I admit that nirvs gave me the push that I needed to do it!

I think I will be back in some time though, as forecasts do show EPS of over 19p for fiscal 04.

[king rat] 21/2/2003 15:41

Amlin produce a nice trading statement and their shares plummet?

Full marks to nirvs, however.

King Rat

[nirvs] 21/2/2003 09:38

Closed half of HSX for 5.5pts. Still short AML.

Short is looking good. Now in profit.

[99] 20/2/2003 21:30

Anyone know when they are announcing results (Hiscox & Amlin) ?

[dayjob] 20/2/2003 09:27

lol! shorting two of the best prospects in London.

[king rat] 20/2/2003 09:14

Short Amlin and Hiscox just before they announce what should be very good results.

No wonder you're nirvs.

King Rat

[nirvs] 20/2/2003 00:01

The chart shows a lovely divergent macd double top. AML has been in a great uptrend since November, but this seems to be changing. I'm short from 127p

[gardenboy] 19/2/2003 11:10

Forecasts available from Digital Look -

• Broker Forecasts ( Multex)
Fiscal year end: 2002-12-31
Sales per share: 142.00p (0.00p)
EPS: 12.29p (13.10p)
EPS Growth: 0.00% (0.00%)
Dividend: 2.10p (2.23p)

Fiscal year end: 2003-12-31
Sales per share: 189.00p (0.00p)
EPS: 13.86p (13.80p)
EPS Growth: 18.83% (7.81%)
Dividend: 2.27p (2.50p)

Fiscal year end: 2004-12-31
Sales per share: 224.00p (0.00p)
EPS: 19.46p (17.60p)
EPS Growth: 28.68% (17.33%)
Dividend: 2.29p (3.00p)

[vincentvtwin] 20/1/2003 14:59

At the time that Amlin offered to buy Syndicate 2001 capacity the Members´ Agents asked Rothchilds to advise if the offer was reasonable.

Rothchilds, in turn, asked them for their assesment of the syndicate's profitabilty for future years.

I undestand that the estimates were as follows.

Year_2003__2004__2005__2006__2007
High_21.9%_18.2%_14.3%_7.9%_2.7%
Low_18.2%_14.5%_10.2%_4.3%_-1.9%

Amlin itself gave estimates of its syndicate results - a loss of 1.5% at the mid-point for the 2000 account and a loss of 4.5% for the 2001 account.

The 2000 estimates do not seem to have changed but for 2001 the expected result has improved to a mid point loss of 1.5%. (26th November 2002).

But excluding WTC the estimated profit for the 2001 account is a mid point of 13%.

This would suggest that insurance rates had already hardened sufficiently in calender 2001 to enable a reasonable profit. Since then rates have increased considerably.

Not only do I think that the Members´ Agents under estimated the profit potential but also the length of the hard market.

And as 2002 has been rather a benign year for claims so far (not yet fully off risk) I think that Syndicate 2001 could show a 2002 profit of around 20%.

If Numis had been working along the lines of the Members´ Agents profit projections then I'm not surprised to hear that they have upgraded.

But these shares may be held back by problems at Lloyd's. The losses made by some other syndicates in 2000 and 2001 are staggering, Lloyd's management is weak and the Lloyd's market is generally becoming higher risk.

In the short term I think that the renewal of the reinsurance for the International Group of P&I Clubs could be a catalyst for further re-rating of Lloyd's ILV's. I think the contract comes up for renewal on February 20th after 4 years of static rates. I'd be surprised if the Lloyd's syndicates that lead this contract don't go for a substantial increase especially after the Prestige oil spill.

Atrium's syndicate 609 will be heavily involved in the P&I Clubs renewal and Wellington also writes a fair amount of marine liability.

This should be an interesting sector and I hope that I can find the time to do some more research. I currently hold just AML and WUN and would be interested in views on their value relative to the other ILV´s.

[chrissh] 17/1/2003 08:49

Apparently Altium has increased its target price on Amlin from 125p to 192p as stated in the Daily Mail. Numis has also issued a glowing reference to all Lloyds Underwriters. Todays Mail if anyone is interested...

[hodginsjkp] 16/1/2003 12:39

Up again in a down market.
I'm glad that I'm on board!

[gardenboy] 16/1/2003 05:12

AML - 52week high!

[hodginsjkp] 11/1/2003 00:25

Still moving up

[captain swing] 15/12/2002 22:30

Oh don't mind Ash, he puts his nonsense on all the ILV threads. Attention seeking, poor chap.

I was in these for a while -- I won't give entry or exit prices, too embarrassing. It seems one of the steadier ones, hey what I do know. Currently in HSX.

[peto] 15/12/2002 22:20

Share just tipped in last issue Moneyweek.
Concerned that Mr (Mr??!) Ashley James is ramping this 'un though, his record on CMR a wee while back doesn't inspire confidence.

[hodginsjkp] 12/12/2002 12:27

Good looking chart with significant upside continuing breakout support!!!!!

[mr ashley james] 09/12/2002 08:23

CAT,

Robbie should like this up 3.50p

Cheers

Ash

[mr ashley james] 02/12/2002 07:54

CAT,

Up 1p so far.

Cheers

Ash

[cat] 26/11/2002 10:03

look stonking

[mr ashley james] 26/11/2002 00:06

Pyman,

Amlin Plc AML up nicely today 4p or 4.10%
Wellington Underwriting Plc WUN up 2p or 2.10%

It seems ABN Amro Hoare Govett are having a good day.

Best regards

Ashley

[king rat] 17/9/2002 16:51

pyman,

"... how long will current conditions be maintained?" That's the million dollar question. Everyone will have a different view, and their views will vary across business classes.

My view is that motor has peaked and the market will do well to increase premiums to match claim inflation in 2003. I don't expect rates to drop significantly, however, because the composites have better things to do with their capital than use it to fund a price war.

In the London market, the more commoditised parts of the business, such as property XL treaties, may already have peaked. Massive amounts of capital went into Bermuda last year and is now competing for a share of this business, which will drive prices down.

It is different for Lloyd's traditional, hard to place, specialist business. I expect rates to continue to increase significantly in these sectors, particularly for the casualty classes.

Overall, I expect the hard market to continue through to 2004, before we see a distinct downturn. Lessons have been learnt in recent years, however, and I anticipate that vastly improved underwriting controls will prevent recurrence of the depths seen in trough of the last cycle.

Regards.

King Rat

[pyman] 17/9/2002 16:30

Thanks King Rat-another question if I may-are the LV's enjoying such good markets largely because the capacity that normally arrives after good premium hikes has this time not materialsied? is this because the composites are all in a mess and can't write new business? I suppose i'm wanting to know how long will current conditions be maintained.

[pav 1] 16/9/2002 10:15

What is up with this stock big trades going through this morning.