Aston Martin Lagonda Glo... Share Discussion Threads

[paddyfool] 03/9/2003 13:30

Amlin moving along nicely, tomoorows results should not dissapoint.

[cyberian] 01/9/2003 10:44

Guess the RSA rights issue has effected the sector and certainly AML. However, the MM's appear to be keeping the offered high as one senses that the company has already flagged some good results. Thursday will see whether they are even better than expected and that the trend/forecast for next year and longer continues. Again the fall coincides late last week with rumour of the RSA rights and that has continued today.

[cyberian] 31/8/2003 01:39

Have just returned from a 10 day break, and so catching-up on the recent price movements. I think perhaps the sight of two major institutions selling down slightly may have caused some reaction...but that happens all the time and is not significant in the medium picture. Both remain substantial holders and not really a concern. However, we do need to get through the 137p level again to help move to higher ground...results due out Thurday but believe company has internal meetings earlier in the week so we may see some positive signs sooner. Anyway, must look for indication of future profile from management to determine whether a more favourable re-rating can be justified. I was about to add that the major fund managers should buy some insurance in these uncertain times... but they can see whether their portfolio has sufficient weighting in a sector which is at last showing some solid earnings growth. Also with AML one can see a much improved management and approach to their mix of cover.

[ursus] 30/8/2003 00:52

i was just about to buy until i read that piece of tea-leafery.

[royal trader] 30/8/2003 00:23

hello all,

the reason for the current drop is that we have encountered resistance @ 145p set in 1998. The fact that the stock was also overbought resulted in the current fall in price.

However dont expect the rsi to go back to very oversold positions. The results are out on the 4th of September and more importantly there is support at 134p

Imo, good buy at current levels and there will more than likely be some great leaps in price towards results day.

[hamilkar] 28/8/2003 19:58

Samansh - My feelings exactly. I attribute it to the market sentiment rather than this individual share. Current broker forecasts show a 30.40% rise in EPS for this year ending Dec 2003 followed by a 32.14% rise in EPS for the year ending Dec 2004. There are not too many about in the FTSE 250 presently with those forecasts. You should also note the recent upbeat statement issued on 15th August. The recent breakout (see my note of 21st August) is a classic and IMO we are about to see a test of that breakout. When it turns I think it will turn quickly so those not already in should set alerts on this share and buy on the bounce. If you can't watch it then if you can get it for 135 or thereabouts it is a strong buy. Certainly a buy before the interims on the 4th.

[samansh] 28/8/2003 15:46

Even when Amlin has been tipped by number of brokers and its fair price value has been estimated somewhere between 165-170, I don't understand why the stock is moving down. People should be buying this stock ahead of company's interim results on 4-Sep-2003.

[hamilkar] 21/8/2003 13:22

As mentioned by Cyberian and Gardenboy the chart is looking very strong. The breakout on 15.08.03 through a resistance line going back to 15.01.03 was a classic gap up accompanied by heavy volume. This is one of the most reliable type of breakout to higher ground. My calculation is that this means a rise to around 162. Hopefully those who have read my recent comments on Broadcastle, WSP and Dyson Group will take note and now look more closely at AMLIN.

[gardenboy] 15/8/2003 18:41

dayjob,

AML own 78% of capacity this year - so 860m is right - (100% from next year)

cyberian,

chart is good - was no. 1 in Investtech top 50 last night!

[cyberian] 15/8/2003 10:43

Purely on a chart signal we have broken the critical 138.5p level and that bodes well. The count-back, current, and future growth appears encouraging with the news release this morning.

[paddyfool] 15/8/2003 09:00

dayjob,
You are right the liklehood it will be the upper end. 2002 is earning well accross the piece in the market. I think there is some way togo good luck.

[dayjob] 15/8/2003 08:52

gardenboy, re. that afx - i'm not sure it's right that Amlin's share is 860m, i thought plc owned 60% of the 1.1bn - the difference between 860m and 1.1bn being qqs. can anyone confirm?

Figures for 2002 u/w year in the range 12 - 17%. I'm sure they are understating this at the moment. If it's 17% (i reckon 20% would be nearer) then 136m, of which plc have 72.3% = £98.33m, less (say) 25% expenses = £73.75m. That's more than double the current consensus forecast for 31/12/03, or 19p per share or p/e 7.36. Tempted to top up.

[gardenboy] 15/8/2003 07:45

LONDON (AFX) - Amlin PLC said it is is continuing to experience good trading
conditions in all of its principal lines of business.
Syndicate 2001 has 1.1 bln stg of capacity in the current year, of which 860
mln is Amlin's share.
The syndicate's gross written premium (net of brokerage) was 634 mln in the
six months to June 30 2003, up 22 pct over 2002.
Referring to forecasts it said the second quarter forecasts for the 2001 and
2002 years of account are unchanged from those made after the first quarter.
It added the 2001 year of account continues to develop in line with
expectations.
The 2002 year of account has benefited from low loss incidence to date.
Underlying improvements in the quarter have been partially offset by exchange
rate movements.
A substantial amount of business remains on risk for this year, but Amlin
expects the forecast to improve if a normal level of loss development is
experienced for the remainder of the year.
Charles Philipps stated "2003 continues to develop well and business written
in previous years remains in line with our expectations. We are increasingly
confident about the financial outcome for this year and look forward with
optimism."

[cyberian] 13/8/2003 09:41

I maybe wrong but re-casting trades on Monday from ADVFN believe the MM's could be short well over 1 million shares (even 1.5 million). However, they may have built-up a holding in anticipation of demand if presentation given by the company was well received. Still, whatever, one should see a convincing run up and through the 1H results on 3/9.....even a bit of a re-rating?

[rambutan2] 12/8/2003 12:53

cyberian, hsx always seems to valued more highly than other ilvs. fairer comparison is bre and wun. aml seems to fall somewhere between those 2 looking at current pe projections. but all too cheap and almost certain to beat forecasts.

[cyberian] 12/8/2003 11:33

Paddyfool....thanks for that input which was very clear and makes sense. Understand that company gave a presentation yesterday to brokers etc. and hence the activity in the shares. Apparently the presentation was very positive, business is growing, solid base, and team very professional.

[paddyfool] 12/8/2003 10:51

Cyberian,
There is next to no chance of major players consolidating in this sector. The reason being that the major players all have similar portfolios of business and their constraint on being bigger is the amount of capital they have. Therefore if they are looking to step up in size they will go the markets for capital. The big players will acquire small niche players from time to time but they will not make a large impact. In fact the way things are done in this market is that you aquire the underwriting team and not the company if you are interested in moving into a line of business, its so much easier and cheaper than having to take the gamble that there is nothing lurking in the books which will bite you later (dont mention due diligence and all that as it almost always fails to unearth these issues). I hope that helps. imho dyor etc.

[cyberian] 12/8/2003 10:26

I am looking for something in excess of 20% return on shareholders funds seeing that the company's capacity has increased considerably since last year. I wonder if it makes any sense for the sector to consolidate. The pause in yesterdays excitement was to be expected so as long as we hold this higher level as a firm base prospects are encouraging. Any ideas as to what caused the sudden level of trading/interest yesterday?

[paddyfool] 12/8/2003 09:24

If this ILV is doing even half decently then its certain that the results will suprise. Anyone holding an ILV not 'suprising' at half year will need to look to their management and underwriting team and ask why? This sector is experiencing its best trading conditiond in living memory and yet is no where near its historic valuations.

[qas27] 12/8/2003 01:33

Amlin 137 up 5

'Good value, and may surprise with results Sept 4' - Bridgewell 'overweight'

Do you think the results will be any good, and if so what are your realistic price targets?

[gardenboy] 11/8/2003 15:08

looks like a breakout at last!

[cyberian] 11/8/2003 15:04

Good rise so far today...again I need to do ore research to see whether correct to compare AMLIN with HISCOX (HSX) as the latter has a market cap of £438 million against that of £535 million for AML. The market commentators suggest that AML is gaining from excellent market conditions and this is endorsed by the board who appear quite confident. An interesting situation and again AML looks a gainer in being a fairly solid and safe investment, with good growth potential for at least the next 2/3 years. DYOR

[cyberian] 10/8/2003 11:56

Just had a look at yesterday's FT and observed that Hiscox sells on a PE of 22 which is more than twice that of AML. They are very similar I believe, although AML has about double the underwriting capacity/leverage of HSX. Begs the question as to whether that is why we are starting to see a more favourable rise in AML shares. With figures expected to be even better than last year and set for first week of next month the price looks set to improve. DYOR

[cyberian] 07/8/2003 18:30

See the company returned over 20% earnings on shareholders funds last year and the board indicated that their market sector looks very favourable over next 2/3 years. Even better returns can be expected with results due early next month....so the increase in trades on the buy side were modestly encouraging.