Amerisur Resources Share Discussion Threads

[rollthedice] 05/2/2019 11:40

Platanillo may now be a mature field but having produced c11m barrels it can hardly be described as a failure/jam tomorrow although the N sands upside looks questionable after Pintadillo-1.

[mjones727] 05/2/2019 11:38

Way overvalued.

[thegreatgeraldo] 05/2/2019 11:16

tyler durden1
5 Feb '19 - 08:28 - 16949 of 16966
0 9 0


Institutions may believe the jam tomorrow is the same jam tomorrow at Fenix, Plat, Paraguay, and it will take some demonstrating by success in Amerisur producing because as it stands Amerisur's efforts on Plat do not give confidence.

..Read your tale of historic woes..... I assume you're long out of this stock, yet continue to pop up from time to time. Thank you for your continued interest...

[lauders] 05/2/2019 11:08

Nobody knows the real reason but it can't last for much longer. Famous last words? I certainly hope not being an investor in AMER! The part that caught my attention in the interview was along the lines of "The time has come when we will see well after well". Now that sounded really good and if it comes to pass and the results of each well are positive (JW did state that all wells aren't successes when it comes to the oil/gas industry) then the share price should react positively accordingly.

[charlieeee] 05/2/2019 11:02

ONGC ARE the operator of CPO-5.

OXY were sufficiently satisfied of AMER' competency to farm in whilst leaving AMER as operator.

[sogoesit] 05/2/2019 10:34

Appreciate the point of view tylerdurden, post 16949.

Overall that is a worrying perception of this company.
However, imv this isn't surprising for an AIM E&P company.
In general, E&P people are poor managers in my experience (and this tends towards the bigger companies as well). One need only to look across the AIM E&P sector and read commentary on ADVFN of the preceptions of managements to see this is the case.
The most successful growth start-up in the recent decades has been Tullow.
Tullow's founder, Aidan Haevey, is an accountant.

Good coprorate leadership is rare, and more rare still in the E&P sector, imv.

Having said that, my long this stock is based on CPO-5 and CPO-5 alone. I consider the rest of the assets as a free carry. The planning for 2019 by management bears this out. Perhaps, internally, the company recognises it is not a capable operator and has acted to farm-out operatorships into more capable hands? This occurs frequently in the mining industry where explorers hand-over to operators once feasibility proves an investment case and the price of dilution is loss of control.

If the undervaluation continues maybe a better owner of AMER's CPO-5 would be GPRK or ONGC itslef? Otherwise my investment requires patience to pay off.

[swerves1] 05/2/2019 10:30

Kaos - all true.
PLUS over $50m cash in the bank!

[kaos3] 05/2/2019 10:13

Lucy my friend you make my day by using word - respectfully

and you are right

but do not forget
BOD ride 2 horses - shares and compensations
we just one.
If we hypothetically loose - we lose 100%. They do not.
Net back to them from amer is still respect full even if all goes bust.

incentives, logic ... are different when one thinks of it in the stat math terms

we do not get regular cash flow from amer

so we have different risk profile and aligned just to a certain degree

[lucyp00p] 05/2/2019 10:06

I would respectfully point out that John Wardle probable owns more shares than you and he's buying. Furthermore, should any of the board decide to sell, that information would reach us sooner than any production data....ergo I am confident and don't need constant updates to keep me coming back for more.

[tom111] 05/2/2019 10:05

better than my 2p lol

[kaos3] 05/2/2019 10:00

but their communication/reporting/predictions sucks and make it impossible to evaluate the real situation in time to react as an investor which makes it a high risk investment.

risks of missing buying and selling in time - both sides - due to being not proper informed

hence I did not buy as strong as I otherwise would. and hence I am in red by 1 p lol

[lbrokes] 05/2/2019 09:58

This is the big one

[kaos3] 05/2/2019 09:57

They are set:

good CPO 5, and further LLanos discoveries unaccounted for
low cost of production makes it POO resistant
good tax etc regime
BOD bought in droves
they are not going M&A
OBA is still a potential
institutions are interested
OXY put in 90 mil and are not stupid
no debt
cash needs are covered by ongoing production
fast development/progress
oil at reasonable prices
high quality oil
Mariposa has a much higher production potential
CEO speaks to el Presidente
....

[lucyp00p] 05/2/2019 09:49

TD, while I agree you have a point, you are as guilty of oversimplifying historic events as the company were in predicting progress back in the day. JW made the point about the painfully slow approval process yesterday, and has acknowledged past expectations were unduly optimistic, however, the future is bright, reserves are set to rise and prospects are the regulatory process is finally unglued. 3 years ago, a company with nothing but prospects and meagre production was trading at 35p, with the oil price languishing at $30. Now, we have an incredibly healthy stake in CPO5, acquired for beads and shiny baubles, a sponsor for new exploration and the oil price steady around $60. I'm afraid, CREDIBILITY is an inadequate explanation for the current languishing share price Nobody knows the real reason but it can't last for much longer.

[davwal] 05/2/2019 09:40

One thing occurred to me rather late in the day was why did investors only get official confirmation that Plat was now stuck in low orbit rather than heading off into the promised 10,000+ bopd solar system via an interview with Mr Blobby? - which I’m pretty sure was one of the reasons for doing the thing. With no preceding RNS properly explaining matters it seems a bit crafty to me...

[kipper62] 05/2/2019 09:15

Yes Tyler, your 'Amerisur on the other hand have overpromised, underdelivered' has not only destroyed the confidence many time of us LTH's, but left potential investors wondering whether this time it really is the big one, or simply 'we've heard it all before'. I have no disagreement with the potential available, but need convincing of the management's ability to deliver.

[rollthedice] 05/2/2019 09:01

I feel more upbeat on AMER overall but Platanillo/Pintodillo are clearly on the backburner being nursed along to provide baseline production. N/T/U sands and further wells at Pintodillo are clearly not happening, at least not in 2019, with just $0.9m assigned.

If CPO-5 well programme meets expectations and later the PUTs along with revenues from the OBA the picture looks pretty rosy but that's a few big IFs. Initially the new reserves will just offset reductions in core licences and new production just make up shortfall against previous production targets so not expecting fireworks.

I am tempted to add but suspect we may get an option at lower share price before next well results are known.

[knackers] 05/2/2019 08:56

I hear you Tyler, but that's an overly simplistic and dare I say default PI-armchair assessment.

Platanillo is no longer the spring chicken it was but will continue to function at solid base production (maybe more) for many years to come - and with such a low x factor it works and will continue to throw off cash until CPO5 fully eclipses things. Which it will. Then there's Put in late 1H I sense we're very close now. Things then take-off.

In short, yes it sure helps BIG TIME, but Platanillo is certainly NOT the principle driver behind my investment decision, nor I hazard will it be for other LTers.

[treasure] 05/2/2019 08:40

TylerD
The institutions will be looking at making money big on the new stuff whether your right about them being apprehensive they won't want to miss out on a big payday surely they are not that stupid. Share price does not reflect potential. I'm sure institutions forgave BP for the GOM issues. It seemed clear to me that they are going to spend the money where it can make a bigger monetisation more quickly that it could with plat. I'm more interested now with next week not this week. If there is such a thing with the share price being held back then after the big guy has done the rounds this week the II's get in on the cheap and protect the share price However do respect your opinion but more I think about yesterday than tomorrow which is why I invested.

[tyler durden1] 05/2/2019 08:28

Seller(s) YES.

Why?

In my opinion much of it is about one word CREDIBILITY

Its all well and good Amerisur now virtually admitting problems with Plat but the institutions and Rex had presentations singing its praises and about how much oil there was there and on several occasions after a poster posted about problems there, Amerisur allegedly refuted those allegations completely.

Institutions don't forget easily, and even with CPO-5, they look back and remember platanillo, remember Fenix, remember Paraguay.

ONGC have demonstrated the ability to make a good find and bring it to production.

Amerisur on the other hand have overpromised, underdelivered on almost all their assets and even with the OBA that claims to have paid for itself, investors were given the impression it was going to be 'transformational', yet how could that be if they knew they were having problems with plat production, and where now it looks like tacit admission that production will bump along there, with nothing like the potential previously suggested and where the pipeline was delayed to increase its capacity to some 10 times what Plat is expected to bump along at, and even the 5,000bopd initial maximum, hardly ever met, yet why then the expenditure on Chiritza to 9,000 and still some way off the 50,000bopd capacity the pipeline was increased to, which investors a rather blurred view of the potential at plat.

Yes, ONGC find is great. YES the deal to farm out is great, but looking at the presentation about how 'value creation' has been $293.5m, its a virtual figure, means nothing without success and production from it.

No doubt the $293.5m will be used in calculating LTIP awards.

With Capex at $.9m for Platanillo, it clearly has no more drilling to be undertaken, rather suggesting there were problems there as a poster once posted, but which was refuted entirely.

Institutions may believe the jam tomorrow is the same jam tomorrow at Fenix, Plat, Paraguay, and it will take some demonstrating by success in Amerisur producing because as it stands Amerisur's efforts on Plat do not give confidence.

[gersemi] 05/2/2019 08:05

1 v 1 (600 v 24600)

388k v 1.08m

still seller heavy

[westmoreland lad] 04/2/2019 21:12

Chuffing heck Lucy ----------> u got 7 tick ups !! dats your record !

Keep up the good work mi old mucker ;-)

Lucyp00p
4 Feb '19 - 17:20 - 16938 of 16945

[jp2011] 04/2/2019 20:41

Some interesting stuff about CPO5, enough targets to last 3-4 years, just a shame they can't throw the kitchen sink at everything.

[siriusbizness] 04/2/2019 19:26

Yes I believe when the price action starts it will move quickly upwards.

Podgy, you forgot the new presentation. No new news but all the facts very well presented. Today was all about reinforcing the value and building confidence