Amerisur Resources Share Discussion Threads

[davwal] 29/7/2019 08:27

Ashkv - nut job - filtered

[ashkv] 29/7/2019 08:26

REPOST FOR NEW COMERS TO AMERISUR - APOLOGIES TO THOSE WHO MIGHT HAVE REVIEWED PRIOR - Thank you.

Stifel Analysts think share price is minimum 37p - AND STIFEL IS ONE OF THE ADVISORS MANDATED FOR STRATEGIC REVIEW - SO HOPEFULLY THE CAN WORK THEIR DEAL MAKING MAGIC TO GET US APPROPRIATE VALUE :)

Steifel's last NAV breakdown table for AMER is there too - worth looking at


Continuous H2 2019 drilling programme in CPO-5: We carry the exploration &
appraisal upside at CPO-5 at 18p/shr risked in our 37p NAV (70p unrisked; Figure 1).
The attraction of the licence is: (i) moderate geological risk (75% success rate to date),
(ii) rapid discovery-to-monetisation timeline, a matter of days/weeks, and (iii) benign, lowcost
operating environment both in terms of capex, opex and oil exports.
• Appraisal up next, could add 20% to group production: As previously announced, the next well at CPO-5 will be appraisal of the Indico discovery, with a result expected in ~August (Indico-2). Prior wells have flowed 3-5 kb/d (gross); at the mid-point and net to AMER's 30% working interest, the contribution to group revenue of a success would therefore be around 20% of our estimate of underlying FY19 group production (5.9 kb/d).
• H2 2019 activity on the block could add ~50% to group reserves: The schedule beyond Indico-2 is yet to be determined, but success at the well might encourage further back-to-back drilling on the structure. Indico's upside is c.50M bbls (70 vs current 2P of 23), so, net to 30% working interest, adds of ~15M bbls would equate to ~50% of group reserves.
• Sol testing to complete first: Amerisur expects to wrap up testing of the Sol well in the next couple of weeks. As announced on June 17, the well found 27 feet of net pay, which is some way below the two other successes in the block (100 ft +). Nevertheless, the commercial threshold here is low, and we would expect the well to be put into commercial production even were it to achieve a rate of a few hundred barrels per day.
Production guide reiterated; we are top end: 2019E guidance of 5-6 kb/d looks achievable vs. June daily production 6.8 kb/d, despite a modest first quarter that saw 5M production average 5.3 kb/d. Current guidance excludes any exploration success.

[ashkv] 29/7/2019 08:26

REPOST FOR NEWBIES

Amazing value waiting to be tapped in Amerisur -30p+ should be cheap as chips for an acquirer!!!!

FT Alphaville free to register -
and not only is there the written analysis from Stifel on the live blog but also a pic of the detailed Risked & Unrisked Valuation per Stifel Analysts

For CORE NAV Stifel has on a Risked Basis for Amerisur p/share (on a net basis) -
Plat 1P -> 5.4p per share
CPO5 (Mariposa) -> 0.5p
CPO5 (Indico) -> 4.1p
Occidental Carry -> 2.5p
OBA Pipeline (2K Bpd 3rd Party) -> 0.9p
Adjusted Net Debt/Cash -> 3.2p
Total Risked Core Value = 17p (Unrisked 18p)
Plat Probable -> 2p per share (Unrisked 4p)
CPO5 Drills + Upside Net to Amerisur (Risked) -> 18.3p of which Sol only 0.4p (Unrisked 69.5p)
CPO5 Potential + Core NAV + Plat = 37.3P per Share according to Stifel
Other Blocks on Chance of Success (Occidental Farmed Out 50% + Amerisur 100%)(Risked) -> 27p (Unrisked 85p)

Therefore Total NAV per share on a Risked Basis is 64p & Unrisked is 176p

I would be over the moon with Stifel Target price of 35p per published analysis prior to them suspending coverage as they are involved in deal!!!

[bountyhunter] 29/7/2019 08:21

Thanks Boatman, 2 months sounds more like it.

Edit, or even a bit less as above, can't imagine they will be dragging their feet on this one!

[xxnjr] 29/7/2019 08:21

ONGC rig moves on CPO-5 do seem unfathomably slow!
From 4 wells drilled, once spud :-

Spud to TD is about 30 days.
Logging etc about 10 days.
Testing about 22 days.

Sol took longer as threw in an ESP.

[ashkv] 29/7/2019 08:20

On another board this character Rosanan seldom posts and that too when he does it is on penny shares - and all of a sudden he is all over Amerisur discussions on various media.

Very very odd to me - why would a holder harp on about his max being 25p. Btw 25p is the last capital raise for Amerisur in 2016 when Brent at multi-decade lows - WOULD BE AN ADMISSION OF ABJECT FAILURE ON MANAGEMENT's PART SHOULD THEY ACCEPT SUCH A LOW BALL OFFER - A REAL LET DOWN FOR THE 2016 INVESTORS.

Getting back to original purpose of posting - I would take whatever this character Rosanan states with a grain of salt as he does appear to have an ulterior agenda of anchoring top price at 25p. Might be conspiracy theory like on my part - but where money is involved nothing is out of the question....

Below is what I post each time he chimes in with his negativity on the other board.

[bountyhunter] 29/7/2019 08:20

However given the circumstances this could be given high priority and if oil is encountered before target depth we could get an early update in light of the sales process.

[yasrub] 29/7/2019 08:20

I think if a bid is received before Indico-2 surely a provision can be included based on drill result.

[boatman123] 29/7/2019 08:19

2 months , if ongc release initial flow rates , as they did with indigo 1

[marioboss] 29/7/2019 08:09

Is there a legal deadline by which a takeover process must be completed/cancelled?

[bountyhunter] 29/7/2019 08:08

rossannan, do you have a link for that or is it a guess?

The outcome of Indico-2 is of huge significance potentially transformational and given the Indico-1 outcome I think bidders will wish to wrap up the sales process before Indico-2 potentially hits oil which can be anticipated well before target depth.

[pauliewonder] 29/7/2019 08:03

Do t think that minor update has anything to do with the final takeout price as it was expected to be fairly nominal. Next drill is the big one and could add substantial value

[xxnjr] 29/7/2019 08:03

On current form, I'd go for 22p to 25p.

[bountyhunter] 29/7/2019 08:02

How long? The drill is imminent.
The result could be massively significant.

[bountyhunter] 29/7/2019 07:40

Yes, finally on to the extremely important Indico-2 drill...

"The CPO-5 drilling program continues with the Indico-2 appraisal well, once the rig arrives from the Sol location. The Indico field was discovered in December 2018 where the Indico-1 discovery well found 283 feet gross, 209 feet net oil column in the LS3 sands and no indication of an Oil-Water-Contact (OWC). The objective of Indico-2 includes increasing production and to test the extent of the OWC to better define field reserves (22.7 MMBO 2P gross reserves announced 22 January 2019 based on independent analysis by McDaniels and Associates)."

[xxnjr] 29/7/2019 07:40

Implied Monthly Prod Nos

Jan: 5255
Feb: 4195
Mar: 4571
Apr: 6060
May: 6481
June: 6657

6*5537 =33222(A)
5*5313 =26565(B)
[A-B=6657]

The dip in Feb/Mar, as mentioned by rollthedice above, was primarily due to Indico-1 being choked back at times whilst Calao was drilling from same pad.