Amerisur Resources Share Discussion Threads

[lauders] 17/7/2019 02:31

A very helpful/interesting post from "Wait" over on the AMER LSE BB yesterday IMO:

This map is a good reminder for just how big, and how good a location CPO-5 is. CPO-5 is numbered 0193 on the map



Shows the trend line of producing fields (in red) in the llanos basin pointing towards CPO-5. Also shows CPO-5 in relation to the recently bought blocks in dark green.

Useful also to show how big the Indico structure alone is, compared to the size of the other blocks.

Big block in a great location. Just wish they brought in another rig or two.

[davwal] 16/7/2019 23:00

Never 10,000 bopd..?

August 2017 OBA figures (from RNS 4 Sept)

OBA Export

· Total export volume was 182,529 BO during the Period.
· Average daily throughput was 5,888 bopd during the Period.
· Peak daily throughput was 10,127 bopd during the Period.
· 1 millionth barrel exported through OBA during the Period.


Negotiations with Petroamazonas EP in Ecuador to increase export volumes via the OBA are progressing well, which, together with systems optimisations, enabled the Company to achieve average daily OBA throughput during the month of in excess of 5,000bopd, peaking at over 10,000 bopd.

Those were the days, or rather that was the day....

[lucyp00p] 16/7/2019 19:41

Ok, sorry about that. But to put the operational quality of our BOD into perspective, here's my two penneth.About 8 years ago, Amerisur agreed to build an OBA pipeline capable of transporting 7k barrels per day from the field. Planning approvals were received and work commenced. We were a happy bunch. 6 months or so into the project, work was halted as our extraordinarily talented bunch of shoot for the moon execs decided to upscale capacity 10 fold to 70k. This delay cost millions and millions in added transport costs and 18 months to the OBA project. Here we are, 8 years later, having added another $4 million building a pumping station we have yet to utilise, rejoicing that we have hit 5k of throughput. Happy days.Oh, and for what it's worth, those genius minds rewarded themselves with zero cost share options for their foresight and expertise even before our OBA had been connected.The best thing Amerisur could do now is shut down the operation that is clearly costing millions in "overhead", sell all licences on all real estate partly owned by Oxy to Oxy and collect the cash from sales out of CPO5. I don't know what the profit is on 1,500 barrels of free oil per day, but it's a damn site more than we're ever going to get digging holes in the ground. (Actually it's about $25 million every year, or more.

[kaos3] 16/7/2019 18:24

10k tested probably

[fadilz] 16/7/2019 18:21

Never 10k afaik. End 2017 was 7.2k, of which 6.2 was Platanillo. That 6.2 fell steadily to 1.7 in Feb 2019. I think they let Plat slip because they thought the N-Sands would come in, and they didn't.

Not much point arguing the toss on this as you are in a determined funk - though often amusing. Would 10k end of year please you? Let's see.

[moneylender] 16/7/2019 17:32

From NH today,

"CPO5 down to the operator who move at a snails pace".

[kaos3] 16/7/2019 17:28

new paradigm is needed at amer

[rollthedice] 16/7/2019 16:49

Sp sub 12p as expected, finishing on daily low of 11.88.

Sol-1 must be imminent* so hopefully share price will get a boost although it'll just retrace again anyway. Share needs something major but my crystal ball doesn't show anything likely this year.

Holding more in stubbornness than expectation at the moment :(


*AMER imminent = not imminent at all

[fadilz] 16/7/2019 14:22

OBA fallen back again for two days, following the 900 b/d increase. Interpretation: Plat-22 testing, followed by a shut-in and pressure build-up. Same pattern as for Plat-26. If this is right, expect OBA to increase back to 5000 over the next couple of days. Would be a very good result!!

[kaos3] 16/7/2019 10:01

while waiting I am trying to think - AMER is fracturing its operations in a way - own drilling, pipeline, different partners

at an increasing pace - and so long - so good

there is a "need" to get the "act together" in the future imho

my preferred option would be to outsource most, including current BOD functions and get a free cash flow streams. outsourcing most risks and capital needs

freed resources can be then used for Giles and JW - for what they are good at - spotting opportunities and deal making - but AFTER shareholders get their cut.

some entities are much better operators - why do we have to do it alone? and by our deeds we are saying so as well

otherwise it can be perpetual hope and future

operations model as it is in precious metals industry

as I am thick it would be easier for me to follow amer and I would be getting royal cash divi

[xxnjr] 16/7/2019 09:44

Bliss would be a successful outcome in the Putumayo Heavy Oil Play, medium to long term as it is. According to ANH 2012 Bid Round, P50 Upside Potential for conventional crude/heavy crude in the Putumayo Basin was as follows:-

Conventional: 137 mmbo
Heavy Crude: 5794 mmbo

Conventional is the stuff GTE/Amerisur etc have been drilling so far.
Heavy Crude presumably what piqued OXY's interest.

Put 30 AMER 100% might have some farm out potential, with 151.5 mmbo, which is probably mainly heavy oil?

".....The block has Cretaceous exploration potential in line with the adjoining Andaquies block (Amerisur 100%) and additionally has a recognised Tertiary Play concept. The Company will evaluate the potential of producible heavy oil deposits in the Neme formation."

If Amerisur farmed out 50% for $??m, the remaining 75.8 mmbo, at a piffling $2.50 NPV/bbl, 5% COS equates to

Risked: 0.6p per share
Unrisked: 12p per share

[kaos3] 16/7/2019 09:00

take the finger out AMER. some of us have a different idea what a bliss is

[knackers] 15/7/2019 17:32

...and CPO5 seemingly a stealth fighter flying undetected straight through the middle of the lobe!

[xxnjr] 15/7/2019 10:22

Lucy,

Nobody knows if there is any oil in that heavy oil play OXY are after in Teracay and Tacacho. There are only a few scant 2D lines of seismic on those blocks.

Initial volume estimates are therefore a stab in the dark.
Could be nothing. Could be huge.

FWIW Amerisur's numbers for imagined prospective upside are

Teracay 125.65 mmbo for our 50% w/int
Tacacho 66.95 mmbo for our 50% w/int

OXY surely believe the story.

If I plug in above volumes, and assume $2.50/bbl NPV and a 5% CoS, spreadsheet returns

Risked 1.52p/share
Un-risked 30.47p/share just for Teracay/Tecacho.

These blocks are still under the radar.

[lucyp00p] 15/7/2019 09:56

That is such a good question. Along with "how does a company trading in US$ manage to lose $2.576 million on forex deals? When all expenses in local currency are already stated at converted rates in the p&l" The answer is by not drilling for oil but we will never know the truth.

[bryet] 15/7/2019 09:43

The truth is there is nothing at the end of a rainbow.

[xxnjr] 15/7/2019 09:35

Corruption? Yep, it's ranked 99 of 180 on the list


Despite that, the ANH seem to run a very fair, and transparent Bid Round process.

[xxnjr] 15/7/2019 09:22

My knowledge of the accounts section is severely lacking. All I can add is they seem to run a conservative balance sheet. This came in handy during the last oil price crash. Amerisur leveraged their relative balance sheet strength at that time, to pick up acreage on attractive terms, left, right and centre from financially distressed sellers. Without that balance sheet strength, without that land grab, there wouldn't have been an OXY farm in.

Don't know if BoD's real aim is to flog off the company. Time will tell.

My feeling is current arrangements are inadequate for scale of what may be about to happen on their OXY assets.

Surely Amerisur will have to beef up financial/technical capability?
That would probably require a new finance guy, and a new chief operating officer.
JW may not want to give up the reins.

[tyler durden1] 15/7/2019 09:20

There is a rainbow and if you follow the rainbow at the end there is a crock of Amerisur's cash.

Bursts into song "Somewhere over the rainbow"

[kaos3] 15/7/2019 08:56

where is amers cash ??

anyone

[the drewster] 15/7/2019 08:45

Cash management is important, but as a shareholder, I want to see the cash put to use to generate returns, not just sit gathering dust. The last 4 years makes interesting reading:

Cash & cash equivalents evolution: Market Cap c.£145m ($182m) meaning that over 24% of the market cap is accounted for in cash.

Year ended 2018 - announced 9th April 2019 - cash $44.1M (Finance income $538k, but Finance Charges of $541k in the accounts)
Half year ended June ‘18: announced 13th September 2018 - $49.3M (Finance income $208k, but Finance Charges of $178k in the accounts)

Year ended 2017 - announced 16th April 2018 - cash $41.3M (Finance income $284k, but Finance Charges of $1.62M in the accounts)
Half year ended June ‘17: announced 25th September 2017 - $29M (Finance income $165k, but Finance Charges of $922k in the accounts)

Year ended 2016 - announced 10th April 2017 - cash $42M (Finance income $289k, but Finance Charges of $1.97M in the accounts)
Half year ended June ‘16 - announced 15th September 2016 - $56.1M (Finance income $96k, but Finance Charges of $947k in the accounts)

Year ended 2015 - announced 9th April 2016 - cash $42M (Finance charge for year $2.77M)
Half year ended June ‘15 - announced 28th September 2015 - $55.6M (Finance income, no Finance Charges in the accounts)

[xxnjr] 15/7/2019 08:11

OXY are certainly world class. ONGC are merely a large, slow moving, bureaucratic, government majority owned entity. Just "IMO".
Love India and its people.

[bountyhunter] 15/7/2019 07:35

that's what I was thinking,
I've upticked wskill's post with the proviso that the BoD excercise sensible financial management