Air Partner Share Discussion Threads

[onthemarblecliffs] 15/5/2020 18:17

I am also somewhat surprised by that synopsis but just so you know Fitch’s expectations will have been guided by the company. Avia has bonds and a credit rating to consider so could well be cautious. However they are unlikely to be ridiculous in their assumptions - as the issuer loses credibility that way.

[haywards26] 15/5/2020 17:18

Onthemarblecliffs,

Fitch forecasting and/or any market forecasts will be pointless during the current climate...In a crisis the strong freight charter brokers will make hay whilst the sun shines, and performance will be many many multiples of the norm..

There is no chance CF & ACS will have broadly stable EBITDA in 2020...It will be record highs...2021..well depends on how long the crisis and society lockdowns continue for...

AP will see increased EBITDA in freight and potentially pax, but freight is the aviation sector where the current crisis is really going to make record highs..

[onthemarblecliffs] 15/5/2020 16:23

For those interested in comparisons Fitch is forecasting Avia Solutions’ Cargo brokers business (essentially Chapman Freeborn) will have “broadly stable” revenue and EBITDA this year, followed by a fall in 2021 (hxxps://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/fitch-revises-avia-outlook-to-negative-affirms-bb-idr-07-05-2020).

[haywards26] 15/5/2020 14:01

Dodddavid,

It is very useful to compare AP against their sector peers. Comparing management strategy, competency and direction.

Each of the 3 UK air charter companies took different strategic directions..

AP unfortunately are very much the poor relation and in 3rd place behind CF & ACS who will and are generating 3-4 times the annual profits of AP..That was not the case 5 years ago!

[qs99] 15/5/2020 10:46

Lovely job. Heading back to a quid IMO

[haywards26] 14/5/2020 17:44

Just a shame AP are not that strong in the freight charter market when compared to peers...ACS and CF will do multiples of AP volumes..

I am a holder here so hope for continued upside. But is a shame AP did not focus on the charter market when making their acquisitions over the last few years...

However strong the results are here, compare against peers in a years time and then appraise Biffa's efforts here...

Feel fair value here is 80-100..

[qs99] 14/5/2020 11:37

Good luck!

[markie7] 14/5/2020 11:35

just doubled my holding here. fasten seat belts.

[qs99] 14/5/2020 08:25

all on board for ride to a quid or more? DYOR

[qs99] 14/5/2020 08:11

Seems the market believes dodddddd and the rest of us who are reading those amazing Q1 figures.....IMO....let's see if we can edge back to that quid...DYOR

[galeforce1] 14/5/2020 07:36

Seems to me that the company is doing really well and I'm sure they will confirm the dividend. Or even raise it.

[marmar80] 13/5/2020 20:48

Is the divi confirmed ?

[valhamos] 13/5/2020 16:24

In the context of one or two here querying the rationale for the company's recent acquisitions I am delighted that the company has put out a RNS specifically on Redline which identifies its recent contract successes and adds a bit more colour to its presence in France - I had not appreciated that it already had the significant contracts for Paris Charles de Gaulle and Paris Orly. All in all it seems to be a fine acquisition and good that the company is attempting to keep shareholders informed so can we just put a stop to this nonsense?

[pvb] 13/5/2020 15:17

...Seems your bear case here is a song and dance about nothing. So, no bear case here from you then?

[trident5] 13/5/2020 15:16

Just wondered whether you could back up your post - seems not.

[pvb] 13/5/2020 15:12

...Please do your own reading.

OTOH, if you want to employ me as your 'reader', I am willing to look at any proposals you have provided your rates are attractive. ;-)

[trident5] 13/5/2020 15:07

Please let me know what the additional detail was.