Air Partner Share Discussion Threads

[trident5] 30/4/2020 19:34

pvb - what's the problem?
do you only want to read happy-clappy stuff about your investments - to reinforce your confirmation bias.

V. is obviously very knowledgable about the sector and it's a free country and all that.

[pvb] 30/4/2020 19:24

Venek 30 Apr '20 - 17:12 - 1377 of 1377

I've explained that before if you really care.

Where? From what I've seen you usually sidestep the question. ;-)

And yes I've been investing elsewhere, without waiting for your permission, and will do so until such time that accident prone AP sort themselves out.

I'm sure you don't need my permission to invest in anything, Venek! Though you seem only to post about AP, here on ADVFN.

That is surely in the interest of investors, employees and the company.

You seem to imply that you are a prospective investor in AIR, or at least, wanting to invest.

[venek] 30/4/2020 17:12

I've explained that before if you really care. And yes I've been investing elsewhere, without waiting for your permission, and will do so until such time that accident prone AP sort themselves out. That is surely in the interest of investors, employees and the company.

[pvb] 30/4/2020 16:24

So what IS your persistent 'interest' here? Ex holder? If ex, why bother? Just invest elsewhere.

[pvb] 23/4/2020 21:38

Venek 23 Apr '20 - 09:08 - 1372 of 1373

But sharw a completely false claim as I've never worked for AP.

Did you ever work for Baines Simmons?

[aiming] 23/4/2020 09:37

the opportunity was from 19p back up to 70p+ it seems and looking forward and taking advantage of the market drop..opportunity missed by some to date

[venek] 23/4/2020 09:08

But sharw a completely false claim as I've never worked for AP. You are taking at face value, with no evidence, claims by someone who claims, with no evidence, to be an ex-employee based solely on a coincidental anagram!

A beautiful month?
AP share price 18 Feb:- 74.8p
AP share price 18 Mar:- 17.975p (after the AP COVID-19 announcement)
Drop in market cap:- £29mn

[marmar80] 22/4/2020 22:33

Interesting stories here today

[sharw] 22/4/2020 21:50

mnomis - in answer to your original question you should read this thread from here -



where Keven Baines, director of Baines Simmons from 2001 to 2017, revealed Venek (Keven rearranged geddit*) as "an ex-employee with a significant chip on his shoulder".

*see also

This led to a beautiful month (Feb. 18th to March 18th) when there were no posts on here from Venek until the virus struck and he or she could resist no longer.

[venek] 22/4/2020 17:09

trident5 I assume that was a question was for Valhamos.

For what its worth:-

What was AP Training and Consulting Division and is now their Safety and Security Division is now made up of several acquisitions still trading separately but they also put their charter group's emergency planning business in it too (which is core plc business and is not being sold as Baines Simmonds as far as I know but perhaps Valhamos knows better).

Who knows if that business will be rolled back in to Charter as Emergency Planning and Emergency Execution (e.g. recent repatriations) are very similar in a crisis.

The companies share a common VAT registration number now. If they are going to lay that golden egg through cross-selling perhaps they should be looking to integrate these businesses (and what happened to their stalled re-branding, revealed almost a year ago in the annual report?).

Safeskys is the odd one as their old office in High Wycombe seems to have been closed and that might be being run from either AP at Gatwick or maybe Baines Simmonds at Fairoaks or maybe now the Redline offices in Doncaster.

It was also clear on the Baines Simmonds website that Clockwork Research, before they were bought, was their sub-contractor for some projects, so CR's revenue on purchase was not as big a gain as might have been implied.

[trident5] 22/4/2020 15:08

Would you care to elaborate on the group accounting fudges?
It's quite clear from the T&Cs that BS customers are contracting with BS and BS alone - and that revenue has not been growing post acquisition.

And I'm not looking to prove anything, - just evaluate what is probable. So I think it's rational to determine the financial performance of the acquisitions from their audited accounts and not airy-fairy unaudited asides that contradict the numbers reported.

[venek] 22/4/2020 14:26

Probably because:-

a) AP have form on group accounting failures already (as I've said earlier today)
b) Companies House started action to strike Baines Simmonds off in Jan 2019 for one of those failings (as I was the first to point out here)
c) All you are really confirming is AP accounts are opaque - reinforcing the point that we shouldn't believe the hype without far more current and historic data

But they have bought other companies. Take Safeskys where they have now at least admitted are struggling with multiple loss making contracts. It not really clear if they bought them with loss making contracts (i.e. bad due diligence) or they were signed under AP ownership (i.e. bad management). Either way that is not good.

[valhamos] 22/4/2020 13:43

"What makes you think otherwise"

Because the Baines Simmons that appears in the AIR accounts as in "Baines Simmons has had another good year." need not be the same as the legal entity Baines Simmons Limited which shows a reduction in profit to only £46k. There are a whole host of group accounting issues so I think you are wasting your time trying to prove a destruction in shareholder value by looking at legal entity accounts. Obvious really and common practice for group companies and I am surprised I have to labour this point.

[venek] 22/4/2020 12:29

For total clarity:- I am pretty sure they know and understand the performance of their non-core acquisitions.

The CEO has been in post for 10 years. This was his big new thing 5 years ago. I don't believe they can be honest about the failure while he is in post.

Every acquisition just reset the clock to the oft promised golden egg being laid. I'm unconvinced they know how to improve that performance and their security / safety customers are going through hell so demand will be slow in the next few years.

[trident5] 22/4/2020 11:27

I think we should presume that they have now taken control of what appears in the accounts and that they do give a true and fair view.
What makes you think otherwise?

Should we be selling ?

[valhamos] 22/4/2020 10:51

It's not an issue of true and fair; following acquisition they are fully controlled by another entity therefore not in control of what appears in their own accounts.

[trident5] 22/4/2020 10:25

One trusts that they, and their auditors, have now grasped the importance of preparing accounts that give a true and fair view.

The full picture can also be seen in the full group accounts post- acquisition - no growth.

[valhamos] 22/4/2020 10:04

As I said in my last post "You are wasting your time looking at legal entity accounts as they will not give you the full picture following acquisition by the group."

[trident5] 22/4/2020 10:00

"Baines Simmons has had another good year" - this highlights much of what Venek posts.

BS was acquired in 2015 for £6m cash.

How much profit did it make in 2019? £46k! And that was less than half it made the year before.

BS is making about as much as a low level manager's salary.

"Cross selling" is of course impossible for us to quantify - but one sees similar financial out turns amongst the other acquisitions and group profitability hasn't grown over recent years.

Allied to a negative view is that the base case for acquisitions is that they don't work out for acquirer.

Management focus should be on the dull day in/day out AP business and not on exciting projects and empire building. The accounting shenanigans didn't suggest management were focussed.

Buyers at the recent lows have done well so far. Longer term holders have cause for disgruntlement.

[valhamos] 22/4/2020 09:34

Good - you bought near the lows like I did when Venek was still running the company down which wasn't very "financially lucrative" if one had been put off buying.

Recent acquisitions - here's some snippets from recent RNS as a reminder

Year to 31.1.19 "Since its acquisition in 2015, we have worked hard to integrate and progress Baines Simmons, and we are now seeing good results from the changes we have made. ... As a result, Baines Simmons has had another good year. The Training Academy has performed particularly well, fuelled by a coordinated strategy between departments. We saw some of the most successful periods for training in the business' history during the second half and this momentum is continuing in the current financial year...Cross-selling opportunities between our Consulting & Training and Charter divisions are increasing and a pipeline is crystallising. We are providing good leads to our Charter colleagues, which have resulted in them securing new contracts wins."

Half year to 31.7.19 "It is clear from these results that our strategy to diversify by revenue stream and geography is working, with Consulting & Training compensating for slower trading in our Group Charter division...Our Consulting & Training division has performed well in the period, with gross profit up 7.6% to £2.1m (H1 2018: £2.0m), and has seen a strong performance from the aviation, energy and ground handling sectors in particular."

You are wasting your time looking at legal entity accounts as they will not give you the full picture following acquisition by the group.

As you can see from the above some of the recent acquisitions provided cross selling opportunities for the rest of the group and compensation when Charter did not do so well. This is the opposite of you claim of the destruction of shareholder value and hence why I disagree with your idea about divesting the consultancies.

[trident5] 22/4/2020 08:56

I am not aware of any RNS that indicates their recent acquisitions have added value - but I have taken the trouble to look at the financial performance of their acquisitions - it's not pretty.

I bought at 17p and 19p - on the basis that the company was being valued at about the sum of its last three years dividends and on the belief that whilst some charter work will have dried up, other work should pick up.

Now I'm a part-owner I'd like to see them divest their consultancies and focus on the knitting.

[valhamos] 22/4/2020 08:41

"he has highlighted the destruction of shareholder value that has arisen from their recent acquisitions."

Your opinion but not consistent with the RNS that have been issued.

Talking of what is financially lucrative did you buy at or near the recent lows?

[venek] 22/4/2020 08:26

They haven’t delivered a ‘solid’ 3 months! Based on the content and timing or recent announcements they seem to have delivered high performance for a few exceptional WEEKS (i.e. the exceptional spread of a pandemic) in a PART of their business.

The approach to those weeks saw acknowledged falls in general business performance and continued poor performance of their non-core acquisitions. Indications are that that market conditions will be very poor for the majority of AP’s business sectors. Their management history of poor strategy and unagile performance means they remain vulnerable to smarter more agile and often better backed competitors.

You have a choice:- look at the share price and the total revenues OR look at management/strategy/execution/the markets they do business in. My conclusions come from looking at the latter as the former has been subject to regular turbulence (much self-induced) and regular shuffling of divisions within AP that make the limited detail they report impossible to trend.

Their management/strategy/execution/the markets they do business in are fundamentals. My negativity is because these are weak and have been for a long time.

I agree time will tell. We should all read the next announcement from AP very carefully and look at what detailed evidence they give. When their Chairman says in the Times he wouldn’t have been brave enough to do what you did and have bought at the bottom then then it’s time to challenge the hype. They are going to need to explain very clearly the pre-virus performance (last FY and Feb 2020), post-virus performance to date and do there best to forecast what is going to be a very turbulent 12 months ahead without resorting to AP’s traditional rose tinted glasses.