Air Partner Share Discussion Threads

[badger38] 28/3/2020 05:44

Venek , dear chum, you clear don't have the inside track to BS or AP as you claim or an appreciation of how small the BS contribute to the overall 40m plus earnings of AP is, that said from my Military source (all aviators) The impact to BS is only a small element and their innovative approach has addressed the issue of social distancing.I also think, given the impact to the rest of the worlds trade and businesses your remarks are somewhat out of context with reality of ground truth..... but they usually are so nothing new here... My understanding from industry contacts is that AP freight and charter are absolutely off the clock busy moving global supplies as the worlds commerce commercial engine is hit by COVID, this is extant the space AP fill.

[venek] 27/3/2020 16:48

"There never was much visibility about future earnings at Air, in any case." Very true but even historic earnings have been kept as opaque as possible.

The recent official RNS was stark and the market reacted to the bleakness. How funny that days later AP pump out more positive informal PR spin but with very little underlying fact.

Things to remember:

Low oil price is generally good for aviation and economies generally. Now the safety and security bods at AP might normally have hopped for more business as the oil process falls. Not this time, as airlines park aircraft, furlong staff and cancel training. Those who pay close attention will know the UK military announced yesterday they were cancelling 31 days of scheduled training with Baines Simmonds to add to what is likely to be a tsumami of cancellations from airlines. BS are now having to scramble to offer online training but it appears they have done little other than offer to deliver materiel by webinar. Apparently BS have a disgruntled workforce we've been told here by ex-employees. They are going to get even more disgruntled as the work dries up.

A low oil price is not good for the oil industry and they are a traditionally big user of chartered aircraft, especially to support drilling campaigns, move outsized loads, mobilise for drilling etc. Energy analysts are showing that future explo projects are going into abeyance, especially as counties go on lock down.

Yes there is a very short term freight demand as airline services are disrupted (most cargo flies under the floor on scheduled services not charters). But that will ease as airlines adjust their schedules to fly cargo only flights. Cargo rates will go up but the relationship will be between freight forwarders and airlines, not via charter brokers.

HOWEVER, those blinded by a few AP tweets need to look at the global economy generally. Economic activity is dropping so cargo demand is dropping.

Even if demand exceeds supply is only because of the total supply dropping.

Loot at business aviation - big players are, just like the airlines, hibernating:-
Harrods www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/business-aviation/2020-03-25/harrods-temporarily-closing-london-fbo-mros
GAMA www.flightglobal.com/business-aviation/gama-aviation-prepares-for-impact-from-covid-19-outbreak/137522.article

The head of the UK trade association BBGA says: "The expectation is that by the end of the month everything will be grounded. t is highly likely that we will see a significant number of business casualties that will be defeated by cash-flow problems. The magnitude of this depends on how quickly the market opens in a global sense. Clearly it is not just how your home country is performing against the virus, it is how your normal client network is affected. If this spreads out some three months, then there could be significant losses." He said that, operationally, there was a “very short peak where people repositioned themselves” before borders closed, but now things are slowing to a halt.

In this article:- www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/business-aviation/2020-03-27/bizav-demand-dip-deepens-covid-19-closes-factories
"Those looking for silver linings in the dark clouds over business aviation this week found themselves squinting to see any. If the Covid-19 pandemic’s repercussions for the industry still seemed ambiguous at the end of last week, there is now little doubt that the sector’s engines are spooling down and the industry is bracing for a period of inactivity. The only remaining questions seem to be for how long this might last and whether it could prove to be more than just a temporary interruption to what until now has been a rising tide for business aviation."

On March 26, data analyst WingX reported business aviation flights to and from Europe as being 24 percent down so far in March, compared to the same period in 2019. “The slowdown accelerated into a slump last week, with flight activity over the most recent weekend falling by 70 percent,” said the company.

Teal Group’s vice president for analysis, Richard Aboulafia says “Whenever something bad happens to airlines (pandemic or terror), there’s an anecdotal upsurge in private aviation demand. This has never proved to be sustainable. In fact, business jet demand gets clobbered by crashing equity markets and corporate profits.”

More and more businesses are reverting to online meetings. Yes, when travel bans are lifted business travel will increase. But while companies are still in the aftermath of this pandemic inspired downturn its reasonable to assume they will use online methods to reduce travel costs.

People picking target prices are either doing it based on data (so go ahead share some) or picking it out of thin air (and remember 2 years ago it was 140p!).

Only a month or so ago (AFTER the outbreak in China) analysts Canaccord Genuity revised their target for AP from 145 (set Oct 2019) to 140. That looks laughable now. At the time some here saw that as another sign of postivity for AP. of course any one who bothered to research the topic would know Canaccord Genuity are not a truly independent anayst, but AP had appointed them as financial adviser and joint broker last September. Its behaviour like that and pumping out PR spin that contradicts RNSs make me worry about integrity at AP.

[marmar80] 27/3/2020 13:45

My take about AIR situation.Share price declined dramatically as the investors linked AIR with traditional airlines. Now I personally think the share price will climb back to around 60p until update from company is received. RSI is still low so there is a chance to recover quite fast.Low oil price is good for keeping costs down. Premium ticket prices, good for revenue. No ordinary passenger flights by big airlines, good for taking repatriation flights and rapidly expand on their newly launched product AirPartner Protect. Demand is out there. Shortage of goods from China, good for AIR cargo unit. Cargo won't be stopped as it's needed to keep the supply chains running. History of high dividends in the previous years, hope to be kept.

[trident5] 27/3/2020 10:46

There never was much visibility about future earnings at Air, in any case.

[spacedust] 27/3/2020 10:40

Its completely different if you decide to read the relevant bits

[daz] 27/3/2020 10:26

The statement is no different to the announcements made by other companies.

[marmar80] 27/3/2020 10:25

Most of the emergency transport goes by planes over the recent days and they offer this service. Demand is there. People if want to fly, have to book private jets. Air is in a good place.

[iamgreat1] 27/3/2020 10:04

The COVID-19 crisis began at the start of our financial year and so it is too early to judge the full year impact - either positively or negatively - with any degree of certainty at this point. As a result, it is no longer possible to provide financial guidance for the remainder of the financial year ending 31 January 2021The statement above is very worrying

[marmar80] 27/3/2020 09:47

Question is can it do 70-80? Seems the revenue gap is being filled with the emergency covid flights now.

[spacedust] 27/3/2020 09:07

Could the daily volumes be added below the chart? Qouks appreciate it. Thanknyou

[spacedust] 27/3/2020 08:51

Could air buck the trend. 40p soon?

[marmar80] 27/3/2020 08:29

The situation is constantly evolving, so please speak to an Account Manager for the most up to date information. You can contact us directly on [e-mail] or [phone].IS THERE STILL COMMERCIAL JET AVAILABILITY?   Yes, we are working closely with operators to secure availability. As it is a fast-moving situation, the spare capacity tends to be very fluid. This means availability gets booked up quickly and we are therefore seeing fast turnarounds of flight bookings.   

[marmar80] 27/3/2020 08:26

Air Partner - 24 Mar 2020Due to the current COVID situation the freight transport capacity on scheduled aircraft has been drastically reduced on many routes worldwide and more logistical challenges are created each day. We want to keep your supply chains running during COVID. We can support you with widebody charter options (full and part charter) but availability is changing very quickly.

[spacedust] 26/3/2020 23:03

Why not indeed hey. You'd think AIR would resume it's upward trajectory but I doubt it

[marmar80] 26/3/2020 22:42

Low oil price, good for keeping costs down. Premium ticket prices, good for AIR's revenue. No ordinary passenger flights by big operators, good for AIR taking the repatriation flights. Shortage of goods from China, good for AIR cargo unit. High divi in the previous years. Why not invest here?

[pvb] 26/3/2020 17:57

...Keep it clean! ;-)

[spacedust] 26/3/2020 15:46

Can you nibble a bit more

[mnomis] 26/3/2020 11:37

I am in for a nibble ...

[encarter] 26/3/2020 10:25

I can see a recovery back above 90p within a year. Still not a bad return from here

[spacedust] 26/3/2020 10:24

With such low shares in issue of only 53m and market cap of 15m only it won't take long for this to spike and double bag from its low

[spacedust] 26/3/2020 10:14

Should have got in at 18p. I can see a large recovery here back to 60p.

Good luck those who got in

[encarter] 26/3/2020 09:53

From LSEAir Partner's CEO Mark Briffa. "We're seeing a spike in air freight service requests as many commercial flights are being grounded and at a time when Chinese industrial production is restarting after a month-long shutdown. There is still immediate charter availability, but we foresee that could change in the coming weeks.""China Production – With China beginning to slowly ramp up production again, it will take some time for scheduled freight operators to readjust their capacities to normal schedule. Charter service can cover this shortfall."" During the coronavirus outbreak, Air Partner has seen a large increase in urgent freight requests from companies seeking to transport a number of different commodities between Europe, North America and Asia. Most recently Air Partner delivered medical kits on a citation jet from Italy to a cruise ship in Spain and 70 tonnes of automotive parts from Germany to the US. For another mission Air Partner transported on a series of charters, hand sanitizer and hygiene supplies from the U.S. to China as businesses in China must comply with increased sanitation regulation standards

[marmar80] 26/3/2020 08:59

https://www.mrobusinesstoday.com/air-partner-launches-air-partner-protect-in-their-fight-against-covid19-breaking-news-safety

[encarter] 25/3/2020 16:07

I agree so leave me alone.

[venek] 25/3/2020 15:57

When it comes to childish name calling, someone hoping for a 'nice' share price bounce off what they expect will be mass fatalities probably shouldn't be casting the first stone. I hope you realise how repulsive that is without it being needed to be explained to you.