Abrdn Share Discussion Threads

[netcurtains] 20/5/2024 07:08

I bought more ABDRN this morning.

I feel ii (InteractiveInvestor) is undervalued....

(see market cap for IG or AJ Bell)

[netcurtains] 19/5/2024 12:21

PO: trading is like maintenance in engineering- there is an equation somewhere that lets you know the optimum amount of maintenance before maintenance becomes more risky than the thing you’re trying to avoid….
So trading is the same / the more you do the less profit you make and the more the MM makes. There is an optimum amount

[pierre oreilly] 19/5/2024 11:49

Well no. Divi dodging is trading. Trading means 80% of traders lose, at least according to the financial regulator. We're lucky on advfn because we only have the 20% who always win...according to posts on here.

[mcunliffe1] 19/5/2024 11:47

Pierre, Net, good afternoon. Nice and sunny wall-to-wall today - for once.

I don't believe I was on the thread with those guys - but I grasp the concept.

Pierre, I'm guessing your Premium Bond 'system' was a rhetorical comment. The P.B. draw appears to be about as random as you can get. Holding the max. £50k will increase your chances of winning for sure.

The Nat. Lottery though I feel may benefit from a 'system'. A simple one mind.

Buy a lucky dip on the saame day as the draw.

Given the Lucky Dip numbers are generated by the central computer and further, given that the operator always wants a single jackpot winner (good publicity) it makes sense to me that every lucky dip pattern should be unique given the central computer has knowledge of all previously sold (and generated but not yet sold) lucky dips PLUS knowledge of all the existing self selected numbers.

I'd presume the central computer would generate the banks of lucky dips during the night and distribute blocks to the tills ready for the next day.

Whilst buying your lucky dip on the day of the draw you increase your statistical chance that, should you win the jackpot you'll not share it with another winner with the exact same numbers. You gain no extra chance of winning however.#

That said, I don't play the Nat.Lot.

[netcurtains] 19/5/2024 11:35

This exdiv system works apparently 55%ish of time. Each situation is different

[pierre oreilly] 19/5/2024 11:30

You'll get that result about half the time you try it.I won 50grand on premium bonds with my premium bonds system last year. Doesn't mean my system works, never won that amount again.

[netcurtains] 19/5/2024 11:07

PO: It worked for me this time. I sold all my LGEN before divi (made my 8% on the climb up) and then made another 5% on buyback after (since sold half)... However, I am aware that you too must have made 8% on climb back up and get a bigger divi than 5%...

But a profit is still a profit, so even though I would have been better off not doing it, I am still up 13% in a few months and that is GREAT - I cant grumble (even if you have done loads better - that is irrelevant - the sell before divi did work well enough - this time ).

[pierre oreilly] 19/5/2024 10:55

Mcun, re divi dodgers - I thought you were on the thread where rong and ronger posted his theory of becoming rich by divi dodging? Well if not, here's his theory. If you own some shares, sell before xd. Wait for xd drop and buy back cheaper. Et voila, you become rich. Only ask for more detail and he goes quiet, except to say he's just done it again and made another hundred pounds profit. The next day that hundred becomes a thousand when he tells the story again. And guess what, seemingly everyone is now divi dodging on that board and raking it in. You do it for one share, then move onto the next because holding not around xd is dead money according to him and others.Well my dead money over the last 3 weeks has made me 4x the min wage pa (tax free of course) plus I won't be dodging the divis to come from those holdings so I can sit on my bum in the sun and wait for those to roll in too. So naturally I'm sceptical of this divi dodging and dead money strategy. Rong and ronger swears by it though.

[netcurtains] 19/5/2024 10:10

In life of Brian I'm sure they will be discussing how you can possibly have a plank in your eye and still be alive.......😀;😀

The TEN YEAR graph looks quite interesting... It appears we have had a DOUBLE BOTTOM and possibly we are in the era of recovery.....




If you then set the ALL TIME you will see that there have only been THREE times in total where price is this low:

a) Now
b) 2022
c) banking crash 2008.

(I'm guessing now and 2022 are related to problems connected to covid-19, ukraine war and brexit - and government recessionary policies)

[mcunliffe1] 19/5/2024 10:00

Very Biblical Spud for a Sunday ;-)

[spud] 19/5/2024 08:12

Even with a £1b stake, ABDN is in no position to lecture. As the old proverb says : You hypocrite, first take the plank out of your own eye, and then you will see clearly to remove the speck from your brother's eye.spud

[netcurtains] 18/5/2024 14:55

MCunLiffe1: I have this theory that the average "THING" (in our case a company share price/dividend) over time returns to the mean.

So if you look for the outliers, its quite possible that they will return to the fold of being boring average....

Thus PHNX and ABDN - one or both of them just might have a good run..... If the theory holds some validity... Or of course, the entire pack might slow down allowing them both to catch up... So nothing is certain...

[mcunliffe1] 18/5/2024 13:48

Yes, net - very good. Thank you.

Perhaps ii is failing to generate profit as they are keen to incentivise new customers/business by offering generous 'hello' deals. For example, I moved to them in Mar 2023 and gained almost £400 straight into by nominated bank account after about 3-4 weeks. I also had no platform fee for the first six months saving £12.99 x 6.

So far I am in credit with them and if I work on £350 incentive it will take 27 months before I really start to pay (not countinf dealing fees here).

They pay decent interest as well so unsure HOW they can be making money.

[skinny] 18/5/2024 13:27

As posted, I bought a few more on April 5th with some spare 2023/24 ISA allowance.

I had a straight choice between MNG - which I also hold and here and so far so good.

Just a pity about my longer term holding!

[chinese investor] 18/5/2024 11:30

Thank you - good research !

[netcurtains] 18/5/2024 10:44

Is ABDN the best (on paper) compared to all the major insurer/pension type companies:


I've added on an X column which gives a sort of VALUE to the share not linked to profits (I call this X):

Assets - Liabilities / Market Cap (lets call this X)
I've put this figures at the end of the list (The higher then number the "better" it is)

PHNX yield is 10.02% X= 0.57
LGEN is 8.1% X=0.32
HSBC is 7% X=1.41 <=========WOW
ABDN is 9.57% X=1.77 <=======WOW
AV. 6.77% X=0.69
MNG 9.54% X= 0.82
CSN 9.21% (CHESNARA) X=0.89
ELLA 6.53% (ECCLESIASTICAL) X=3.13 <=======WOW
HSD 9.35% (HANSARD) X=0.31
PGH 5.76% (PERSONAL GRP) X=0.57
SBRE 3.29% (SABRE Insurance) X=0.60
LRE 2.55% (LANCASHIRE) X=0.99 <========Nearly wow
JUST 2.02% (JUST GROUP) X=2.04 <=========WOW
AJB 2.97% (AJ BELL) X=0.11
ADM 2.72% (ADMIRAL) X=0.12
DLG 2.03% (DIRECT LINE) X=0.85
HSX 2.58% (HISCOX) X=0.81
PRU 2.08% (PRUDENTIAL) X=0.78
STJ 4.8% (ST JAMES PLACE) X=0.37

IG Group Holdings ticker IGG (its been having a good run)
Yield 5.73 PE: 10.74 X=0.68

Its difficult to find overseas competitors but I guess these two are:

Perpetual Equity Investment Company Ltd Australia ASX:PIC
Yield: 6.67% PE: 25.83

The BlackRock in NewYork NYSE:BLK
Yield 2.51% PE: 20.63



Of the big companies I've listed, on paper, taking into account dividend yield and NET ASSETs as percentage of MARKET CAP...

The "best" MAJOR insurer appears to be ABDN.....

I guess where ABDN falls down is that II does not seem to be generating the same sort of income as IG or AJ Bell...

[amanitaangelicus] 17/5/2024 15:49

Just a gravy train for management. Not long before the ' gobbling'. The pillaging has gone on for long enough. Aeroplane flight anyone - the management like a nice flight to warmer climes at your expense. Oh how times have changed. Nay class, standards.

[thomstar] 10/5/2024 14:50

Short the ftse , guaranteed cash when it goes down again

[chinese investor] 10/5/2024 13:21

"Stock Markets" are hitting their "All Time Highs" so...
..."The Small Investor" buys "Funds" !

[rongetsrich] 10/5/2024 13:18

Yes, he can't fathom out that I wiped the floor with him, selling the shares before the dividend, watching the share price nearly drop twice the dividend, taking the cash profit and buying even more of the shares than I had before I sold.Old dogs, new tricks or a closed and rigid mindset!

[mcunliffe1] 10/5/2024 13:14

Ron: It was Pierre who used the remark 'divi dodgers' in post #3107.

It puzzled me as well.

[rongetsrich] 10/5/2024 08:48

Peter, divi dodgers? Could you explain the term for everyone on here, as I would like to know.

[marketmuser] 07/5/2024 12:07

And still 10% of Phoenix as well? 500m or so there if they still have that holding (I recall it being trimmed but can't remember from what to what!)

[pj84] 07/5/2024 10:47

Abrdn is a special situation, says Deutsche Bank

"Although there is a challenge in identifying ‘what the catalyst for change to the status quo might be’ and the timing of such changes, McCann said ‘we think the gap between the share price and the sum-of-the-parts is too compelling to ignore’."