4d Pharma Share Discussion Threads

[realist1950] 13/10/2020 17:27

And some clarity on the positives arising from the IBS trial.

Seems I've pretty much hit the nail on the head regarding an over expectant market and missing the wood for the trees.

ps I am not Duncan Patent. Or Peyton.

[realist1950] 13/10/2020 17:24

Thank you ozzywalker. Agreed. Very good interview.

Pretty much echos my thoughts and no, I had not watched this interview first.

[ozzywalker] 13/10/2020 17:14

https://youtu.be/8ojyr5oQToYA great interview with Duncan posted today

[realist1950] 13/10/2020 17:02

TrottersTrading. Interesting post. I think the fall certainly illustrates how over expectant the market was and as I've previously posted, even in the face of outstanding results we can now see the market was looking to sell the news. The fall was compounded by modest results, but crucially, amid all the noise, the market is not hearing the positive elements within the update (particularly the content of the webinar). There are some key takeaways which I still think are being overlooked. IBS is clearly a difficult disease to treat, but to already be on a par with existing prescribed drugs (which have unwanted side effects) and to have found efficacy for those with an alternating pattern of disease is not insignificant. The company has stated they are to model a phase three and are currently in discussions with a number of potential partners. Either this is a lie, or it is the reality. If it is the reality of the situation, to value Blautix at next to nothing is to oversell the company.

In time I believe I will be vindicated on this very point, as I think a partner and more details on a phase III will arrive before the end of the year. We'll see.

Not for me to provide guidance for shorters, but what I would say is that a short opened in the 170's - 180's was clearly the place to be, and in doing so now, effectively 'after the event', would seem to me to be like like playing with fire.

Unlike other situations out there, there remains the potential for some sudden uplift here as we can all see news is due in several key areas before the end of the year. For example, a positive update regarding our MERCK collaboration could be ruinous for those betting against the company. I'm not sure that will happen imminently, but it is one potential source of news, from many.

There are plenty of distressed companies out there who presently have very little to offer in the way of uplift (let alone sudden and significant uplift) and who are very much at the mercy of Covid. I'd rather bet on some of those failing as apposed to a business that is very much involved in working on solutions.

By all means, people will short as they see fit, but they should not complain if they get burned if/when the company updates on it's Covid-19 trial and wonder why on Earth they didn't short something more transparent and obviously distressed such a 'free hugs' or 'air kiss plc' type business.

The value of 4D is also fairly well underpinned by a considerable amount of I.P. and a number of active trials.....and I think the market will be keen to buy up a bit of that data and potential should the share price weaken much more. A lot of people rue that they did not buy in for the original climb, and my betting is they will jump at a second chance offer when this begins to recover.

Let's see what updates arrive in the remainder of October.

AIMO. ADYOR etc.

[trotterstrading] 13/10/2020 17:02

Some chunky buys going through after close. Smart money taking advantage.

[ultimatewarrior] 13/10/2020 16:47

If he doesn't answer this question I'm filtering him Good luck all

[trotterstrading] 13/10/2020 16:23

The drop off in share price from the highs (83p drop) just goes to show how much speculative money was 'in' the Blautix result. Which sums up AIM in a nutshell.. hot money, sentiment driven, short termism

[hodhasharon] 13/10/2020 15:18

You still long Stig?

[the stigologist] 13/10/2020 15:15

I think there could be 2 Oncology 'updates' in Q4?

They mentioned in the now deleted tweet 2 posters to be presented at #SITCCancer2020 (Nov 9-14th) and they have flagged early results from MRX0518 as monotherapy in solid tumours trial at Imperial.

The latter trial could be one of the posters presented at #SITCCancer2020 or it might be separate?

The Imperial trial will only be preliminary safety data and maybe some efficacy component

[swallowsflysouth] 13/10/2020 15:02

my little top up has been recorded as a sell.

[katsy] 13/10/2020 14:35

Hurry up and close that gap, my time is limited on this planet!

[breezy4] 13/10/2020 14:34

Any idea when oncology subset results will be out? That should atleast stop the rot

[stigofthedump] 13/10/2020 13:13

i'll dismantle either of u.

much the same thing.

[stigofthedump] 13/10/2020 12:59

dont sweat now.... x

[stigofthedump] 13/10/2020 12:55

Aint that right, ANDY?

[stigofthedump] 13/10/2020 12:53

why do u always post with your capslock on big brother8?

and are u out of your pyjamas yet?

here he is everyone



the wizard (or in his case, the sad c*nt) revealed

[deeppockets] 13/10/2020 12:52

But SBTX is looking to resolve the prevention of Psoriasis not treating the symptoms.

[devonlad] 13/10/2020 12:49

Interesting trades this morning if you are interested. A lot of chunky delayed trades going through that are primarily sells. There is a buyer mopping these up and the bots are on the offer as a rule. It seems that we have found an equilibrium at £1 which is a logical base. Might be interesting when the seller clears. Nice info Stig.

[eeza] 13/10/2020 12:48

SBTX - is in the process of producing a probiotic food supplement for the treatment of psoriasis.

[the stigologist] 13/10/2020 12:44

Evelo Biosciences Treats First Patients in Phase 2 Dose-Ranging Trial of EDP1815 for the Treatment of Psoriasis

– Interim data expected by mid-2021 –

CAMBRIDGE, Mass., Oct. 13, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Evelo Biosciences, Inc. (Nasdaq:EVLO), a clinical stage biotechnology company developing a new modality of orally delivered, systemically acting biologics, today announced that it has dosed the first patients in its Phase 2 clinical trial evaluating EDP1815 for the treatment of mild to moderate psoriasis. EDP1815 is an investigational oral biologic in development for the treatment of inflammatory diseases including psoriasis, atopic dermatitis, and COVID-19.

“We are pleased to announce the dosing of the first patients in our Phase 2 clinical trial in mild to moderate psoriasis,” said Duncan McHale, M.B.B.S., Ph.D., Chief Medical Officer of Evelo. “In Phase 1b studies, EDP1815 demonstrated an ability to resolve systemic inflammation and provide clinical benefit to patients with psoriasis. Based on these data, EDP1815 may offer an improved profile to existing products and others in development. EDP1815 has the potential to be an effective, well-tolerated, and convenient medicine for millions of patients with mild to moderate psoriasis. Our Phase 2 trial, if successful, will enable us to advance into confirmatory registrational studies, following meetings with health authorities such as the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and European Medicines Agency (EMA). We look forward to interim data by mid-2021, as we continue to progress this important therapy toward market.”

EDP1815-201 is a double-blind, placebo-controlled, dose-ranging Phase 2 trial designed to evaluate three doses of the enteric capsule formulation of EDP1815 versus placebo in 225 patients with mild to moderate psoriasis over a 16-week treatment period. The primary endpoint is mean reduction in Psoriasis Area and Severity Index (PASI) score at 16 weeks. Key secondary endpoints include other clinical measures of disease such as Physician’s Global Assessment (PGA), Body Surface Area (BSA), PGA x BSA, Psoriasis Symptom Inventory (PSI), Dermatology Life Quality Index (DLQI), and Lesion Severity Score (LSS). Interim data from the study is expected by mid-2021.

[katsy] 13/10/2020 12:17

People have to remember that early stage pharmas are high risk but could be high reward. So if you're prepared to take the risk you can be rewarded, but don't put your mortgage on it. For every one that succeeds there are many more that fail. I remember just before the IBS news this had a 35p swing in less than 2 hours of trading, and that was without news.