1x Tsla Discussion Threads

[dominiccummings] 04/3/2024 21:55

#10497 Aye Nvidia and AI are the same bubble. A couple of years ago the same tech was called 'Big data'. I suspect it will drain away when there is no particular AI 'service' that is eye catching.

[hpcg] 04/3/2024 13:42

The end of EVs is not the argument of any rational short position. It just needs to mean revert to the valuation of successful volume car maker and it has a long way to fall.

[hosede] 04/3/2024 13:42

Dominic
Maintenance must certainly be very low - so few moving parts - but I think accident repairs can be huge - if the battery is damaged: however the point I am making is that it is a viscious circle. Anyway I think as hpcg says, the mania has moved on to Nvidia - and maybe crypto

[hosede] 04/3/2024 13:00

Yes we are heading into the climax of a mania comparable to that in 1720.
Where and when it will end who knows - but it can't carry on that much longer.
It is beginning to look like the great move to EVs is starting to stall. Joe public doesn't seem to like them. Expensive to repair and insure: the result low second hand value which only stokes the viscious circle.

[hpcg] 04/3/2024 10:08

The short argument against Tesla now is the leaking of cult members into the AI space. Or perhaps worse a Space-X IPO. They have never worried about multiples before, so I doubt no growth will bother them, but the thrill of yoloing options elsewhere in stocks going up might take over. Nvidia is now volume leader in that space.

[cfb2] 04/3/2024 09:54

The article conveniently forgets the premise that Musk set against the cars rising in value. Iff Telsa get FSD working and customers have the ability to rent out their cars as robotaxis then they will be worth multiples of what was paid for them.

hosede: I realise you know this in your role as chief provocateur because you keep reminding the thread of the Musk quote about Tesla being worth practically zero without robotaxis.

[hosede] 03/3/2024 11:29

Really quite a comic article. Musk was delusional - but I guess he had a lot of cars to sell :-0

[hosede] 26/2/2024 12:19

Could be Dominic
But can large EVs like Teslas ever be both cheap enough for the "common man" AND profitable? Germany certainly in a big downturn
I tend to agree with Kiwi
No doubt Tesla will move with the times - but a significant period of unprofitability surely looms

[dominiccummings] 26/2/2024 10:41

Could it be that the big ICE manufacturers don't have the infrastructure to build EVs at a profit? Then cancelling their unprofitable EVs may be an attempted strategy to force governments to cancel EV plans.
I understand (from a buyer of engineering kit from Germany)that delivery of same has reduced from 'at least 9 months' down to '2 weeks, but maybe sooner'. Reduction in ICEs is killing Germany's manufacturing, (can't say I'm sorry about that!).

[kiwimonk] 26/2/2024 08:54

EV's have a market, High Earners who try everything new and can afford the massive depreciation.
Majority of population won't touch EV's. So Tesla will soon if they haven't already reached their saturation point. Look at all the EV manufacturer's laying off staff. And I know there are dozens of manufacs in China that are unprofitable and subsidized by the Communist Party. They are folding too.
Gov's will cancel and are cancelling the "No ICE's by 2035" etc.
EV's will go the way of the Sinclair C5.
Trust me!

[hosede] 25/2/2024 12:36

Have to say that considering it all, hybrids do look the best way forward. Small (light) battery that is used in town to curb pollution but ICE on the open road where mpg is at a maximum.
I know nothing about them, but I assume the eleectric motor turns into a generator in the same way as in hydroelectric storage

[polaris] 21/2/2024 01:38

I've a thought about Cybertruck. I always thought it was a non starter for general purpose but, recently, been thinking it might be aimed elsewhere. The US contract for law enforcement would be of great interest. For me, the truck is ugly but it would be iconic... comments?

[polaris] 21/2/2024 01:32

Fuel cell not due cell. I hate the phone app sometimes!

[polaris] 21/2/2024 01:31

I'm not sure the dry electrode process will ever work at production speeds. There are a multitude of reasons why industry uses solvents and I don't see a viable way to solve that unless you move to all solid state. That brings with it a whole series of other known issues that no one has overcome to date. If you can sow charging and use supercapacitors to even out high discharge rate, then you have a decent chance. Problem will be lifetime on high rate charging. At least that is IMO, as a battery and due cell researcher.

[cfb2] 20/2/2024 18:37

FSD continues to improve, and by that I mean time between interventions by the driver over the software continues to increase.

Rather than charging people for the software, users are prepared to pay for the current quality of software. From data gathered it has been shown that FSD software in conjunction with a human driver is an order of magnitude less likely to have an accident than just a driver.

I would personally define the software "working" when Tesla are prepared to take on insurance liability when there is an accident. Tesla isn't there yet but they are getting there.

[hosede] 20/2/2024 18:01

And charging people for it even though it doesn't work!

[cfb2] 20/2/2024 17:49

Musk is smart and driven but more importantly he has the ability to inspire many clever people to work towards his goals.

As far as Musk's companies taking longer to achieve things like FSD, I don't see any other companies with self driving cars. It's a really really difficult thing to do but I think Tesla are closest. Something achieved by having the foresight to putting FSD hardware in every car.

[cfb2] 20/2/2024 17:37

polaris: Yes you're right, although I wanted to give a taster of the technologies rather than a long post nobody would read. There are many other battery technologies in the lab that might make it to production.

Tesla has a shortage of batteries across it's vehicles and energy business. Their dry electrode process for making 4680 batteries is proving difficult to make work at production speeds.

[dominiccummings] 20/2/2024 17:22

The man is a genius

[mauricemonkey] 20/2/2024 16:45

Spot on Polaris.
The 4680 cell doesn't do what Musk stood stage and promised it would.
Neither does:
FSD
Appreciating assets
Semi
Clustertruck
Roadster 2.0

And that's just Tesla. We could create similar lists for every one of his companies. Outlandish claims and failure to deliver.

[hosede] 20/2/2024 16:28

Clocktower
£50 notes - there's inflation for you. " standing under a shower tearing up £10 pound notes" was the term when I last heard it:-0

[clocktower] 20/2/2024 16:04

🤣 DC What do I need a so called nice car for, when I have a horse or two. 😂😂

Do most folks really need a car, many would find it cheaper to pay for taxis, or private hire cars with drivers but as I mentioned want the likes of a Tesla, as though to give themselves a badge of pride that they have acquired something to be looked upon by the plebes with envy.

It’s a bit like buying a luxury yacht, bedsides the day you buy it, the next best day, in fact the even better day, is the day you sell it and stop tearing up £50 notes faster than they get printed. I know this for a fact, having bought and sold and never regretted it.

[polaris] 20/2/2024 15:24

Cfb - the world has been using NMCs for a long time. TSLA switched to LFP, which is a step back in terms of energy density and overall mass, impacting range. The reason? Their own hyped technology didn't cut the mustard and they needed a large volume technology fast. It is more stable than NMC and always better than NCAs. NMC811 is the current gold standard but still suffers cycling issues at high charge and discharge rates. There is some nice work in Nature from 2022 on using local order to overcome some issues but it ain't commercial yet. They also don't know the impact of variable charging rate on longer term stability It is far from a solved issue.