1x Tsla Discussion Threads

[cfb2] 30/10/2023 18:24

Hybrids are a good stop gap whilst an EV charging infrastructure is being built in the UK. A hybrid car has the complexity of both an ICE and an EV car under the bonnet, with a minimum cost to match. Lots of things to go wrong in a hybrid car.

[cfb2] 30/10/2023 13:01

EVs are piling up at dealerships because the major OEMs are not producing compelling vehicles at a price their customers are prepared to pay. Particularly the case for second hand vehicles as Tesla and BYD continue to slash the price of their new vehicles whilst simultaneously improving them.

There is a good reason why almost all the OEMs have struck a deal with Tesla's charging network. All the alternatives are unreliable and expensive. Explains why BP have just bought $100m of Tesla's superchargers to put in their petrol stations.

[simon gordon] 30/10/2023 10:37

CNBC - 16/10/23

Why EVs Are Piling Up At Dealerships In The U.S.

In August 2023, it took about twice as long to sell an EV in the U.S. as it did the previous January. Prices of EVs are down 22% year-over-year and that's mainly driven by Tesla. About two thirds of EVs sold are Elon Musk's brand. Companies like Ford have ramped up hybrid production as demand has leveled off. While slightly more than half of consumers say EVs are the future and will eventually replace Internal Combustion Engines, less than a third of dealers say so. This all comes at a time when investments in EVs are more than ever. So what's really going on? Watch the video to learn more.

[hosede] 25/10/2023 16:01

Yes I agree and Trump doesn't have much of a brain anyway. But Musk bypassed the filter when he made an "off the cuff" offer for Twitter - which they held him to.

[cfb2] 25/10/2023 12:29

Both are narcissists but Trump doesn't have a filter between his brain and his mouth. I get the impression that Musk puts quite a lot of effort into what he says, even though I often disagree with it.

Musk paid far too much for Twitter, but if it cuts 4 years from the development of his X platform it may still turn out to be a good investment. If you've got billions sitting around, and you're not interested in mansions or yachts, what do you spend it on? I get the impression that money itself doesn't motivate him, rather what the money allows him to achieve.

[hosede] 25/10/2023 10:54

Yes but like Trump, Musk is probably his own worst enemy. What a disaster his Twitter purchase has been. Neither can bear to be out of the limelight LOL.

[cfb2] 24/10/2023 10:21

No idea whether there is any truth to this and as a shareholder I don't care. Musk has shown contempt for the SEC and they are going after him for whatever they can make stick. If someone in Tesla made him a cup of coffee I'm sure they'd consider that a perk.

The worst that can happen here is a lot of lawyers fighting in court and the SEC spending a lot of money. Worst case scenario is a relatively small fine.

[hosede] 23/10/2023 18:02

More potential trouble
The problem is that if you set yourself up as "king of the Castle", everyone delights in taking pot shots at you.
A distraction for the company

[hosede] 23/10/2023 12:17

Indeed
I don't think buy and hold - which worked so well last century - will continue to do so. My Dad bought ICI shares in 1937 and held them un til his death 60 odd years later. I'm sure they kept up with inflatiion - and paid a healthy dividend hroughout!

[cfb2] 23/10/2023 00:25

Good luck to us all. Rough times are ahead.

[hosede] 22/10/2023 22:15

Well good luck, but I expect this bear market to take the US indices down - perhaps as much as 90% over the next 18 months - it's scarily like 1929

[cfb2] 22/10/2023 21:22

I already have some donkeys in my share portfolio. Going long on them isn't a winning formula.

[dominiccummings] 22/10/2023 19:49

#10358 short autos, long donkeys

[cfb2] 22/10/2023 12:50

Tesla's P/E is 60, compared to Ford's 12 and GM's 4. Nvidia is 99.

All depends on where you think Tesla's profit is going to come from. Referencing my post #10357 you'll see I think it is less dependent on EV cars and more on power storage, licensing software and robotaxis.

If you think Tesla's P/E should be close to Ford and GM then I would argue they are only profitable for ICE vehicles as the market shifts to EVs and are unlikely to see 2030 without a bailout. Might happen earlier if UAW get their way.

[hosede] 22/10/2023 12:07

Fair enough, but while three figure PEs might have been justified when bond yields were close to zero, anything above 25 looks exorbitant at present. The game I think has changed quite dramatically

[cfb2] 22/10/2023 11:50

hosede: Any sane person shares both your concern with the risks from climate change and exasperation of inept decision makers. Using the democratic process to remove Muppets from decision making and reducing our own carbon footprints should be our goal rather than panicked inactivity.

If your dystopian prediction comes to reality I expect I'll join everyone else in bartering with chickens, candles and water when all the economies fall.

Until that time I continue to look at profitable companies, like Tesla, that align with my values.

[hosede] 22/10/2023 10:31

CFB
the trouble with your analysis is that it projects the past into the future. I think global warming will upset that.

If this 0.7 degrees rise in a year becomes the norm, we will face extinction in a few decades, and even if it turns out to be a freak, the overall trend is clear. Standards of livig everywhewre are likely to fall dramatically - maybe indefinitely
For Robotaxis read bicycles

[cfb2] 21/10/2023 17:34

With respect to manufacturing of cars, which over the next decade will become the smaller proportion of Tesla's revenue, the idea is to get the cost down and the volume up. You're right, margins are smaller at the more affordable end of the market, but the overall profits should be similar because the volumes are greater.

Tesla are continually reviewing their car designs and shaving cents off whilst maintaining and improving the quality and features of their cars. One big saving will come from when their robots start working on the production line.

Have a watch of this video and tell me this approach isn't intended for Tesla's Optimus robots (note almost everything is added from the top with snap in construction):


The dominant percentage of Tesla's future will come from Robotaxis, energy storage ($0.5bn with a 90% YoY increase), licensing of their software, including FSD (they are already in talks with a major OEM about licensing FSD - perhaps Ford?).

We are in a FED bank forced downturn, as the US tries to unwind some of the QE and Covid spending, and i think this will reduce Tesla's growth but that is preferable to the bankruptcy/bail out of companies like GM, VW and Stellantis. Don't forget Tesla have a $26bn war chest.

In summary, from the manufacturing standpoint, I think Tesla will continue to reduce the profit margins to get volumes of cars out there knowing they will be highly profitable in the future for running robotaxis and selling highly profitable software. They are playing the long game, rather than the quarterly profit game the markets like.

[dominiccummings] 20/10/2023 09:51

#10355 but don't forget the 'add ons' that the competition don't get. Monthly charges for on line, margins on superchargers.

[hosede] 20/10/2023 09:46

But the problem is that the more affordable the car the more competitive the market and the more profit margins are squeezed - particularly in a downturn.

[cfb2] 19/10/2023 14:39

Tesla strategy has always been to make affordable cars.



...The strategy of Tesla is to enter at the high end of the market, where customers are prepared to pay a premium, and then drive down market as fast as possible to higher unit volume and lower prices with each successive model....

[hosede] 19/10/2023 10:53

Dominic
Due to crass ZIRP, world debt is now ca $150 trn!!
The servicing of that debt at 5% interest costs 7.5 trn pa or about $1000 for every man woman and child on the planet.
given that maybe as many as 95% of people couldn't contribute a dime, that's 20k each for those who can. - ie around $80,000 per family of four.
It's simply NOT going to happen.
Evergrande and Country garden are the first casualties - there will be countless more

Musk had a brilliant little comopany making cars that people desperately wanted at almost any price. Like Colin Chapman on steroids!!
So what do you do? Up production? NO!! Think like the Sibyll.
Cut the numbers and up the price.
But Musk has an ego problem - like Trump except that Musk has huge talent Trump has none!
I'm afraid it's going to cost him.

[hosede] 18/10/2023 22:06

Realist Dominic!