1x Tsla Discussion Threads

[hosede] 23/1/2024 17:51

OK - but the UK is a pretty small percentage of total world market - and while it would be nice if it did, climate change in the UK does not relate to how much Britain does in combatting it.
Again as I have said before, I think the the industrial revolution has set off an irreversible cycle which has occurred several times in the past; where the earth - quite quickly in geological terms - loses its polar ice caps and warms by anything up to 15 degrees C.
Still we have invented AI: effectively a silicon based biosystem that has so many advantages over carbon. It can survive over a wider temperature range, it doesn't need to eat or drink, pee or poo or breathe in oxygen. Just a solar panel on it's back and maybe a battery, and when the sun finally absorbs earth it will be able to survive immense journeys thru space in search of a new home, simply by going into hibernation until a new light source wakes it up.

Maybe you can answer another question.
The new James Bell telescope has made amazing discoveries, but when it finds a new galaxy or group of galaxies, how does it know how far away they are? Clearly the Doppler effect (on the hydrogen (Balmer) lines I guess ) tells you how fast it is nmoving away - but can that be translated into how far away it is?

[cfb2] 23/1/2024 17:24

EVs are about 20% heavier than the ICE equivalent. There are some exceptions, such as the GMC Hummer weighing over 4000Kg, but that is because it's huge and to make it go more than 10 miles they've loaded it up with batteries - designed, built and driven by Neanderthals.

Batteries are heavy when compared to the equivalent energy from fuel and the tank. As you point out, the more batteries you need the more batteries you need to move the batteries you've just added. Similar to rockets, you need fuel to carry the fuel!

Fewer batteries with higher energy density and smaller cars is the way to go. I'd bet the majority of journeys made in 5/6/7 seat cars only has the driver in the car.

Tesla will be making a smaller EV in 2025 for the mass market. To make them profitably they must scale to millions per year. To achieve the scale and cost they need vast quantities of batteries, various technical advancements and probably their robots on the production line.

I don't think it is greed, I think Tesla is taking the necessary steps to progress to the mass market. This has always been Tesla's plan, Musk published it back in 2006. Here it is for you to read:


...The strategy of Tesla is to enter at the high end of the market, where customers are prepared to pay a premium, and then drive down market as fast as possible to higher unit volume and lower prices with each successive model.

Without giving away too much, I can say that the second model will be a sporty four door family car at roughly half the $89k price point of the Tesla Roadster and the third model will be even more affordable. In keeping with a fast growing technology company, all free cash flow is plowed back into R&D to drive down the costs and bring the follow on products to market as fast as possible. When someone buys the Tesla Roadster sports car, they are actually helping pay for development of the low cost family car.

Where is the green energy going to come from? Well, 40% of the UK's energy was green in 2022 and it's steadily increasing. The major drag is how quickly energy sources can be added to the grid. Extreme short nearsightedness by our government and energy grid are likely to be our biggest problem with respect to energy independence.

Sources:


hxxps://www.statista.com/topics/4849/renewable-energy-industry-in-the-uk/#topicOverview

[hosede] 23/1/2024 15:32

cfb
I think it's the Green energy that is the problem- where is it going to come from? and with "Tesla-like" EVs weighing far more than traditional ICEs they are going to need that much more energy to push them along
As I've said before, small "town" EVs look a sensible idea: but as there is little profit in making them, neither Musk nor others are interested.
In the end it's all about GREED!

[hosede] 23/1/2024 12:58

Yes - could turn out to be a "nine day wonder"
The idea that EVs are going to "save the planet" is becoming more and more dubious

[johnwise] 22/1/2024 21:29

VIDEO

Electric Vehicle Owners Are Frustrated and Demand the Return of Gas Cars

[johnwise] 22/1/2024 21:16

Tesla’s Share Price: What to Expect from Q4 Results

[hosede] 22/1/2024 17:13

Q4 earnings expected to be about 75c and I can't see things getting much better for Tesla for quite some time. Time it was rerated as a (struggling) car company - just like all the rest of them.

[hosede] 18/1/2024 17:21

The very cold weather both here and in the US won't be helping. I gather the range of all EVs is considerably reduced - simple thermodynamics really

[cfb2] 14/1/2024 18:09

EVs, in their current form, have been around for over 14 years. Sufficient time to gather statistics and I don't expect this ratio will change much with more data. EVs are likely to become safer with respect to thermal management not the other way round.

Multi storey car parks have burnt down long before EVs ever existed. What has changed is the media blame it on an EV car, even when that isn't the case. The recent Luton one was blamed on an EV by the media. It was later found to be caused by a Land Rover.

hxxps://cleantechnica.com/2023/10/15/land-rovers-keep-catching-fire-but-evs-get-blamed-for-luton-carpark-fire/

Fire regulations change and they will improve on how to deal with EV fires.

[cfb2] 14/1/2024 17:34

What CNBC wrote in the article is not what was said in the interview. Schree talked about price cuts to the cars and the resale value. Cramer tried to get Schree to talk about accidents and repairs but he didn't bite so they wrote it anyway. Here is the relevant part of the transcript from CNBC (at 4:04):


Cramer: ...there must be something wrong with EVs, in the sense that maybe they are hard to repair, maybe people don't necessarily know how to drive them. Maybe there are accidents because people or they wreck the cars because they don't know how to do it."

Schree: Well, look. We do two things when we rent you a car. A, we make sure you can pay for it and B, we presume you can drive it. And we ask for your licence on the latter. The reality on EVs is that there are millions of Americans, in fact millions of consumers around the world who are knowledgeable experienced in EVs and they ride them well. There are those that experiment and their knowledge of how to drive this car, which is a little different than a combustion engine car may be part of the issue. I would point out that our joint venture and demand we have with Uber is proving very successful and has grown and talked about on our third quarter call...

[llef] 14/1/2024 15:44

cfb2, in your commentary on Hertz, you didn't mention the higher then expected repair costs for EVs that they cited.

"The rental car company cited Tesla’s price cuts negatively impacting the resale value of its EVs, and higher than expected repair costs for EVs as a reason to slow its pace of electrification"

[cfb2] 14/1/2024 15:33

I have provided statistical proof that EVs are less likely to combust. It's not 1 or 2 cars different, it is almost two orders of magnitude! I am quoting facts rather than feelings, or supposed intuition, or insinuation. Obviously it's not as simple as both cars have 12v batteries therefore they have a similar chance of catching fire. Having done some hasty research, the most common cause for ICE vehicle fires is arson but after that a leak of the fuel line, then it's tyres/brakes.

Yes, if an EV is put in a fire it's a problem for an EV resulting from the Lithium in the batteries and a long intense burn, but then an ICE car is full of petrol that explodes, quite often taking out every car in the vicinity. Personally I'd rather have the car warning me to get out a few minutes before it goes into thermal runaway than being engulfed in a fireball. But to each their own.

Different EV manufacturers have taken different approaches for the batteries. For the Tesla they are now part of the structural integrity. Having the battery mounted low does put it at risk of going over an object that can get through the reinforced underside of the car. From collisions, if the mega castings are sufficiently damaged to damage the battery then the car is likely to be a write off anyway. Experience with other manufacturers varies significantly from this.

[hosede] 12/1/2024 10:28

Johnwise
Spot on I think. small EV town cars with ca 100km range could be useful - that is where the polution is worst, but 3 ton monsters with huge batteries no!

[johnwise] 11/1/2024 20:55

VIA peterbarnes35

Hertz to sell one third of it’s EV’s — customers don’t want them and they cost too much to fix

With the western world hurtling into new cars that are more costly, inconvenient, slower to refuel, and prone to burning down carparks and cargo ships, it was only a matter of time before the cracks in the socialist car market started to show.

[hosede] 07/1/2024 13:34

Whatever the performance of the Co., a big part of Tesla's attraction has always been Musk himself. The implication that his aura may be slipping could weigh heavily on the share price over the coming months.

[hosede] 03/1/2024 14:01

Clocktower
That's true as long as they are making a positive margin on each sale. An article I saw somewhere (forgotten exactly) suggested that in China, variable costs on one model had risen above the selling price in the last couple of months

[skinny] 03/1/2024 07:38

This may be of interest to some on here :-

[clocktower] 02/1/2024 21:10

Hosede, it certainly does matter how many the sell, if they sell “X” they are losing “Y” on everyone they sell but if they sell “Z” then they make Profit on every sale, as the fixed costs are only covered once they reach the sweet spot and above.

It is therefore better to sell volumes at lower margins than a few that they make big profits on per unit.